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IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE, EROSION, STORMS, AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST PowerPoint Presentation
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IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE, EROSION, STORMS, AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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James C. Gibeaut Tiffany Hepner, Bill White, Becky Smyth, Tom Tremblay John Andrews, Roberto Gutierrez, Rachel Waldinger Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

James C. Gibeaut

Tiffany Hepner, Bill White, Becky Smyth, Tom Tremblay John Andrews, Roberto Gutierrez, Rachel Waldinger

Bureau of Economic Geology

Jackson School of Geosciences

The University of Texas at Austin

Funding from Galveston Bay Estuary Program, Texas General Land Office,NASA, NOAA, Army Research Office, City of Galveston

Coastal Bend Bays Foundation, February 12, 2007

IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE, EROSION, STORMS, AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
slide3

Data generalized from various sources.

Diagram modified from Fisher, W. L., Brown, L. F., Jr., McGowen, J. H., and Groat, C. G., 1979.

slide9

Pier 21 - Galveston

180.0

160.0

140.0

120.0

100.0

Average water level (cm)

y = 0.652x - 1145.6

Global ocean-level rise

80.0

2

R

= 0.9436

60.0

4.36 + 2.16 = 6.52 mm/yr

40.0

20.0

Local land subsidence

0.0

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

Relative Sea-Level Change

slide10

Barrier Island Cross Section

Protective

Ridge

Bay

Gulf

Wetland

Upland

Island

Core

Upland

Wetland

Upland

Beach/

Dune

Future

Wetland

After 60 Years of Sea-Level Rise and Erosion

Protective

Ridge

Wetland

Island

Core

Beach/

Dune

Upland

Wetland

Upland

Today

Future

Beach/Dune

gulf of mexico shoreline change statistics
Gulf Of Mexico Shoreline Change Statistics
  • 11,708 measurement locations spaced 50 m alongshore = 585.4 km of shoreline length
  • 2 to 10 shorelines at each transect but 80% of transects had 5 or more shorelines
  • Stable = 173.6 km, 29.6%
  • Advancing = 46.3 km, 7.9%, mean = 5.4 m/yr
  • Retreating = 365.6 km, 62.4%, mean = -2.6 m/yr
high 2m yr retreat rates red

Sabine

Pass

Galveston Bay

Bolivar Roads

Matagorda Bay

Colorado River

Pass Cavallo

Corpus Christi

Bay

Aransas

Pass

Baffin

Bay

Brazos Santiago

Pass

High (>2m/yr) retreat rates = red
high 2m yr retreat rates red moderate retreat rates 0 61 to 2 m yr orange

Sabine

Pass

Galveston Bay

Bolivar Roads

Matagorda Bay

Colorado River

Pass Cavallo

Corpus Christi

Bay

Aransas

Pass

Baffin

Bay

Brazos Santiago

Pass

High (>2m/yr) retreat rates = redModerate retreat rates (0.61 to 2 m/yr) = orange
slide16

Sabine

Pass

Galveston Bay

Bolivar Roads

Matagorda Bay

Colorado River

Pass Cavallo

Corpus Christi

Bay

Aransas

Pass

Baffin

Bay

Brazos Santiago

Pass

High (>2m/yr) retreat rates = redModerate retreat rates (0.61 to 2 m/yr) = orangeStable rates (<0.61 m/yr) = blue
slide27

1961

Post Hurricane Carla

slide29

1961 – post Carla

Jamaica Beach

Galveston Isl.

slide30

2002

Jamaica Beach

Galveston Isl.

slide36

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

Wind Direction

&

Relative Speed

Measured at

offshore buoy

#42035

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/22 21:00

slide37

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/23 03:00

slide38

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/23 15:00

slide39

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/23 21:00

slide40

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/24 03:00

slide41

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/24 09:00

slide42

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/24 15:00

slide43

Modeled

Water

Level

Water

Level (m)

ADCIRC hydrodynamic model

University of North Carolina

9/24 21:00

slide44

LA

Calcasieu Pass

TX

Rita Landfall

Sabine

Pass

Rollover

Pass

slide49

Galveston Island State Park Area

H. Rita

Erosion/

Deposition

slide53

Barrier Island Cross Section

Protective

Ridge

Bay

Gulf

Wetland

Upland

Island

Core

Upland

Wetland

Upland

Beach/

Dune

Future

Wetland

After 60 Years of Sea-Level Rise and Erosion

Protective

Ridge

Wetland

Island

Core

Beach/

Dune

Upland

Wetland

Upland

Today

Future

Beach/Dune

causes of wetland loss
Causes of Wetland Loss
  • Marsh Edge Erosion by Waves and Currents
  • Development/Land Use
  • Global Sea-Level Rise
  • Land Subsidence
  • Topographic/Morphology Effects
  • Sediment Deficit
slide56

Shoreline Change

From Gibeaut et al., 2003

slide61

Color IR

Mosaic

Gulf of Mexico

slide66

Wetland Model Flow

Future date

reached?

DEM

(original)

Classify habitat types

according to elevation

Habitat

grid

Yes

No

Adjusted

DEM

Apply

vertical accretion

adjustment

Output

habitat grid

1-year

loop

Apply

global sea level

adjustment

Shoreline

change grid

Retreat

shoreline

Compute

statistics of

habitat status

Apply local

subsidence

adjustment

Maps

Statistics

Graphs

slide73

Geohazards Map Units

West Bay

Gulf of Mexico

slide74

Slide Courtesy of Dr. Gordon Wells

Center for Space Research

The University of Texas at Austin