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7 th International Congress and Exhibition for South-East Europe April 2011. SMART GRID REGULATION. Kenneth Lefkowitz Managing Partner New Europe Corporate Advisory Ltd. www.necadvisory.com. Smart Grid Regulation. Behavior modification. Smart Grid Regulation.
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7thInternational Congress and Exhibition for South-East Europe April 2011 SMART GRID REGULATION Kenneth Lefkowitz Managing Partner New Europe Corporate Advisory Ltd. www.necadvisory.com
Smart Grid Regulation Behavior modification
Smart Grid Regulation Oil prices and fuel efficiency • Today the US economy uses about the same amount of oil as it did in the late 1970s, but the economy is 125% larger; • Despite the seven-fold increase in the real price of oil from 1960 to today, consumers spend about 25% less of their income on energy Source: Seeking Alpha
Smart Grid Regulation Effective communication of incentives Information overload Distributed decision-making VS • Market price and consumption information must be broadly accessible • Incentive framework must be stable for long-term effectiveness
Smart Grid Regulation Benefits from energy efficiency The total reduction of 18% in the USA does not include THEFTS. In Bulgaria for example, estimated commercial losses (thefts and bad debts) are 10-11% Source: US Department of energy, Cornivus University
Smart Grid Regulation Creating the right incentives • Liberalized and liquid electricity market • Investment is rewarded • 3) Dynamic pricing: • Retail • Wholesale • System services Source: GTM Research
Smart Grid Regulation Regulation Source :Eurelectric, Energy Agency Of The Republic Of Serbia, Energo, ERRA, NordPool Consulting, Eurostat, Herbert Smith Retail prices of electricity are for 2010, household band C
Smart Grid Regulation From cost-based regulation to incentive regulation Cost-plus regulation Revenue cap Source : KEMA Consulting, Webinar Training on Regulation 2009
Smart Grid Regulation Liberalization of cross-border trade Implied auction Candidates Preparing for implied auction Explicit auction Source :NordPool Consulting
Smart Grid Regulation Costs and benefits Investment Payback Users • More expensive “smart” appliances; • Share consumption data; • Interruptibility; • Reduced usage and lower bills; • Produce and sell own electricity; • Comprehensive energy management Distribution firms • Drastic change in business model – from selling a commodity to providing a service. • Lower sales • Cost – additional investments for upgrading the traditional grid. • Less thefts; • Improved efficiency of the grid and less investments on expanding capacity; • Remote reading of monitors • Better security and outage detection; • Predictability of energy demand • Intelligence on consumer habits Producers • Lower overall demand; • Demand shifted away from peak hours when price is the highest; • Improved grid access for renewables; • Greater dispatch efficiency for base-load and mid-load plants
Smart Grid Regulation Conclusion • In conclusion: • A price shock will be instrumental to spur efficiency; • With a clear and stable framework, investment in smart grids will take place, bringing net benefits for the whole value chain. • The way forward: • Remove populism from price regulation; • Regional DAM and hourly market and regional exchanges; • Improved cross-border trade; • Dynamic retail pricing; • Incentive-based regulation of natural monopolies.
Smart Grid Regulation Thank you for your attention! Questions? Kenneth LefkowitzManaging Partner New Europe Corporate Advisory Ltd. mob: + 359 888 637-053e-mail: kenneth.lefkowitz@necadvisory.com
Smart Grid Regulation Smart grids in Europe Status Regulatory support World leader in smart meters, with 85% of homes equipped. In 2006 Enel completed the connection of +30mn users. One of the reasons for the whirlwind rollout – rampant thefts of electricity. Italy • Digital smart meters are mandatory since 2006. Government’s vision is 95% of customers of the 100 utility firms to be on smart meters by 2011. RO First smart grid in Eastern Europe – a pilot project in Brasov launched in Dec 2010 with Electrica Sud Distribution. New energy strategy expected to include an action plan for smart grid development SR 100% penetration of smart meters in transmission and 1% penetration in distribution Smart metering roll-out plan until 2013. Budget of €75mn with loans from EBRD and EIB. Regulator agreed to approve costs. GR The distribution company has deployed only small-scale pilot projects so far, but is considering a smart grid alliance. Smart metering roll-out plan until 2013. Budget of €75mn with loans from EBRD and EIB. Regulator agreed to approve costs. BG No elements of smart grids available yet, apart from a demonstration of EV plug-in sockets in Sofia Draft of the National Energy Strategy until 2020 plans revenues from carbon sales to be used for smart grid implementation