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Inductive Reasoning. The role of argument forms in evaluating probabilities . Getting Started. First, one becomes interested in something:. Getting Started. First, one becomes interested in something: Call it Y. Getting Started. First, one becomes interested in something: Y

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inductive reasoning

Inductive Reasoning

The role of argument forms in evaluating probabilities

getting started
Getting Started

First, one becomes interested in something:

getting started1
Getting Started

First, one becomes interested in something:

Call it Y

getting started2
Getting Started

First, one becomes interested in something: Y

Next, one notices some things about it:

getting started3
Getting Started

First, one becomes interested in something: Y

Next, one notices some things about it:

Y has properties a, b, c...n

getting started4
Getting Started

First, one becomes interested in something: Y

Next, one notices some things about it:

Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises:

Y has properties a, b, c...n

getting started5
Getting Started

First, one becomes interested in something: Y

Next, one notices some things about it:

Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises:

Is what we are able to observe personally or find out from someone else all we can reasonably believe about Y?

Y has properties a, b, c...n

the next question is
The next question is...

What else is probably true of Y?

the next question is1
The next question is...

What else is probably true of Y?

a general form of inductive reasoning
A General Form of Inductive Reasoning

We are interested in Y

We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n

a general form of inductive reasoning1
A General Form of Inductive Reasoning

We are interested in Y

We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n

We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n

a general form of inductive reasoning2
A General Form of Inductive Reasoning

We are interested in Y

We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n

We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n

We recall: X also has property p

a general form of inductive reasoning3
A General Form of Inductive Reasoning

We are interested in Y

We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n

We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n

We recall: X also has property p

In our minds, these facts resolve themselves into an argument almost automatically.

a general form of inductive reasoning4
A General Form of Inductive Reasoning

Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n

Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n

Premise 3: X also has property p

Conclusion: Y has property p

a general form of inductive reasoning5
A General Form of Inductive Reasoning

Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n

Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n

Premise 3: X also has property p

Conclusion: Y has property p

This is obviously an inconclusive argument, but sometimes this amount of evidence is all we have to go on.

the bottom line for all inductive reasoning
The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning

Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory?

the bottom line for all inductive reasoning1
The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning

Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory?

THIS IS IMPORTANT!