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Land Use Modeling Workshop. By Dr. John Abraham and Dr. Eric Miller. Toronto, 2013. Agenda. Welcome and Opening Remarks Overview of Integrated Land Use-Transportation Modeling Questions and answers Use of Integrated Models in other Jurisdictions Policy capabilities

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land use modeling workshop

Land Use Modeling Workshop

By Dr. John Abraham and Dr. Eric Miller

Toronto, 2013

agenda
Agenda
  • Welcome and Opening Remarks
  • Overview of Integrated Land Use-Transportation Modeling
    • Questions and answers
  • Use of Integrated Models in other Jurisdictions
    • Policy capabilities
    • Applications around the world and in specific jurisdictions
    • Questions and answers
  • Discussion on current practices in land-use and transportation forecasting and policy in the Greater Golden Horseshoe area (Round table discussion)
  • Overview of data requirements for Integrated Models
    • Data categories
    • Current data availability from regions, and data quality (Round table discussion)
  • Wrap up and closing remarks
need for models
Need for Models
  • Models in general
    • Complex system
    • Positive and negative feedback
    • Common sense sometimes wrong
      • E.g. BraessParodox: adding a link to a network can make travel times worse for everyone.
  • Integrated models
    • Transportation problems are not just transportation problems.
      • Quality of life
      • Environment
      • Economic performance
    • Land use solutions to transportation problems
slide5

Transportation and urban form

are fundamentally linked. How

we build our city directly

determines travel needs, viability

of alternative travel modes, etc.

Transportation, in turn, influences

land development and location

choices of people & firms.

slide6

Demographics

Network Flows

To understand these complex transportation – urban form interactions

and to analyze the wide variety of policies (transportation, housing,

etc.) that affect the urban system requires integrated, comprehensive

models of transportation and land use.

INPUTS

URBAN ACTIVITY SYSTEM

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Land

Development

Transportation

Network

Location Choice

Automobile

Ownership

Regional

Economics

Travel

Demand

Activity

Schedules

  • Government Policies
  • Infrastructure investment
  • Pricing
  • Regulatory

Activity Patterns

why build integrated models
Why build integrated models?

Integrated models provide the opportunity to consistently and comprehensively explore the intended and unintended, interconnected consequences of transportation and land use polices in complex urban regions, and to generate consistent forecasts of transportation conditions and land use patterns.

dual role
Dual role
  • Consistency of Forecasts
    • Land development patterns
    • Local demographics and business/firmographics
    • Travel patterns and transportation system performance
    • Forecast detail
  • Policy Analysis
    • Policies in one domain (e.g. education) cause problems/solution in another (e.g. transportation)
    • Focus on goals (e.g. quality of life, economic performance) vs. objectives (e.g. congestion relief, budget reduction)
policy example 1 major roadway investment
Policy Example 1: Major roadway investment

What would be the impact of tearing down the

Gardiner Expressway? What if it wasn’t

replaced? What transit options might exist?

What would be the impact on population &

employment distributions? …

2040_A

Target Year

(Policy Option A)

2010

evolve

Base Year

branchand

evolve

2015

2040_B

Target Year

(Policy Option B)

Event Year

2040_C

Target Year

(Policy Option C)

example 2 land use policy
Example 2: Land Use Policy
  • What will be the impact of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) greenbelt on:
  • housing density & prices?
  • employment concentration?
  • economic performance?
  • transit viability?
  • congestion?
  • emissions?
example 3 transit infrastructure investment
Example 3:Transit Infrastructure Investment
  • Formal models are essential for systematically and objectively evaluating the transportation & land use impacts of alternative transit infrastructure investments.
  • Location
  • Technology
  • Network design
  • Service characteristics
  • Ignoring land use impacts of major transit investments may result in significantly underestimating investment benefits.
  • Assuming transit friendly development could overestimate benefits.
example 4 pricing policy impacts
Example 4: Pricing Policy Impacts
  • Road pricing can potentially influence trip-makers’ choice of:
    • time of day
    • destination
    • route
    • mode
  • It can also affect longer-term location choices of households and firms and the evolution of the built urban form.
evolution of frameworks
Evolution of Frameworks

Leontief: Input-Output Model

Random UtilityTheory

Alonso/Mille/Muth:

Urban Economic

Bid-Rent Theory

Microsimulation

Lowry

Gravity Model

1960

Spatial Interaction

DRAM/EMPAL

HLFMII+

1970

Spatial Input-Output MEPLAN; TRANUS

1980

Geographic Information System

Aggregate Equilibrium

Discrete-Choice

METROSIM; MUSSA

1990

Microsimulation Dynamic

Discrete-Choice

(UrbanSim, ILUTE)

Spatially Detailed

Rule-based Planning Tools

Index; Places; What If?

PECAS AA

2000

PECAS SD

2010

After Waddell, P. (2011). http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/webinars/flua1

slide14

Greenhouse Gas

Emissions

Air Pollution

Urban Sprawl

Congestion

Accidents

Sedentary

Lifestyle

Global Climate

Change

Respiratory &

Other Diseases

Loss of Farmland, Natural

& Urban Habitat

Loss of Productivity &

Leisure Time; Stress

Injuries/Deaths

Productivity/Property Loss

Obesity, Other

Health Problems

-

Accessibility to Activities / Mobility

+

QUALITY

OF LIFE

Participation in Social, Recreational & Economic Activities

Economic Productivity

The 3 urban meta-issues of sustainability (environmental, social, economic), efficiency and equity are all profoundly influenced by urban transportation system design, especially the relative roles of transit & autos within the system.

usefulness of integrated models
Usefulness of Integrated Models
  • Provide a means for evaluating alternative investment options on an objective, “level playing field”
    • Systematic estimation of benefits/costs across cities & projects: Basis for rationale investment decision-making.
    • e.g., the “New Starts” program of the U.S. Federal Transit Administration.
    • Relevant performance measures very difficult to compute in the absence of formal models
usefulness of models cont d
Usefulness of Models, cont’d
  • Enforce the linkage between transportation and land use policy implementation
    • The use of integrated models encourages (enforces?) the need to consider transportation and land use holistically.
    • Full impacts of transportation investment cannot be realized without considering land use impacts and the coordinated implementation of land use strategies.
usefulness of models cont d1
Usefulness of Models, cont’d
  • If sufficiently comprehensive, models provide the capability to explore the short- and longer-term feedbacks of a given policy through the urban system.
usefulness of models cont d2
Usefulness of Models, cont’d
  • Models are another “voice at the table” against which judgments, prior opinions, etc. can be compared.
    • Models are not perfect (far from it) and do not replace professional judgment and decision-making.
    • But they inform decision-making and can challenge possibly biased or ill-informed prior opinions (e.g. common sense is sometimes wrong).
    • Properly used, models can raise the quality of debate, expand the range of issues/options/impacts considered, and lead to more informed (hopefully better) decisions.
usefulness of models cont d3
Usefulness of Models, cont’d
  • Models provide the database and software framework for on-going system monitoring and assessment of the performance of implemented systems.
  • The data assembled for model development is, itself, a valuable tool for diagnosing systems and policy analysis.
  • Modelling forces one to systematically assess “what we know”, prior beliefs, etc.
  • The knowledge/understanding gained during modelling is directly useful in policy analysis.
non modelling approaches
Non-Modelling Approaches

In the absence of formal land use models (the

usual case), scenario-based extrapolations of

population and employment by zone are used to

provide inputs to the 4-stage travel demand

modelling system.

non modelling approaches cont d
Non-Modelling Approaches, cont’d
  • Problems include:
  • Scenarios are often unrealistic, and/or internally
  • inconsistent
  • Scenarios are often inconsistent with the
  • transportation system
  • Lack of “feedback”/interaction between land use
  • and transportation sectors
  • Lack of detail in attributes of pop. & emp.
  • Lack of policy sensitivity
  • Separation of land use planning from
  • transportation planning
features in location choice models
Features in Location Choice Models

Bid-rent (land goes to highest/best use)

Space use/yield (rent is per unit space)

(Short term) equilibrium, solve for rent/price

Random Utility: we are not all the same!

Multiple markets (not just CBD focused)

Inputs and outputs

Microsimulation

features in space supply models
Features in Space Supply Models

Price from supply vs demand

Demand site variables (e.g. proximity to arterial preferred by commercial use)

Supply site variables (E.g. can’t build in the swamp)

Risk/Uncertainty

Policy/Zoning

Subdivision of parcels

Land Assembly/project returns to scale

Construction industry capacity

it features in models
IT Features in Models

User interface (Input/Output)

Tight Integration with Travel Model

GIS Integration

Database integration

Open Source

Server

Cloud computing

Language

other aspects of modelling platforms
Other Aspects of Modelling Platforms

Documentation

Community

Support

Don’t forget features ➛ Complexity

ii use of integrated models in other jurisdictions
II. Use of Integrated models in other jurisdictions
  • Policy capabilities
  • Applications in other jurisdictions
    • Around the world
    • Specific experiences
  • Questions & Answers
slide30

What kind of policy capabilities of current LUM?

Land Use

Source: HUNT, J. D., D. S. KRIGER, and E. J. MILLER, 2005

slide31

What kind of policy capabilities of current LUM?

Transportation

Source: HUNT, J. D., D. S. KRIGER, and E. J. MILLER, 2005

slide32

What kind of policy capabilities of current LUM?

Others: energy and environmental related

land use models active status
Land Use Models – Active Status

From 203 LUM applications developed around the world, 21 were confirmed to be Active ( ).

There is a couple of applications that need to be confirmed to be included as Active.

oregon the modeling experience2
Oregon – the modeling experience

Rule of a half measure by zone for households for 2025 (corridor scenario versus total fail scenario)

slide44

Baltimore

Change in Residential Space (S32 – base)

slide46

Atlanta

Change in benefits by activities between I01f and NB01 from 2005 to 2040

slide47

Atlanta

Household Change Forecast 2005 to 2022 (each dot = 600 households)

slide48

Toronto

<Get from Eric when he comes back from vacation>

references
References:

Hunt, J. D., D. S. Kriger, and E. J. Miller. Current operational urban land‐use–transport modelling frameworks: A review. Transport Reviews, Vol. 25, No. 3, 2005, pp. 329–376.

Bridges J, Baber C, Abraham JE, Muhsen AR, De Silva D and Hunt JD, 2011, Investigating Zoning Policy with the Baltimore PECAS Model. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Lake Louise AB, Canada, July 2011

HBA Specto Incorporated, ARC PECAS model for Atlanta Region, Final Report. September 2012.

http://www.modelistica.com/english/projects

Fuenmayor GJ, Hunt JD, Barboza CC, Brandt C and Martinez J, 2011, Estimating Floorspace by Category for PECAS Caracas Model. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Lake Louise AB, Canada, July 2011.

Rodier CJ, Spiller M, Abraham JE and Hunt JD, 2011, Potential Economic Consequences of Local Nonconformity to Regional Land Use and Transportation Plans Using a Spatial Economic Model. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Lake Louise AB, Canada, July 2011.

Rodier CJ, Abraham JE, Dix BN and Hunt JD, 2010, Equity Analysis of Land Use and Transport Plans Using an Integrated Spatial Model. Preprints for the 89th Annual Transportation Research Board Conference, Washington DC, USA, January 2010