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Land Use Modeling Workshop

Land Use Modeling Workshop. By Dr. John Abraham and Dr. Eric Miller. Toronto, 2013. Agenda. Welcome and Opening Remarks Overview of Integrated Land Use-Transportation Modeling Questions and answers Use of Integrated Models in other Jurisdictions Policy capabilities

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Land Use Modeling Workshop

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  1. Land Use Modeling Workshop By Dr. John Abraham and Dr. Eric Miller Toronto, 2013

  2. Agenda • Welcome and Opening Remarks • Overview of Integrated Land Use-Transportation Modeling • Questions and answers • Use of Integrated Models in other Jurisdictions • Policy capabilities • Applications around the world and in specific jurisdictions • Questions and answers • Discussion on current practices in land-use and transportation forecasting and policy in the Greater Golden Horseshoe area (Round table discussion) • Overview of data requirements for Integrated Models • Data categories • Current data availability from regions, and data quality (Round table discussion) • Wrap up and closing remarks

  3. I. Overview of Land Use Modeling

  4. Need for Models • Models in general • Complex system • Positive and negative feedback • Common sense sometimes wrong • E.g. BraessParodox: adding a link to a network can make travel times worse for everyone. • Integrated models • Transportation problems are not just transportation problems. • Quality of life • Environment • Economic performance • Land use solutions to transportation problems

  5. Transportation and urban form are fundamentally linked. How we build our city directly determines travel needs, viability of alternative travel modes, etc. Transportation, in turn, influences land development and location choices of people & firms.

  6. Demographics Network Flows To understand these complex transportation – urban form interactions and to analyze the wide variety of policies (transportation, housing, etc.) that affect the urban system requires integrated, comprehensive models of transportation and land use. INPUTS URBAN ACTIVITY SYSTEM TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Land Development Transportation Network Location Choice Automobile Ownership Regional Economics Travel Demand Activity Schedules • Government Policies • Infrastructure investment • Pricing • Regulatory • … Activity Patterns

  7. Why build integrated models? Integrated models provide the opportunity to consistently and comprehensively explore the intended and unintended, interconnected consequences of transportation and land use polices in complex urban regions, and to generate consistent forecasts of transportation conditions and land use patterns.

  8. Dual role • Consistency of Forecasts • Land development patterns • Local demographics and business/firmographics • Travel patterns and transportation system performance • Forecast detail • Policy Analysis • Policies in one domain (e.g. education) cause problems/solution in another (e.g. transportation) • Focus on goals (e.g. quality of life, economic performance) vs. objectives (e.g. congestion relief, budget reduction)

  9. Policy Example 1: Major roadway investment What would be the impact of tearing down the Gardiner Expressway? What if it wasn’t replaced? What transit options might exist? What would be the impact on population & employment distributions? … 2040_A Target Year (Policy Option A) 2010 evolve Base Year branchand evolve 2015 2040_B Target Year (Policy Option B) Event Year 2040_C Target Year (Policy Option C)

  10. Example 2: Land Use Policy • What will be the impact of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) greenbelt on: • housing density & prices? • employment concentration? • economic performance? • transit viability? • congestion? • emissions? • …

  11. Example 3:Transit Infrastructure Investment • Formal models are essential for systematically and objectively evaluating the transportation & land use impacts of alternative transit infrastructure investments. • Location • Technology • Network design • Service characteristics • Ignoring land use impacts of major transit investments may result in significantly underestimating investment benefits. • Assuming transit friendly development could overestimate benefits.

  12. Example 4: Pricing Policy Impacts • Road pricing can potentially influence trip-makers’ choice of: • time of day • destination • route • mode • It can also affect longer-term location choices of households and firms and the evolution of the built urban form.

  13. Evolution of Frameworks Leontief: Input-Output Model Random UtilityTheory Alonso/Mille/Muth: Urban Economic Bid-Rent Theory Microsimulation Lowry Gravity Model 1960 Spatial Interaction DRAM/EMPAL HLFMII+ 1970 Spatial Input-Output MEPLAN; TRANUS 1980 Geographic Information System Aggregate Equilibrium Discrete-Choice METROSIM; MUSSA 1990 Microsimulation Dynamic Discrete-Choice (UrbanSim, ILUTE) Spatially Detailed Rule-based Planning Tools Index; Places; What If? PECAS AA 2000 PECAS SD 2010 After Waddell, P. (2011). http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/webinars/flua1

  14. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Air Pollution Urban Sprawl Congestion Accidents Sedentary Lifestyle Global Climate Change Respiratory & Other Diseases Loss of Farmland, Natural & Urban Habitat Loss of Productivity & Leisure Time; Stress Injuries/Deaths Productivity/Property Loss Obesity, Other Health Problems - Accessibility to Activities / Mobility + QUALITY OF LIFE Participation in Social, Recreational & Economic Activities Economic Productivity The 3 urban meta-issues of sustainability (environmental, social, economic), efficiency and equity are all profoundly influenced by urban transportation system design, especially the relative roles of transit & autos within the system.

  15. Usefulness of Integrated Models • Provide a means for evaluating alternative investment options on an objective, “level playing field” • Systematic estimation of benefits/costs across cities & projects: Basis for rationale investment decision-making. • e.g., the “New Starts” program of the U.S. Federal Transit Administration. • Relevant performance measures very difficult to compute in the absence of formal models

  16. Usefulness of Models, cont’d • Enforce the linkage between transportation and land use policy implementation • The use of integrated models encourages (enforces?) the need to consider transportation and land use holistically. • Full impacts of transportation investment cannot be realized without considering land use impacts and the coordinated implementation of land use strategies.

  17. Usefulness of Models, cont’d • If sufficiently comprehensive, models provide the capability to explore the short- and longer-term feedbacks of a given policy through the urban system.

  18. Usefulness of Models, cont’d • Models are another “voice at the table” against which judgments, prior opinions, etc. can be compared. • Models are not perfect (far from it) and do not replace professional judgment and decision-making. • But they inform decision-making and can challenge possibly biased or ill-informed prior opinions (e.g. common sense is sometimes wrong). • Properly used, models can raise the quality of debate, expand the range of issues/options/impacts considered, and lead to more informed (hopefully better) decisions.

  19. Usefulness of Models, cont’d • Models provide the database and software framework for on-going system monitoring and assessment of the performance of implemented systems. • The data assembled for model development is, itself, a valuable tool for diagnosing systems and policy analysis. • Modelling forces one to systematically assess “what we know”, prior beliefs, etc. • The knowledge/understanding gained during modelling is directly useful in policy analysis.

  20. Non-Modelling Approaches In the absence of formal land use models (the usual case), scenario-based extrapolations of population and employment by zone are used to provide inputs to the 4-stage travel demand modelling system.

  21. Non-Modelling Approaches, cont’d • Problems include: • Scenarios are often unrealistic, and/or internally • inconsistent • Scenarios are often inconsistent with the • transportation system • Lack of “feedback”/interaction between land use • and transportation sectors • Lack of detail in attributes of pop. & emp. • Lack of policy sensitivity • Separation of land use planning from • transportation planning

  22. Features in Location Choice Models Bid-rent (land goes to highest/best use) Space use/yield (rent is per unit space) (Short term) equilibrium, solve for rent/price Random Utility: we are not all the same! Multiple markets (not just CBD focused) Inputs and outputs Microsimulation

  23. Features in Space Supply Models Price from supply vs demand Demand site variables (e.g. proximity to arterial preferred by commercial use) Supply site variables (E.g. can’t build in the swamp) Risk/Uncertainty Policy/Zoning Subdivision of parcels Land Assembly/project returns to scale Construction industry capacity

  24. IT Features in Models User interface (Input/Output) Tight Integration with Travel Model GIS Integration Database integration Open Source Server Cloud computing Language

  25. Other Aspects of Modelling Platforms Documentation Community Support Don’t forget features ➛ Complexity

  26. Location Choice

  27. Space Supply

  28. Information Technology

  29. II. Use of Integrated models in other jurisdictions • Policy capabilities • Applications in other jurisdictions • Around the world • Specific experiences • Questions & Answers

  30. What kind of policy capabilities of current LUM? Land Use Source: HUNT, J. D., D. S. KRIGER, and E. J. MILLER, 2005

  31. What kind of policy capabilities of current LUM? Transportation Source: HUNT, J. D., D. S. KRIGER, and E. J. MILLER, 2005

  32. What kind of policy capabilities of current LUM? Others: energy and environmental related

  33. Use of Land Use Models: Applications in other Jurisdictions

  34. Land Use Models – Around the World

  35. Land Use Models – Active Status From 203 LUM applications developed around the world, 21 were confirmed to be Active ( ). There is a couple of applications that need to be confirmed to be included as Active.

  36. Oregon – the modeling experience

  37. Oregon – the modeling experience

  38. Oregon – the modeling experience Rule of a half measure by zone for households for 2025 (corridor scenario versus total fail scenario)

  39. Caracas – the modeling experience

  40. Caracas – the modeling experience

  41. Sacramento – Example from the Urban Land Use and Transportation Center UC DAVIS

  42. Sacramento – Example from the Urban Land Use and Transportation Center UC DAVIS

  43. Baltimore

  44. Baltimore Change in Residential Space (S32 – base)

  45. Atlanta

  46. Atlanta Change in benefits by activities between I01f and NB01 from 2005 to 2040

  47. Atlanta Household Change Forecast 2005 to 2022 (each dot = 600 households)

  48. Toronto <Get from Eric when he comes back from vacation>

  49. References: Hunt, J. D., D. S. Kriger, and E. J. Miller. Current operational urban land‐use–transport modelling frameworks: A review. Transport Reviews, Vol. 25, No. 3, 2005, pp. 329–376. Bridges J, Baber C, Abraham JE, Muhsen AR, De Silva D and Hunt JD, 2011, Investigating Zoning Policy with the Baltimore PECAS Model. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Lake Louise AB, Canada, July 2011 HBA Specto Incorporated, ARC PECAS model for Atlanta Region, Final Report. September 2012. http://www.modelistica.com/english/projects Fuenmayor GJ, Hunt JD, Barboza CC, Brandt C and Martinez J, 2011, Estimating Floorspace by Category for PECAS Caracas Model. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Lake Louise AB, Canada, July 2011. Rodier CJ, Spiller M, Abraham JE and Hunt JD, 2011, Potential Economic Consequences of Local Nonconformity to Regional Land Use and Transportation Plans Using a Spatial Economic Model. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Lake Louise AB, Canada, July 2011. Rodier CJ, Abraham JE, Dix BN and Hunt JD, 2010, Equity Analysis of Land Use and Transport Plans Using an Integrated Spatial Model. Preprints for the 89th Annual Transportation Research Board Conference, Washington DC, USA, January 2010

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