Population and Development Linkages

1. Population and Development Linkages Gavin W. Jones JYPillay Comparative Asia Research Centre National University of Singapore

2. Introduction General agreement among economists that lowering population growth rates in high fertility populations is favourable for development But “the relations between population and economic growth are part of a whole complex of interrelations and interactions, which suggests that under different configurations of factors and conditions, the impact on economic factors may vary” (UN,1973) “Demographic bonus” literature strengthened the case for lowering fertility rates. Lowered dependency rates helped create the high savings and investment rates that fuelled the East Asian miracle.

3. Southeast Asian population policies • Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines all introduced anti-natalist policies in 1970. • The ASEAN-Australian Population Program – 1981 report on “Population and Development in ASEAN – a Status Report” (Herrin, Pardoko, Lim and Hongladarom) • What did it say? • What has happened since then?

4. Table 1. ASEAN 5 Countries –Demographic Indicators, 1980-2010.

5. Remarkable progress in socio-economic development, and in demographic transition. What were the contributing factors? • “Virtuous circle” • The relationship between economic and demographic development is not a simple one of cause and effect, but occurs in a broader context of patterns of governance and economic policymaking. • Andrew Mason: potential benefits of reduced fertility can be realized “only if countries adopt sound development policies that encourage innovation, saving and investment, efficient allocation of labour, rapid growth in industrial and manufacturing employment, investment in human resources, and the elimination of gender bias”

6. Figure 1. Total Fertility Rate and Number of Births (in thousands) in Southeast Asia, 1960-2010.

7. Figure 1. Cont’d

8. What caused the decline in fertility? • Family planning programs? • General socio-economic development? • The argument largely irrelevant in SE Asia now, because fertility is now low. BUT • Still an issue in • Lao PDR • Timor Leste • Philippines • Indonesia (surprisingly)

9. Figure 2. Thailand’s Age Structure, 1970 and 2010 (Numbers in Millions).

10. Figure 3. Trends in Dependency Ratios, Southeast Asian Countries, 1970-2040

11. Dependency ratio trends very positive • Over a period lasting decades, lowered dependency ratios facilitate development • Over the long run, they also lead to population ageing • The “window of opportunity” is only an advantage if the opportunity is seized. Rapid growth of labour force can be a disaster if education and job opportunities not expanded • Changing internal structure of the labour force must be kept in mind

12. Table 2. Southeast Asia: % growth of younger and older working-age population since 1980

13. Figure 4. Index of Projected Population Growth in Different Working Age Groups 2010-2030 - UN Medium Projections

14. The issue of ultra-low fertility • East Asian countries face this problem – also Singapore and Thailand • Vietnam is considering its situation • Delays in modifying population policies in East Asian countries. Why? • Uncertainty – are the figures correct? • Population momentum • Unawareness about long-term implications • Vested interests in maintaining F.P. program

15. Table 3. Delays in modifying population policy after reaching replacement level

16. Some key population-development linkages affecting Southeast Asia • Population density • Population and environment • Education and population • Ageing • Urbanization and migration

17. Figure 5. SecondarySchool Enrolment Ratio (% gross)China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia

18. Table 4. Trends in % of population aged 65+

19. Urbanization and migration • Provinces with ultra-low fertility (Shanghai, Guangzhou) growing rapidly • Provinces with higher fertility (Sichuan, Guizhou, Hubei) growing more slowly. Why? • Gu Baochang: “China has entered a period in which demographic dynamics becomes dominated by migration rather than mortality or fertility”

20. Table 5. Trends in % of Malaysia’s population – Selangor and Perak

21. The role of the United Nations in population policy leadership • ICPD Cairo – major shift in approaches • Post-Cairo – Reproductive health approach good for SE Asia • But diversion of attention from need to reduce population growth rates not good for Africa. The world has tired of funding FP/RH programs, and successful promotion of HIV/AIDS has led to too little of the limited resources going to FP/RH. • Turnaround in funding for unmet need for FP – 2012 London summit called by British Government and Gates Foundation - $4.6 billion promised by donors. • Recent UN document on follow-up to ICPD – recognizes inequitable distribution of the fruits of development and stresses 5 pillars for population and development – dignity and human rights, health, place and mobility, governance and accountability, and sustainability.

22. One working lifetime in population policy • Experiences in Thailand – 1968-9 and 2012 • Changes have been remarkable • Conventional wisdom has frequently been proved incorrect • Demographic factors need to be integrated in development planning – whether or not there is seen to be a demographic crisis of some sort.

23. Terimakasih!