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21th Annual Southern California Tourism Outlook Conference

21th Annual Southern California Tourism Outlook Conference. CIC Research, Inc. 8361 Vickers St. San Diego, CA 92111 858-637-4000 www.cicresearch.com Pasadena Convention Center October 30, 2009. 2008 - 2009 The Perfect Storm. 2. September 15, 2008. Bankruptcy. $180 Billion Bailout.

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21th Annual Southern California Tourism Outlook Conference

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  1. 21th Annual Southern CaliforniaTourism Outlook Conference CIC Research, Inc.8361 Vickers St.San Diego, CA 92111858-637-4000 www.cicresearch.com Pasadena Convention Center October 30, 2009

  2. 2008 - 2009The Perfect Storm 2

  3. September 15, 2008 Bankruptcy

  4. $180 Billion Bailout

  5. The Stock Market Meltdown 2008 Dow down 34% by the end of 2008 5

  6. Business Bankruptcies and Bailouts

  7. Businesses Closed

  8. Layoffs - Unemployment

  9. Fearful Overseas Travelers Swine Flu

  10. Lodging Industry Challenged Foreclosures 10

  11. And Tourism Goes On Sale?

  12. When Will Tourism Recover?

  13. It Will Be A Long Slow Climb

  14. Southern California Perspective

  15. Southern California Perspective • 23.4 Mil. people in Southern California • About 7.5 Mil. households • More than 9.8 Mil. employees • Estimated 301,000 hotel and motel rooms • Southern California: 23.4 million of 38.3 million CA population (61%) 9.8 million of 16.2 million CA employees (61%)

  16. Who Is A Visitor? • Economic Base Definition • A Visitor Is: - Not a resident of SoCal (stay less than 6 months) - Not here for daily employment - Not a student

  17. 2009 SoCal Hotel Room Inventory Rooms • 301,000 Rooms • 109.9 Mil. Room Nights Avail. • 60.6% Occ. Rate • 66.6 Mil. Room Nights Sold Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR.

  18. SoCal Hotel Rooms Sold No change 2005 - 2007? Millions of Room Nights 18 Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR.

  19. SoCal Hotel Room Revenue Peak in 2007 $ Billions 19 Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR.

  20. International Visitors to the U.S. Millions Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, OTTI, October 2009.

  21. SoCal Ports of Entry- All OverseasVisitor Arrivals Millions Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security

  22. SoCal Ports of Entry - Japan Millions Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security

  23. SoCal Ports of Entry - U.K. Millions Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security

  24. Overnight Visitors to SoCal

  25. Domestic Overnight Visitors to SoCal Millions Source: CIC Research, Inc.

  26. SoCal Overnight International Visitors Millions Source: CIC Research, Inc.

  27. Total Overnight Visitors to SoCal Source: CIC Research, Inc.

  28. Total SoCal Overnight Visitor Spending Source: CIC Research, Inc.

  29. SoCal Overnight Visitor Forecast (2009-2010) • Visitors43.9 M (2009 Preliminary)Down (-6%)43.6 - 44.4 M (2010 Forecast) Modest(-0.5% to 1%) • International Visitors5.6 M (2009 Preliminary)Down (-8%)5.7 - 5.9 M (2010 Forecast) Up (3% to 5%) • Domestic Visitors38.3 M (2009 Preliminary)Down (-6%)38.0 - 38.5 M (2010 Forecast) Flat (-0.5%to 0.5%) • Spending$24.5 B (2009 Preliminary)Down (-12%) $24.7 - $25.4 B (Forecast 2009) Modest (1% to 3%)

  30. Can SoCal Tourism Weather the Storm? 30

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