DESIGNING EARTHLINGS

1. DESIGNING EARTHLINGS UNIFYING REASON AND VALUES TO ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES WE FACE PETER EISENBERGER

2. OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE - GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY - DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS - HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET - UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS - CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION - IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS - CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS

3. THE EARTH HUMAN SYSTEM Before Human Dominance • OUR EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY • HOMO GENUS EVOLVED FOR ~ 7,000,000 YEARS- SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST(SOF) • - HOMO SAPIENS FOR~200,000 YEARS- 95% IN SOF FRAMEWORK • + LIMITED HUNTER GATHERER SOCIAL ORGANIZATION • + NO KNOWLEDGE AT GLOBAL SCALE OR OF BRAIN’S WORKINGS • + NO CAPABILITY TO ALTER NATURE GLOBALLY • - SINCE LAST ICE AGE (~13000 YA)- TOOLS/CHANGING SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS • INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION INITIATES A MAJOR TRANSFORMATION • - ENERGY TO DO WORK • - IMPROVED TRANSPORTATION/COMMUNICATIONS/CONNECTIVITY • - RAPID GROWTH IN KNOWLEDGE

4. GLOBAL INFLUENCE OF HUMANS CHANGING OF THE ATMOSPHERE - GLOBAL WARMING- 385PPM CO2 - REDUCING OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LAYER - POLLUTION USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES - 8% OF FRESHWATER USED BY HUMANS - 11% OF SURFACE AREA - 30% OF FERTILE SOILS HAVE BEEN LOST - MORE MINERALS MOVED BY HUMANS THAN BY NATURE - OVER 50% OF THE SUN’S NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY - LOSS OF FORESTS THROUGH LOGGING AT 1% PER YEAR - BIODIVERSITY LOSS(ESTIMATE 1000 TIMES BACKGROUND) CONCLUSIONS - WE ARE HAVING GLOBAL IMPACT - DRIVEN BY USE OF KNOWLEDGE TO MEET OUR NEEDS + ENERGY TO DO WORK + TRANSPORTATION/COMMUNICATION - KNOWLEDGE IS A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD NOTE- POPULATION/ECONOMIC GROWTH TO CAUSE A 5 TO 10 TIMES INCREASE IN OUR EFFORTS THIS CENTURY! WE CAN USE OUR KNOWLEDGE TO MEET OUR NEEDS BUT…….?

5. THE EARTH HUMAN SYSTEM After Human Dominance • WE ARE A VERY SUCCESSFUL SPECIES/ WE ARE A GLOBAL FORCE • POULATION HAS INCREASED GREATLY/LIFESPAN BY ABOUT 3 • OUR USE OF KNOWLEDGE ENABLES US TO HAVE GLOBAL IMPACTS • - WE CAN CHANGE THE COURSE OF FUTURE EVOLUTION • YET WE ARE STILL AT RISK FROM A CHANGING PLANET • - OUR KNOWLEDGE HAS IDENTIFIED GLOBLAL THREATS TO LIFE • WE ARE SUCCESSFUL BUT WE NEED TO CHANGE (AGAIN) • - TO ADDRESS THE GLOBAL THREATS LIFE FACES • - TO MAKE SURE WE ARE NOT A GLOBAL THREAT OURSELVES

6. WHAT ARE THE GLOBAL THREATS WE FACE NATURE DRIVEN GLOBAL THREATS - ASTEROIDS - CLIMATE CHANGE/ CATASTROPHIC CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERE - SUPER VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS - DISEASES - ECOSYSTEM COLLAPSE HUMAN (also part of nature) GLOBAL THREATS - CHANGING THE ATMOSPHERE/CLIMATE CHANGE + ENERGY USE + POLLUTION + NUCLEAR WINTER - BIODIVERSITY LOSS/ECOSYSTEM COLLAPSE + ALTERING ECOSYSTEMS TO MEET OUR NEEDS + GENETICALLY MODIFIED PRODUCTS - NEW VIRUSES/DISEASES + NEW EXPOSURE/INCREASED VULNERABLITY + BIOLOGICAL WARFARE NO NEW TYPE OF THREAT TO PLANET BY HUMANS WE ARE PART OF NATURE CHALLENGE IS CO-EVOLUTION OF OUR PLANET AND OURSELVES IN THE PRESENCE OF GLOBAL THREATS TO ALL LIFE

7. THE EARTH HUMAN SYSTEM Co-evolution I, WE, THREAT(IWT) FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK - INDIVIDUALS (I) HAVE VIEW OF THEIR REALITY/ REFERENCE FRAME - KNOWLEDGE/BELIEFS DEFINE VALUES AND SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS (WE) - KNOWLEDGE/BELIEFS DEFINE THE THREATS TO OUR SURVIVAL - KNOWLEDGE/BELIEFS/VALUES USEDTO MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT THREATS - WE USE OUR INSTITUTIONS TO IMPLEMENT THEM CRITICAL ROLE OF OUR BRAIN - ABILITY TO USE KNOWLEDGE TO PLAN FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE - DEFINES/CONSTRAINS OUR VIEW OF REALITY/REFERENCE FRAME - ABILITY TO LEARN/INNOVATE TO CHANGE IWT FRAMEWORK ITSELF + REFERENCE FRAME, VALUES, SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS

8. CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGE HOW DOES IWT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK NEED TO CHANGE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PREVENT THE DESTRUCTION/EXTINCTION TO OUR SPECIES AND OTHER LIFE FROM THE GLOBAL THREATS WE BOTH FACE ISSUES TO DEFINE NEW IWT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK PHILOSOPHICAL/FUNDAMENTAL - IS IT OUR ROLE/ PURPOSE? ARE WE STEWARDS OF THE PLANET? - SHOULD WE REMOVE OUR IMPACT ON NATURE? - CAN WE PREVENT THE THREAT’S DESTRUCTION/EXTINCTIONS? ETHICAL - IS IT WRONG FOR US TO IMPOSE OUR DESIGNS? - HOW DOES ONE DECIDE WHO WINS AND LOSES? - DO OUR VALUES NEED TO CHANGE? TACTICAL - HOW CAN WE MAKE GOOD DECISIONS? - HOW CAN WE BEST ORGANIZE OURSELVES? PERSONAL - WILL WE BE HAPPY AND FULFILLED IN THE NEW IWT FRAMEWORK ? THIS TALK WILL ADDRESS QUESTIONS GENERALLY WILL DEFINE A NEW IWT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK WILL APPLY TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT

9. MAJOR ASSERTION WE ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH KNOWLEDGE OF OUR PLANET AND OURSELVES TO KNOW HOW WE HAVE TO CHANGE THE IWT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK SO WE USE OUR POWERFUL KNOWLEDGE TO DEFEND AGAINST THE GLOBAL THREATS LIFE FACES CHANGE DIFFERENT THAN PROPOSED BY OTHERS - ENVIRONMENTALISTS- WE ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT - CAPITALISTS- WE DO NOT NEED TO CHANGE DESIGNING EARTHLINGS WE ARE NOT THE VILLIANS - WE ARE THE STEWARDS BUT WE DO NEED TO CHANGE THE IWT TRANSITION HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR US ALL IT CAN ALSO BRING MORE MEANING TO ALL OUR LIVES

10. OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE - GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY - DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS - HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET - UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS - CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION - IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS - CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS

11. BASIC CONCEPTS • KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT • THE THREAT CREATED BY THE HIGH RATE OF CURRENT HUMAN KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN CHANGES • COMPARED TO THE SLOW RATE OF EVOLUTIONARY AND SOCIAL CHANGES • KNOWLEDGE IS A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD • THE BASIS FOR OUR SUCCESS/CAUSES DESTRUCTION • NUCLEAR ENERGY • THE SINGULARITY-LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS; KURZWEIL • - BERKELEY STUDY-2000 DOUBLING TIME FOR KNOWLEDGE THREE YEARS • - BY 2020 DOUBLING TIME FOR KNOWLEDGE 7 MONTHS • CAN IWT FEEDBACK USE OUR POWERFUL KNOWLEDGE WISELY? • WILL SHOW THAT ANSWER IS: • NO IN PAST/CURRENT IWT SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK • YES IF WE CHANGE IWT FRAMEWORK TO • NEW DESIGNING EARTHLINGS FRAMEWORK

12. LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE • THE LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE IS AS IMPORTANT AS WHAT WE KNOW • - NOT EVERYTHING IS KNOWABLE • - BELIEFS/SPECULATIONS ARE NECESSARY • MAIN KNOWLEDGE BASED LIMITATIONS • - GODEL • + NO LOGICAL SYSTEM IS BOTH CONSISTENT AND COMPLETE • + RECURSIVE QUESTIONS HAVE NO ANSWER(I AM LYING) • - COMPLEX SYSTEMS • + FUTURE TIME EVOLUTION INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE • + DO HAVE REGULAR PATTERNS- CHAOTIC ATTRACTORS • + CAN PREPARE FOR AND ANTICIPATE DESTRUCTIVE TRANSITIONS • HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE • - WE ARE CONSTRAINED BY GODEL • - OUR REFERENCE FRAME WILL DETERMINE OUR DECISIONS • - WE CANNOT DEFINE OUR REALITY INDEPENDENT OF OUR BRAIN • - OUR RELATIONSHIP TO REALITY IS RECURSIVE /THE MOVIE THE MATRIX • CO-EVOLUTION ISSUES/COMPLEX EARTH/HUMAN SYSTEM • - THE FUTURE- UNTESTABLE/UNKNOWABLE/UNPREDICTABLE • - MEASURE THE STATE OF THE PLANET/EARLY WARNING • - DEVELOP DEFENSES AGAINST POSSIBLE DESTRUCTIVE TRANSITIONS • + REGIONAL EXAMPLE- 100 YEAR FLOOD • + EL NINO • - DECISIONS CONSTRAINED BY REFERENCE FRAME • NEW ACTIVIST VERSIONS OF DESCARTES ‘I THINK THEREFORE I AM’ • - WHAT I(WE) THINK DETERMINES WHAT I(WE)DO • - WHAT I(WE) DO DETERMINES OUR FUTURE

13. GLOBAL WARMING ISSUES • KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS • IS THE PLANET WARMING ? • - WARMING IS WELL DEFINED • - CAN MAKE MEASUREMENTS/WARMING IS OCCURING • - EMPERICAL KNOWLEDGE • ARE HUMANS CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING? • - INCREASING CARBON DIOXIDE CAN INCREASE TEMPERATURE • + GREENHOUSE EFFECT CAN BE DEMONSTATED IN EXPERIMENTS • - IN COMPLEX SYSTEM PREDICTIVE CAUSALITY NOT POSSIBLE • + IN THE PAST CO2 INCREASES FOLLOWED WARMING • - CURRENT MODELS ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE A PRIORI KNOWLEDGE LIMITED • + MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP EARLY WARNING • - CURRENT STATUS- LITTLE KNOWLEDGE AND A LOT OF BELIEF/VALUES • - EINSTEIN EFFECT/GROUP THINK IN SCIENCE • IS CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING A THREAT? • - THREATIS POORLY DEFINED AT GLOBAL LEVEL/VALUES • - CLIMATE/ ANY CHANGE WILL CREATE WINNERS AND LOSERS • - IS WARMING GOOD OR BAD FOR PLANET OVERALL? • - C ANNOT PREDICT FUTURE EVOLUTION OF A COMPLEX SYSTEM • CONCLUSIONS FOR THREATS GENERALLY • - WE CANNOT DETERMINE IN ADVANCE WHAT EXACTLY WILL CAUSE THEM • - WE CANNOT KNOW THE LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES OF OUR SOLUTIONS • - WE CAN GET EARLY WARNING THAT THEY ARE IMMINENT • - WE CAN USE KNOWLEDGE TO KNOW HOW TO IMPACT THEM • - WE NEED TO AVOID GROUP THINK/OPEN TO NEW KNOWLEDGE/SCIENCE

14. OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE - GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY - HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET - UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS - CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION - IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS - CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS

15. KNOWLEDGE OF THE PAST HISTORY OF OUR PLANET FORMATION OF PLANET EARTH TIMELINE -BIG BANG-13,700 MILLION YEARS AGO (MYA) -EARTH-4,550 MYA-EXPLOSION OF AN EARLIER STAR -BOMBARDMENT OF EARTH-FORMATION OF MOON-TILL 3,900 MYA -EARLIEST LIFE-3,465 MYA FORMATION PROCESS -INITIALLY HEATS UP DUE TO BOMBARDMENT AND RADIOACTIVITY -RESULTS IN MELTED CORE , COOLED OUTER SKIN, AND CONTINENTS -RADIOACTIVE HEATING DRIVES MOVEMENT OF CONTINENTS TODAY + CAUSE OF VOLCANOES/EARTHQUAKES -HEATING CAUSED BIG BURP GIVING EARTH ITS INITIAL ATMOSPHERE + ANOTHER BURP 55MYA FROM METHANE TRAPPED IN OCEAN + CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING OF 5 DEGREES CELSIUS CREATION BY DESTRUCTION NATURE IS MAGNIFICENT BUT CERTAINLY NOT BENIGN PERSPECTIVE FOR NEW IWT

16. MAJOR PATTERNS CLEAR-DETAILS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE - MICROBES ONLY FOR FIRST 3 BILLION YEARS OF LIFE - BASIC LIFE MECHANISMS EVOLVED IN MICROBES +REPRODUCTION /ENERGY PRODUCTION METHODS - LIFE EVOLVES BY MERGERS/HOC GENES - HUMANS VERY RECENT + MICROBE DESIGNS FOR REPRODUCTION/ENERGY CONVERSION HOW DID LIFE EVOLVE IN THE PRESENCE OF GLOBAL THREATS?

17. SOURCES OF NON-HUMAN CHANGES CAUSES OF PAST EXTINCTIONS CLIMATE CHANGE/GLACIATION HAS CAUSED EXTINCTIONS - ROTATION IN ELIPTICAL ORBIT AROUND THE SUN- ONE YEAR - SEASONS CAUSED BY TILT OF EARTHS AXES IN SOLAR PLANE - WINTER AND SUMMER VARY IN CLOSENESS TO SUN- 21000 YEARS - CHANGE IN DIRECTION OF TILT OF EARTH AXES- 41 THOUSAND YEARS - CHANGE IN ORBIT ELLIPTICITY FROM 0% TO 9% -100 THOUSAND YEARS - 13,OOO YEARS AGO NEW YORK UNDER A GLACIER ASTEROID/COMET THREAT HAS CAUSED EXTINCTIONS - MILLIONS OF MASSIVE OBJECTS WITH IRREGULAR PATHS - DINOSAUR EXTINCTION SIZE OBJECT EVERY 100 MILLION YEARS SUPER VOLCANOES HAVE CAUSED EXTINCTIONS - HEATING OF CORE BY RADIOACTIVITY-CONTINENTAL DRIFT - MASSIVE ERUPTIONS(>1000 KM3 ) LARGE IGNEOUS PROVINCES (106 KM3 ) - 1000 TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN MOUNT ST. HELENS ECOSYSTEM CHANGES HAVE CAUSED EXTINCTIONS - GLOBAL DOMINATING SPECIE-CYANOBACTERIA + ALTERED ATMOSPHERE + NEW WAY TO HARNESS ENERGY/OXYGEN + ANALOGY TO OUR IMPACT TODAY ALL THESE THREATS WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE

18. MAJOR EXTINCTIONS/CAUSES EXTINCTION“CAUSES” a CLIMATE CHANGE b UNKNOWN c COMBINATION OF ASTEROID,VOLCANISM, CLIMATE CHANGE d SUPERVOLCANOE-CLIMATE CHANGE e ASTEROID-CLIMATE CHANGE- DINOSAURS HUMAN EXTINCTION/LAKE TOBA SUPERVOLCANOE- 75,000 YEARS AGO - CAUSED MILLENNIAL ICE AGE-1000 YEARS - WIPED OUT MORE THAN 60% OF HUMANS - AMBROSE- CAUSED CHANGE IN HUMAN EVOLUTION + DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL COOPERATION + DEVELOPMENT OF LANGUAGE CAN WE MAKE THE NEXT TRANSITION WITHOUT ANOTHER DISASTER?

19. DIVERSITY OBSEVATIONS - BEFORE CAMBRIAN PERIOD-ONLY MICROBES - COMPLEXITY OF LIFE INCREASED FOLLOWING EXTINCTIONS - IN SPITE OF EXTINCTIONS DIVERSITY INCREASED - NATURAL PROCESS AGAIN- CREATION BY DESTRUCTION CAN WE NOT CREATE A FUTURE WITH LESS DESTRUCTION?

20. LESSONS FROM EXTINCTIONS THEY WILL OCCUR EVEN IF WE REDUCE OUR IMPACT TO ZERO FEEDBACKS CAN BE WORSE THAN TRIGGERING EVENT - CLIMATE CHANGE MAJOR THREAT/ HAS MANY CAUSES DESTRUCTION (EXTINCTIONS) CAN CREATE GOOD RESULTS- - MORE DIVERSITY/-SOME BELIEVE GREATER CAPABILITY SURVIVAL HAS BEEN BY LUCK RATHER THAN BY DARWINIAN FITNESS - DINOSAURS COULD NOT PREPARE FOR AN ASTEROIDIMPACT GENERALISTS(MICROBES) SURVIVE BETTER THAN SPECIALISTS(US) - BILLIONS OF YEARS TO MILLIONS OF YEARS - OUR SPECIES ONLY ABOUT 150,000 YEARS OLD LESSONS FOR CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGE - CHANGE THE I,WE, THREAT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK IN OUR BRAIN + NATURE IS NOT BENIGN + LIFE IS VULNERABLE TO GLOBAL THREATS + PAST APPROACH NOT ACCEPTABLE BY MY(OUR?)VALUES + NEED TO DEAL WITH FUTURE GLOBAL THREATS OUR UNIQUE ABILITY TO USE KNOWLEDGE AND OUR BRAIN TO ANTICIPATE AND PLAN FOR DISTANT FUTURE THREATS IS THE CAPABILITY NEEDED TO GO BEYOND CREATION BY DESTRUCTION--- WE ARE NOT THE VILLIANS BUT WE DO HAVE TO MAKE GOOD DECISIONS

21. OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE - GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY - DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS - HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET - UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS - CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION - IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS - CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS

22. THE BRAIN: NATURE AND NUTURE BRAIN IMAGING REVEALS CONSTRAINTS/OPPORTUNITIES EMOTIONAL CONSTRAINTS - FEAR BLOCKS NEOCORTEX INPUT - FLIGHT OR FIGHT REACTION EMOTIONS ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT POSITIVE ROLE - INFLUENCE VALUES - FOCUS ATTENTION/INCREASES MEMORY - LEARNING IS AN EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCE - JOE LEDOUX DISTINCTION OF EMOTIONS + IMPLICIT EMOTIONS-BY PASSES CORTEX-FEAR/ANGER + EXPLICIT EMOTIONS- INVOLVES CORTEX- LEARNING - IT MAKES US HAPPY/FULFILLED TO USE KNOWLEDGE SUCCESSFULLY + IMPLICIT EMOTIONS REINFORCES SUCCESSFUL HUNTING + EXPLICIT EMOTIONS REINFORCES SUCCESSFUL LEARNING COMPLICATED ANALYSIS CONSTRAINT - TUNE OUT CORTEX WHEN TOO COMPLICATED(KAHNEMANN) - NEURAL OPTIMISM/BLINK - MATHEMATICS NOT PART OF BRAINS ULTIMATE DESIGN BRAIN’S ASSESTS FOR USING KNOWLEDGE - USE OF KNOWLEDGE TO LEARN/PLAN FOR THE FUTURE - INSIDE OUTSIDE AMBIQUITY/CAN PARTNER WITH MACHINES - PLASTICITY GENERAL OBSERVATIONS NATURE AND NURTURE IMPACT ON OUR DECISIONS - INFERERENCES/RESPONSES ABOUT REALITY BUILT IN - MANY BRAIN INFERENCES INCORRECT/KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT - OUR FRAME WORK CONSTRAINS OUR USE OF KNOWLEDGE/EINSTEIN - BUT WE DO LEARN BASED UPON KNOWLEDGE/ SCIENTIFIC METHOD - USING/DEVELOPING OUR EXPLICIT EMOTIONS VERY IMPORTANT - PLASTICITY ENABLES US TO REDESIGN OUR BRAIN

23. THE BRAIN/DECISIONS: SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS • IDEAL PERFORMANCE OF A BRAIN FOR CO-EVOLUTION DECISIONS • - EVALUATE BY REASON THE KNOWLEDGE AVAILABLE • - BE OPEN TO CHANGING REFERENCE FRAME/LEARN • - APPLY KNOWLEDGE BASED UPON EXPLICIT EMOTIONS/VALUES • WHAT IS A CONSTRAINT FOR MAKING BEST DECISION • - DECISION MAKING BASED ON ULTIMATE VERSUS PROXIMATE CAUSES • - DOMINANCE OF IMPLICIT VERSUS EXPLICIT EMOTIONS • - FAILURE TO BE ABLE TO EVALUATE KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY • GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE( THREATS GENERALLY ) • - RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE HAS STRONG ULTIMATE CAUSES • - MANY ARE NOT OPEN TO CHANGING THEIR BELIEFS/VALUES • + MANY GLOBAL WARMING/THREAT EXPERTS LIKE EINSTEIN • - ISSUE IS TOO COMPICATED FOR INDIVIDUALS TO EVALUATE • IMPACT OF CONSTRAINTS • PAST/CURRENT IMPACT ON I,WE,THREAT FEEDBACKS • - SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IWT FRAMEWORK • - IMPLCIT EMOTIONS DOMINATE • - FAILURE AND INABILITY TO EVALUATE AVAILABLE KNOWLEDGE • - FEAR CREATES US AND THEM • - THEN WE MAKE DECISIONS THAT VIOLATE GOLDEN RULE • - LOSE TRUST/REDUCE COOPERATION • - KNOWLEDGE USED FOR CONFLICTS • HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE APPROACH TO CHANGE • - WE ARE ALL TRAPPED BY OUR REFERENCE FRAME/COMPASSION • - LEARNING CAN CHANGE REFERENCE FRAME • - ASSERTION: WE KNOW HOW WE HAVE TO CHANGE IWT FOR CO-EVOLUTION • APPLYING OUR KNOWLEDGE TOGETHER SUCCESSFULLY AGAINST • A COMMON EXTERNAL THREAT WILL MAKE US HAPPY!

24. IMPROVED CO-EVOLUTION DECISION MAKING • EMOTIONAL CONSTRAINT • IMPLICIT EMOTIONS PREVENT/DISTORT INPUT • - BIOFEEDBACK/TRAINING/CONTROL IMPLICIT EMOTIONS • + GLOBAL VERSION OF ANGER MANAGEMENT • - EMPATHY TO EACH OTHER AND TO THE REST OF NATURE • - STRENGTHEN EXPLICIT EMOTIONS/SUCCESSFUL LEARNING • COMPLICATED ANALYSIS CONSTRAINT • NEW TOOLS • - MACHINE ANALYSIS FOR COMPLEX ISSUES/FULL INTEGRATION • + IMPLANTS • + TANGIBLE COMPUTING • + VIRTUAL REALITY • - AGENT BASED MODELING • - MACHINES TO STORE AND DELIVER KNOWLEDGE/INTERNET • INCREASE EFFECTIVENESS • - IMPROVE LEARNING SKILLS/NOT CONTENT • - PATHWAYS TO LEARNING/INTERFACE TO WEB/INTERNET • - PLASTICITY • NEW INSTITUTIONS • - KNOWLEDGE COURT • + NOT ON CONTENT/SCIENTIFIC METHOD WORKS • + INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF PROCESS/CERTAINTY • + ‘JUDGES’- EXPERTS BUT NOT PRACTICING SCIENTISTS

25. OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE - GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY - DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS - HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET - UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS - CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION - IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS - CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS

26. JARED DIAMOND ( GUNS,GERMS AND STEEL, COLLAPSE) - COVERS PERIOD FROM LAST ICE AGE (13,0000 YA) - I, WE, THREAT FEEDBACKS CREATE LARGER GROUPS + HUNTER-GATHERERS, VILLAGES, CITIES, NATIONS - COOPERATE AND INNOVATE TOGETHER - BAD DECISIONS MAJOR CAUSE OF HUMAN FAILURES NEXT LOGICAL STEP- GLOBAL COOPERATION IMPROVED DECISIONS

27. PAST EVOLUTION OF I ,WE, THREAT • THE I,WE RELATIONSHIP EVOLVES OVERTIME IN RESPONSE TO NEW KNOWLEDGE/EXPERIENCE OF WHAT WORKS TO AVOID THREATS AS INTERPRETED BY OUR BRAIN • IWT EVOLVES BY CHANGING OUR VALUES AND SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS • HUMAN SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS VALUES • HUNTER-GATHERERS EAT OR BE EATEN/SURVIVAL • VILLAGES • CITIES • NATION STATES MORE COOPERATION/TRUST • KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE • I ----------------------------------- WE --------------------------------- THREAT • TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY • GENERAL HISTORICAL TRENDS • INCREASING KNOWLEDGE OF AND WAYS TO REMOVE THREATS • INCREASING USE OF TECHNOLOGY TO DEFEND AGAINST THREATS • INCREASING SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS • INCREASING COOPERATION/CURRENTLY GLOBALIZATION • INCREASING SUCCESS AS MEASURED BY LIFESPAN AND POPULATION • WE ARE ON THE RIGHT PATH • WE ARE TAKING THE NEXT STEP • WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM RECENT GLOBAL COOPERATION EFFORTS?

28. DESIGNED SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL THREATS OZONE LAYER- MONTREAL PROTOCOL - FIRST GLOBAL THREAT/MUTATIONS FROM UV RADIATION - 1984 FOUND 35% REDUCTION - NOBEL PRIZE IN CHEMISTRY (MOLINA AND ROWLAND) + OZONE DEPLETING CHEMICAL REACTIONS(CFC) - 1985 VIENNA CONVENTION-INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK TO CARRY OUT MEASUREMENTS AND PERFORM RESEARCH - 1987 MONTREAL PROTOCOL ON SUBSTANCES THAT DEPLETE THE OZONE LAYER(AMENDMENTS 1990 AND 1992) - ALL IDENTIFIED CHEMICALS PHASED OUT BY 2005 THE COMPLEXITIES BENEATH THE SUCCESS STORY - WHY NO CHEATING AND GLOBAL COMMONS PROBLEMS + INDUSTRY DISCOVERED THEY COULD MAKE MORE MONEY BY SELLING NEW CHEMICALS TO REPLACE CFCS - WIN/WIN SOLUTIONS ARE DESIREABLE + EARTHLING FEATURE/DEVELOPING COUNTRIES GIVEN LONGER TO COMPLY - OZONE LAYER HAS NOT REVERSED ITSELF/OSCILLATING + RAISES ISSUE OF NATURAL VARIATIONS + SPECULATE ALSO CONNECTED TO CLIMATE CHANGE - IF OZONE LAYER CHANGE IS NATURAL IS IT OKAY? OBSERVATIONS - IMPORTANT TO BUILD CONSENSUS ON THE FACTS - WIN/WIN SOLUTIONS ARE IMPORTANT - DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE HUMAN IMPACT

29. DESIGNED SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL THREATS CO2 INCREASE-KYOTO PROTOCOL - FOLLOWED SIMILAR PATH TO MONTREL PROTOCOL - INCREASED CO2 MEASURED - INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) - RESEARCH AND MEASUREMENTS - KYOTO PROTOCOL PROPOSED IN 1998 - TREATED DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DIFFERENTLY - TILL NOW NO WIN/WIN SOLUTION FOUND - PROTOCOL RATIFIED WITHOUT US PARTICIPATION - DESIGNING SOLUTIONS TO CONTROL CO2 ASTEROID IMPACT - NO GLOBAL FRAMEWORK YET ESTABLISHED - SHARING OF KNOWLEDGE BY SCIENTISTS - DIFFICULT TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT + INDICTATIVE OF DISCOUNTING OF DISTANT THREATS - NASA ORDERED TO CATALOG IN TEN YEARS ALL OBJECTS GREATER THAN 1 KILOMETER THAT COULD HIT US + SMALLER ONES CAN STILL KILL MILLIONS OF PEOPLE + RECENT SURPRISE/HIDDEN FROM OUR TELESCOPES - DESIGNING SOLUTIONS TO REMOVE THREAT + BLOW THEM UP/DANGEROUS + ATTACH SAIL TO CHANGE PATH + USE RADIATION PRESSURE TO CHANGE COURSE + LARGE ROCKET/ GRAVITY TO CHANGE PATH OBSERVATIONS - ASTEROID THREAT MORE CATASTROPHIC AND CERTAIN - YET IT IS RECEIVING MUCH LESS SUPPORT(100 TO 1) - GOOD EXAMPLE OF EMOTIONS IMPACT/GOOD USE OF KNOWLEDGE COURT? - FAILURE SIMILAR TO NEW ORLEANS AND INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI

30. ADAPTIVE DESIGNS REGIONAL ECOSYSTEMS - FAILED ATTEMPTS TO MANAGE ECOSYSTEMS/COMPLEX SYSTEMS + YELLOWSTONE FIRE COMPLEX SYSTEMS UNPREDICTABLE - THREATS WILL OCCUR UNPREDICTABLY - SENSING/ REGULAR PATTERNS CAN PROVIDE WARNING HEALTH: BEST EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE TO UNPREDICTABLE THREATS - WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION(WHO) - WHO HAS TWO PARTS/NEW AND KNOWN DISEASES - HAS NETWORK IN 140 COUNTRIES - HAS 250 LABORATORIES (WHO COLLABORATING CENTERS) - LINKED ELECTRONICALLY AT THE GRASS ROOTS LEVEL - CAN BY-PASS GOVERNMENTS + FROM 1996 TO 2000 65% NOT REPORTED BY GOVERNMENT - CANADA HAS IMPLEMENTED A SYSTEM TO CRAWL THE WEB + LOOKING FOR RUMORS OF OUTBREAKS - 2000 WHO ESTABLISHED GLOBAL OUTBREAK ALERT NETWORK + COORDINATES THEIR DISTRIBUTED NETWORK - THE WORLD HEALTH ASSEMBLY(GOVERNING BODY) GAVE AUTHORITY TO ACT WITHOUT GOVERNMENT APPROVAL + USED IN RECENT SARS EVENT HEALTH MOST DEVELOPED RESPONSE TO GLOBAL THREAT - GOOD MODEL FOR ALL THREATS/HEALTHY PLANET - TWO PRONGED APPOACH + MONITORING AND CURES FOR KNOWN THREATS + RESEARCH TO IDENTIFY NEW THREATS AND CURES - GOVERNANCE + CAN ACT IDEPENDENTLY OF INDIVIDUAL GOVERNMENTS WORKABLE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE- - DESIGN AN ADAPTIVE DEFENSE IN CASE YOU ARE WRONG CONCLUSIONS - ESTABLISH A WHO LIKE ORGANIZATION FOR EACH THREAT - COMMON EXTERNAL THREATS PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY + COOPERATION/TRUST

31. OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE - GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY - DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS - HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET - UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS - CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION - IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS - CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS

32. VALUE TO DESIGN THE FUTURE CULTURE/BELIEFS VALUE(C,R) GOLDEN RULE:TREAT OTHERS LIKE YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE TREATED YOURSELF - CENTRAL BELIEF OF MANY RELIGIONS/BASIS FOR SOCIAL RULES - ROUTINELY VIOLATED IN OUR CONFLICTS WITH EACH OTHER(US/THEM) KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN PRAGMATIC VALUE(K) COOPERATION IS THE BEST WAY TO ADDRESS COMMON GLOBAL THREATS - CONCLUSION SUPPORTED BY PASTEXPERIENCE - BUT COOPERATION REQUIRES TRUST - GOLDEN RULE WILL PROMOTE THRUST - WE ARE ALL TRAPPED IN OUR REFERENCE FRAMES/ BASIS FOR COMPASSION - COMPASSION ENABLES GOLDEN RULE CONCLUSION CORE RELIGIOUS/CULTURAL VALUE AND SECULAR ANALYSIS AGREE GOLDEN RULE IS KEY FOR IWT FRAMEWORK TO MEET CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGE EARTHLINGS- NEW I,WE THREAT FRAMEWORK – GLOBAL LIMIT OF GOLDEN RULE -WE ARE ALL US – LESS I MORE WE – BUILDS TRUST – COOPERATE GLOBALLY – USE GOLDEN RULE IN DESIGNING SOLUTIONS DESIGNING EARTHLINGS USE GOLDEN RULE/IMPROVED DECISIONS/NEW ORGANIZATIONS

33. GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH CLIMATE CHANGE IS DEFINITELY A THREAT - NEED TO DESIGN A DEFENSE - SHOULD DEFEND AGAINST WARMING AND COOLING - HUMAN OR NATURAL CAUSES - WE ARE NOT THE VILLIANS WE ARE THE STEWARDS GREENHOUSE EFFECT IS KNOWLEDGE - CONTROL CARBON DIOXIDE LEVEL IN ATMOSPHERE - CURRENTLY ABOUT 24 BILLION TONNES PER YEAR - NOT POSSIBLE IN SHORT TERM TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL - NEED TO ADDRRESS GROWING CO2 IN SHORTER TERM - CAPTURING AND STORING CO2 FROM POWER PLANTS/NO + WILL NOT PREVENT CO2 BUILDUP-JUST SLOW INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC CAPTURE OF CARBON DIOXIDE( LACKNER) - CANCAPTURE AMOUNT OF EMMISIONS- CARBON NEUTRAL - CAN CAPTURE LESS THAN OUR EMMSIONS/ TEMPERATURE UP - CAN CAPTURE MORE THAN OUR EMMSIONS/TEMPERATURE DOWN - THUS PROVIDES PROTECTION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL THERMOSTAT ( EISENBERGER/CHICHILNISKY) - RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES(PROVIDE ENERGY/ CAPTURE CO2) + NEW ERA-MORE ENERGY LESS CO2 - NEED TO COMPENSATE FOR PLANET (HUMAN AS WELL) DAMAGE - PREVENT FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE FROM SOLAR CHANGES

34. GLOBAL THERMOSTAT DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH CORE VALUE - TREAT OTHERS THE WAY YOU WANT TO BE TREATED - WE ARE ONE SPECIES- SOLUTION MUST WORK FOR ALL GLOBAL APPROACH NEEDED - KYOTO GOOD START - REMOVE WE(DEVELOPED) THEY (DEVELOPING) DIVIDE CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM(CDM) ( CHICHILNISKY) - MODIFY SO ALL PARTICIPATE - PRACTICE GOLDEN RULE DESIGN + EVERY PERSON HAS SAME ALOTTMENT + THE RICH HELP THE POOR + USE KNOWLEDGE TO CREATE WIN/WIN SOLUTION - WIN/WIN SOLUTION + DEVELOPED COUNTRIES PROVIDE TECHNOLOGY/FINANCING + ALL BUILD RENEWABLE ENERGY/ AIR CAPTURE PLANTS + GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWS BY 5-10/ ADDRESS OTHER IMPACTS + CAPTURE RATE SET BY INTERNATIONAL BODY HOW TO SET THE TEMPERATURE-GLOBAL CLIMATE HEALTH - CREATE BODY/ KYOTO TO SUPPORT RESEARCH - USE RESEARCH TO PROVIDE KNOWLEDGE - GOVERNANCE/ONE PERSONONEVOTE/ EARTHLINGS CORE VALUE - THERE WILL BE WINNERS AND LOSERS/ THERE ARE TODAY - TRUST-THOSE ADVERSELY IMPACTED WILL BE TAKEN CARE OF - GLOBAL SCALE VERSION OF NATIONAL PROJECTS

35. OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS • WHAT IWT CHANGES DOES KNOWLEDGE TELL US ARE NEEDED? • CHANGE NEEDED IS IN OUR VALUES/SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS: • - FROM SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST TO THE GOLDEN RULE • - FROM COMPETITION TO GLOBAL COOPERATION/TRUST • - FROM NATIONS TO EARTHLINGS/COMMON THREATS TO OUR SPECIES • CHANGE THE WAY WE MAKE DECISIONS • - USE TOOLS TO HELP US MAKE DECISIONS • - NEW GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS LIKE WHO AND KNOWLEDGE COURT • CHANGE OUR RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE • - USE KNOWLEDGE TO AVOID NATURES(INCLUDING OUR) THREATS • - DESIGN DEFENSES AGAINST UNAVOIDABLE GLOBAL THREATS • ISSUES TO DEFINE NEW IWT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK • PHILOSOPHICAL/FUNDAMENTAL • - IS IT OUR ROLE/ PURPOSE? ARE WE STEWARDS OF THE PLANET? YES • - SHOULD WE REMOVE OUR IMPACT ON NATURE? NO • - CAN WE PREVENT THE THREAT’S DESTRUCTION/EXTINCTIONS? YES • ETHICAL • - IS IT WRONG FOR US TO IMPOSE OUR DESIGNS? NO • - HOW DOES ONE DECIDE WHO WINS AND LOSES? GOLDEN RULE • - DO OUR VALUES NEED TO CHANGE? YES GOLDEN RULE • TACTICAL • - HOW CAN WE MAKE GOOD DECISIONS? NEW TOOLS/ LEARNING • - HOW CAN WE BEST ORGANIZE OURSELVES? GLOBALLY • PERSONAL • - WILL WE BE HAPPY AND FULFILLED IN THE NEW IWT FRAMEWORK?YES

36. BUT FOR ME THE SURPRISE WAS KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS IDENTIFY THE SAME KEY TO SUCCESS WE NEED TO ALL PRACTICE THE GOLDEN RULE AND THAT THE COMPASSION AND COOPERATION IT ENABLES WILL CREATE NEW MEANING IN ALL OUR LIVES AND WE WILL BE HAPPY!