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Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University azclimate.asu

Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University azclimate.asu.edu. Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Update to the Arizona Interagency Coordinating Group November 6, 2012. Precipitation Comparison Colorado River Basin. WY 2010 to April. WY 2011 to April.

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Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University azclimate.asu

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  1. Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University azclimate.asu.edu Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Update to the Arizona Interagency Coordinating Group November 6, 2012

  2. Precipitation Comparison Colorado River Basin WY 2010 to April WY 2011 to April WY 2012 to April

  3. National Drought Monitor Comparison (Short-Term) Nov 1, 2011 May 1, 2012 October 30, 2012

  4. Long Term Drought Status Comparison October 2012 April 2012 October 2011

  5. Precipitation WY 2012 Jan-Apr 2012 Oct-Dec 2011

  6. Precipitation in Selected Watersheds for Past 19 Years

  7. Impacts Mohave County: Spring – Dry vegetation, high forage loss, high wildfire danger, low reservoirs, dry springs. Fall – after monsoon significant greening in many areas, but still very dry in many locaitons including the Kingman area.

  8. Impacts Pima County – Drying stockponds and dry grasses in pasture land. Stage One Drought continues.

  9. Thank you ! Questions ? Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University 480-965-0580 selover@asu.edu http://azclimate.asu.edu

  10. Winter 2012-2013 Outlook Gary Woodall National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ www.weather.gov/phoenix

  11. El Nino Winter Impacts

  12. La Nina Impacts

  13. Arizona Impacts • El Nino winters… • Mild/cool temperatures, usually wetter than normal • La Nina winters… • Warm temperatures, drier than normal • Neutral winters… • Near normal temperatures overall, varying amounts of precip (other factors in play)

  14. Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies: difference between observed and normal temperatures “Nino Regions” used in study and research. Nino 3.4 usually has the strongest signals

  15. The El Nino/la Nina Cycle El Nino La Nina

  16. The Outlook...

  17. Outlook: Jan/Feb/Mar Three-month averages Shading indicates chances of above/below normal Precip outlook consistent with neutral winters Modest odds for above-normal temperatures

  18. Outlook: Jun/Jul/Aug 2013 Three-month averages Shading indicates chances of above/below normal “Traditional” warm temperature signal Small-scale features drive summer precip

  19. Summary • El Nino and La Nina can be big influences on our winter weather • Guidance suggests a neutral to weak El Nino winter (no La Nina!) • The odds are tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precip • A look ahead at Summer 2013 shows odds again tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precip

  20. Questions? Contact us! Telephone: 602-275-0073 Home page: www.weather.gov/phoenix Facebook: www.facebook.com, search for “National Weather Service Phoenix” Twitter: www.twitter.com/NWSPhoenix E-mail: gary.woodall@noaa.gov

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