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Observed Plata R iver level and wind field change

Observed Plata R iver level and wind field change. Atributtion and MCG scenarios Vicente Barros San José de Costa Rica May 27, 2003. Area of concern. MEAN LEVEL. at Buenos Aires Port: 1.7  0.1 mm/año (D’Onofrio, SHN). Seasonal trends of River level at Buenos Aires port (1912-2001).

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Observed Plata R iver level and wind field change

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  1. Observed Plata River level and wind field change Atributtion and MCG scenarios Vicente Barros San José de Costa Rica May 27, 2003

  2. Area of concern

  3. MEAN LEVEL at Buenos Aires Port: 1.7  0.1 mm/año (D’Onofrio, SHN)

  4. Seasonal trends of River level at Buenos Aires port (1912-2001) SUMMER AUITUMN SPRING WINTER Fuente: D’Onofrio y Fiore (2002)

  5. Seasonal trends of River level at Montevideo

  6. Observed changes in sea level pressure and wind fields 1951-1960 1991-2000 A A

  7. Figure 2. Annual mean position of the maximum sea level pressure on the South American coast derived from the NCEP reanalyses and station data

  8. Atributtion of the southward shift of the western border of the South Atlantic high

  9. Validation of Climate Models

  10. Validation of GCM experiments: Sea level pressure NCEP (observed) (1950-2000) HADCM3 (1950-2000) Campos medios anuales

  11. Climate model validation: sea level pressure The models that best represent the mean sea level pressure and its seasonal variability are: HADCM3 CSIRO-Mk2 ECHAM4 GFDL-R30

  12. Figure 6: Model 1 (upper panel) y Model 2 (bottom panel) of HADCM3, CSIRO and GFDL GCM models.

  13. Time series of factor loadings related to GCM models.

  14. GCMs, only driven by GHGs and aerosol concentration trends, show the same trend as the observed SLP field

  15. Further evidences: Future scenarios

  16. Sea level pressure fields: ECHAM4 experiment 1990-2000 2050-2099 Campos medios anuales

  17. The end

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