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Patterns of Violent Crime in Russia. Natalia S. Gavrilova Leonid A. Gavrilov Victoria G. Semyonova Galina N. Evdokushkina Alla E. Ivanova Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago Central Research Public Health Institute, Moscow, Russia . List of Violent Crimes. Intentional Murder

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patterns of violent crime in russia

Patterns of Violent Crime in Russia

Natalia S. Gavrilova

Leonid A. Gavrilov

Victoria G. Semyonova

Galina N. Evdokushkina

Alla E. Ivanova

Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

Central Research Public Health Institute, Moscow, Russia

list of violent crimes
List of Violent Crimes
  • Intentional Murder
  • Assault (simple and aggravated)

Intentional Bodily Harm (light, medium, serious) in Russian Criminal Code

  • Rape/Sexual assault
  • Robbery (simple and aggravated)

‘Grabezh’ and ‘Razboy’ in Russian Criminal Code

data resources on violent crime
Data Resources on Violent Crime
  • Statistics of violent crimes registered by police (collected by the Russian Ministry of Interiors). Also submitted to the UN World Crime Surveys.
  • Statistics of arrestees collected by police.
  • Statistics of homicide mortality collected by Goskomstat. Submitted to the WHO.
  • Surveys of prison inmates.
  • Victimization surveys. International Crime Victimization Surveys (conducted in Moscow).
trends of intentional murders in russia and the united states data from the un world crime surveys
Trends of Intentional Murders in Russia and the United StatesData from the UN World Crime Surveys
trends of reported robberies in russia and the united states data from the un world crime surveys
Trends of Reported Robberies in Russia and the United StatesData from the UN World Crime Surveys
slide7
Crime Reporting (%) in Russia and the United StatesData from the International Crime Victimization Survey
trends in homicide rates for young and middle aged adults data from russian vital statistics
Trends in Homicide Rates for Young and Middle-Aged AdultsData from Russian Vital Statistics

Males

Females

slide15
Number of Serious Crimes in 1995 per 10,000 PopulationData from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)
slide16
Proportion of Sexual Crimes in All Serious Crimes in 1995 Data from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)
age profiles of mortality from accidental poisoning by alcohol data from russian vital statistics
Age Profiles of Mortality from Accidental Poisoning by AlcoholData from Russian Vital Statistics

Males

Females

we need a multivariate analysis of violent crime
We Need a Multivariate Analysis of Violent Crime
  • Pridemore W.A. (2000). Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia. A Dissertation. School of Criminal Justice, SUNY, Albany, NY.
  • Andrienko Y. (2001). Understanding the crime growth in Russia during the transition period: A criminometric approach. HSE Economic Journal, 5(2): 194-220.
  • Fajnzylber P., Lederman D., Loayza N. (2002). What causes violent crime? European Economic Review, 46: 1323-1357.
factors related to homicide dynamics in russia according to the study by andrienko 2001
Factors Related to Homicide Dynamics in RussiaAccording to the Study by Andrienko, 2001

Positively Related Factors:

  • Criminal experience (one-year lag of homicide rate)
  • Percentage of Youth
  • Alcohol Consumption
  • Income inequality (Gini coefficient),
  • Consumption of Illicit Drugs
  • Geographical Lattitude and Longitude

Negatively Related Factors:

  • Education
  • Police Efficiency (Police Clearance Rate)
  • Unemployment (!?), Real Income, Net Nuptiality
conclusions i
Conclusions (I)
  • The rates of violent crimes increased during the transition period in Russia (perhaps with the exception of rapes). Homicide has became the top cause of external mortality for women in Russia.
  • Patterns of violent crime in Russia are strongly affected by age and sex. Homicide risk is the highest at middle ages – 30-55 years. The use of aggregated indices, which ignore age and sex structure could be misleading.
  • Both homicide victims and offenders are on average older in Russia than in the United States.
conclusions ii
Conclusions (II)
  • Regional pattern of homicide mortality shows West-East and South-North (European part of Russia) gradient of homicide mortality.
  • Alcohol is still an important factor of violent crime and homicide in particular. However, the role of alcohol as a factor of violent crime is declining.
  • Economic and structural changes during the transition period (increase in poverty and income inequality, decline in GDP) appears to be important factors of violent crime and will largely determine the future direction of violent crime in Russia. However these trends may be partially alleviated by population aging.