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USAF Tropical Cyclone Support and Needs

USAF Tropical Cyclone Support and Needs. Col Mark Zettlemoyer AF/A3O-WX 2 March 2009. Overview Air Force Weather. Tropical Cyclone Support … 10 Years Ago Current Forecast Accuracy & Needs Critical Partnerships Air Force Support Research and Ops … Need your continued support.

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USAF Tropical Cyclone Support and Needs

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  1. USAF Tropical Cyclone Support and Needs Col Mark Zettlemoyer AF/A3O-WX 2 March 2009

  2. OverviewAir Force Weather • Tropical Cyclone Support … 10 Years Ago • Current Forecast Accuracy & Needs • Critical Partnerships • Air Force Support • Research and Ops … Need your continued support

  3. USAF Tropical Cyclone Support10 Years Ago • Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO • Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy • Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler • The continued challenge: work the 10-year plan to improve forecast and warning accuracy by a factor of 3 or more

  4. USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportForecast Accuracy Progress thus far … 30 years of focused R&D and T2 WPAC Intensity Error WPAC Track Error Impressive! Improvement factor 2.0 – 2.5! We must work this.

  5. JTWC Operational Priorities • Intensity guidance/rapid intensification • TC/environmental characterization • Genesis guidance • Structure guidance

  6. How to get thereCritical Partnerships Operational partnerships USAF/Navy TPC, CPHC NOAA: NWS, NESDIS, OAR RSMCs JTWC

  7. USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportStrengths for Research • AF Weather has near-real time access to interrogatable imagery • Could be formatted and disseminated for research projects • Hurricane Hunters – WC130J • AFRC environmental recon mission corrects/validates satellite interrogation techniques • Leverage UAS capabilities

  8. USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportStrengths for Research • Continues to send officers through Naval post graduate programs to earn tropical-related masters degrees • Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) operationalizes research through its techniques development section • JTWC data available in digital formats • Easily leveraged for research

  9. USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportCommunity Help Need research community support • Top priority is intensity/structure…need improved: • Specification of cyclone structure (wind strength and distribution) • Satellite-based intensity/structure estimates • Forecast techniques for cyclone intensity/structure changes over time • Climate change influence on cyclone tracks / intensities • Impacts on strategic / failing states (e.g., Africa, Indian Ocean)

  10. Operations input into research decisions (OFCM WG/TCR) Communications and interoperability (e.g., ATCF) National and international collaboration Data exchange, modeling Space-based sensing incl scatterometry and MW imagers/sounders USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportCommunity Help

  11. Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler USAF Tropical Cyclone Support

  12. USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Questions?

  13. USAF Tropical Cyclone SupportAFIT Thesis Topics • Quantify the amount of forecast error attributed to initial position error in the major models • Determine intensity using passive microwave radiance data • Determine if rapid fluctuations in typhoon intensity could have been influenced by ocean heat content and TC heat potential • Identify sources of large forecast track errors • Develop rules of thumb to improve rapid intensification forecasting 24 to 48 hours before it occurs • Identify factors that may enhance or inhibit tropical cyclone development in the western North Pacific • Develop a monsoon depression climatology • Develop a midget tropical cyclone climatology

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