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What it Takes to Make History Torbjorn Bjering Ho-Jung Hsiao Eric Griffin Chun-Hung Lin Gulsah Gunenc Gaoyuan Tian Laura Braeutigam Table of Contents Introduction Brief Summary Descriptive Statistics Exploratory Data Analysis Statistical Analysis Conclusions Introduction

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what it takes to make history

What it Takes to Make History

Torbjorn Bjering

Ho-Jung Hsiao

Eric Griffin

Chun-Hung Lin

Gulsah Gunenc

Gaoyuan Tian

Laura Braeutigam

table of contents
Table of Contents
  • Introduction
  • Brief Summary
  • Descriptive Statistics
  • Exploratory Data Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Conclusions
introduction
Introduction
  • A lot goes into winning an election.
  • There are many factors that can lead a candidate to victory.
  • A campaign is based on what is important to the population.
  • A candidate’s image will help him appeal to many different aspects of society.
what are we studying
What are we studying?
  • The 2008 Presidential election
    • Obama vs. McCain
  • How do different aspects of society influence the result of the election?
  • Why do they affect the outcome?
why are we studying the election
Why are we studying the election?
  • Monumental event in our nation’s history
  • Something that affects all Americans
  • Abundant accurate data
  • Recently occurred
how are we studying the election
How are we studying the election?
  • Extracting data from U.S. Census Bureau
    • 50 states plus District of Columbia
    • DC is an outlier!
  • Evaluating exploratory data
  • LSM Regression
    • Gender
    • Age
    • Financial Status
    • Education
    • Religion
    • Race
brief summary
Brief Summary
  • Obama won the election.
  • Who support Obama?
    • Women
    • Younger voters
    • Voters with higher income
    • Highly educated voters
    • Jewish voters
    • Minority groups
exploratory data analysis
Exploratory Data Analysis
  • An approach to analyze data for the purpose of formulating hypotheses worth testing, complementing the tools of conventional statistics for testing hypotheses.
  • Analyzing scatter diagrams to see if we can use linear regression
descriptive statistics
Descriptive Statistics
  • Dependent Variable
    • Obama election percentage
  • Independent Variable
    • Minority Population
      • Black
      • Native American
      • Hispanic
      • Asian
descriptive statistics cont
Descriptive Statistics cont.
  • Independent Variable
    • Gender
    • Age
    • Religion
      • Christian
      • Jewish
    • Education
      • Persons with Bachelor's Degree or More
    • Financial Status
      • Unemployment Rate
      • Personal Income Per Capita in Current Dollars
      • Energy Consumption Per Capita
      • Homeownership Rate
statistical analysis
Statistical Analysis
  • Analyzing collected data for the purposes of summarizing information to make it more usable and/or making generalizations about a population.
obama vs minority
Obama vs. Minority
  • Effect of minority groups are positive.
  • Asian is more supportive to Obama than other groups.
  • All coefficients except Hispanic and Native are significant.

Minority = 100-white

obama vs minority13
Obama vs. Minority

Minority

Blacks

DC

DC

Minority (%)

Blacks (%)

obama vs gender
Obama vs. Gender
  • Women are more supportive to Obama than men.
obama vs gender15
Obama vs. Gender

Male

Female

DC

DC

(Female %)

(Male %)

obama vs age
Obama vs. Age
  • All groups of ages have positive effect on Obama vote.
  • The positive effect is decreasing with increase of age.
obama vs religion
Obama vs. Religion
  • Christian voters tend not to vote Obama, but not significant.
  • Jewish voters are supportive to Obama.
obama vs education
Obama vs. Education
  • Highly educated voters tend to vote Obama.

Bachelor (%)

obama vs unemployment
Obama vs. Unemployment
  • Jobless voters seem to be supportive to Obama, but the coefficient is not significant.

Unemployment (%)

obama vs income
Obama vs. Income
  • Voters with higher income are supportive to Obama.

Income $

obama vs financial status
Obama vs. Financial Status
  • Voters with higher income and less energy consumption are supportive to Obama.
  • Coefficients on Homeowner and Unemployment are not significant.
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Surprising results
    • Voters with higher income are supportive to Obama.
    • Coefficient for African American voters is lower than expected
    • High energy users and home owners were not supportive
more conclusions
More Conclusions
  • Expected results
    • Women
    • Younger people
    • Educated people
    • Minorities