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Further Challenge in Automobile and Fuel Technologies for Better Air Quality Air Quality Simulation in Japan Clean Air Program II October 28, 2005 Japan Petroleum Energy Center http://www.pecj.or.jp/jcap/ Content Outline of JCAP and Air Quality Model Research

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air quality simulation in japan clean air program ii

Further Challenge in

Automobile and Fuel Technologies

for Better Air Quality

Air Quality Simulation in Japan Clean Air Program II

October 28, 2005

Japan Petroleum Energy Center

http://www.pecj.or.jp/jcap/

content
Content
  • Outline of JCAP and Air Quality Model Research
  • JCAP II Air Quality Simulation Model Development Concept
  • 3.Air Pollution Concentration Simulation Precision
  • 4.Future Air Quality Prediction Results
  • 5.Summary
what is jcap
What is JCAP?

Japan Clean Air Program

  • Collaborative study by automobile and oil industriesto find the best combination of automobile and fuel technologies to improve the air quality of Japan and to provide the government with rational technical data for policy making.
  • Supported by Petroleum Energy Center, a subsidy of METI
  • METI: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
  • JCAP I :1997 – 2001 (Budget: Approx. 5.4 billion yen, Numbers of staffs: over 100 members)
  • JCAP II: 2002 – 2006 (Budget : Approx. 5.6 billion yen, Numbers of staffs: about 130 members)
motivation of jcap 1

0.08

0.18

Roadside

Roadside

0.16

0.07

Urban Background

Urban Background

0.14

0.06

100

0.12

0.05

0.10

0.04

0.08

0.03

0.06

50

0.02

0.04

0.02

0.01

0

0

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year

0

’00

’99

’98

’90

’91

’92

’93

’94

’95

’96

’97

Motivation of JCAP -1-

NO2

SPM

SPM (ppm)

NO2 (ppm)

(Whole Japan Ave.)

Year

():Air Quality Standard

Air Quality:

-Not improved in early 1990’s

-Attainment Ratio was poor at

Urban Area

NO2 (0.06ppm)

Attainment Ratio ( % )

SPM (0.1mg/m3)

Photochem. Oxidant (0.06ppm)

motivation of jcap 2

Bus, Special

Mini PC

Truck

PC

Motivation of JCAP -2-

Emission/Vehicle Reduction vs. Emission Inventory Increase

No. of Vehicles increase

Diesel Increase RV, Fuel Cost, etc.

  • Stringent Emission Regulation introduction
    • -1989 Reg. Diesel NOx
    • -1994 Reg. Diesel NOx
    • -1998 Reg. Diesel NOx and PM
    • -2003 Reg. (Under discussion)
    • -2005 Reg. (Under discussion)

Year

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

15

EU

NOx(g/kWh)

10

EURO3

Japan

EURO4

5

USA

2003Reg.

0

2005Reg.

0.6

Japan

EU

0.4

PM(g/kWh)

2003Reg.

0.2

USA

2005Reg.

0.0

EURO4

EURO3

Combine fuel and automobile technology for further emission reduction

Develop of Air Quality Simulation Model and Evaluate future air quality improvement

target of jcap study

Emissions reduction target

Technical information helpful for

more reasonable environmental measures

Target of JCAP study

Technical evaluation for

automobile emissions reduction

(Automobile technology x Fuel technology)

Estimate of Air quality

improvement

Cost evaluation of

Air quality

improvement

example of jcap results reflection in e nvironment and e nergy p olicies
Example of JCAP Results Reflection in Environment and Energy Policies
  • Great effect of sulfur content in fuel on exhaust emissions. Reflected in fuel standard: 50ppm S content; gasoline/diesel fuel from 2005.10ppm S content; gasoline/diesel from 2008/2007.
  • Great effect of Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of gasoline on evaporative emissions.
    • Reflected in self-imposed control of gasoline RVP.
  • Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) retrofitted to in-use vehicles is not sufficient, under urban driving conditions.
    • Reflected in preparation of Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s diesel vehicle emission regulations.
  • These are reflected through:
  • Experts Committee on Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission,
  • Petroleum Products Quality Sub-committee of Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy,
  • Evaluation Committee of Diesel vehicle Emission Control Technologies.
tasks of jcap ii
Tasks of JCAP II

1. Pursuing the future automobile and fuel technologies aimed at realizing Zero Emissions and improving fuel consumption, based on the latest technologies and overall energy efficiency.

2. Developing Air Quality models with high accuracy to predict real world.

3. Study of un-regulated emissions and nanoparticles from the vehicles.

jcap ii study subject outline
JCAP II Study Subject Outline
  • (1) Automobile and Fuel Technology Study
    • Evaluate high technology for gasoline/diesel vehicles aiming at near Zero Emissions and fuel/oil properties
    • Evaluate emissions and CO2 reduction potential
    • Examine fine particle measurement method and evaluate high technology through high measurement methods

Key Word: Zero Emissions, CO2 reduction, Octane Number of Gasoline, Bio fuel, Nanoparticle, Oil properties (Ash, P,S)

(2) Air Quality Model Study

    • Build Real-world Emission Inventory Simulation Model
    • Build Integrated Air Quality Model of Urban Air Quality Model and Roadside Air Quality Model
    • Evaluate Integrated Air Quality Model and Case Study

Key Word: Real world, High accurate model, Roadside, Nanoparticle

role of jcap ii to regulatory affairs
Role of JCAP II to Regulatory Affairs

Contribution to environment and energy policies through Fair Data

Environmental policies

Energy policies

Forecast for petroleum quality, supply and demand

Prospects of Air Quality improvement effects such as automobile emission reduction

Direction of future automobile

technologies and the required

fuel quality

Emission inventory estimate in real world in the future

Researches on automobile and fuel technologies aimed at realizing Zero emission (compatible with CO2

emission control measures)

Researches on Air Quality Modeling with high-grade accuracy and database establishment enabling to evaluate policies

jcap ii results and incorporation into policy making
JCAP II results and incorporation into policy-making
  • Fuel economy improvement due to fuel sulfur content reduction (from 50 to 10ppm) has been verified.
    • Reported to the Petroleum Products Quality Subcommittee of Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy.

・The report has been incorporated into the Subcommittee report, “Fuelsulfur content should be reduced to 10ppm or less from 2007 for diesel fuel and 2008 for gasoline, respectively.”

  • Air quality improvement effect due to new emission control technologies has been simulated.
    • Reported to a hearing of Experts Committee on Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emissions of the Central Environment Council.
      • The results were used for the 8th report of the Central Environment Council of the Ministry of the Environment as data predicting the air quality improvement effect due to enforcement of stricter emission regulations quantitatively.
slide13

Air Quality Improvement in Japan(Tokyo)

0.10

0.10

100

100

0.08

0.08

0.06

0.06

0.04

0.04

80

80

0.02

0.02

0

0

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

Average NO2/SPM concentrations decreased, and the attainment of the environmental standards is low on the roadside.

Annual Ave. Conc.

Urban Background

Roadside

NO2(ppm)

SPM

NO2(ppm)

SPM(mg/m3)

SPM

SPM(mg/m3)

NO2

NO2

'97

'97

'98

'99

'98

'99

‘00

‘01

‘02

‘00

‘01

‘02

‘03

‘03

’04

’04

Attainment Ratio

NO2

NO2

AttainmentRatio(%)

AttainmentRatio(%)

SPM

SPM

'97

'98

'99

'97

'98

'99

‘00

‘01

‘02

‘00

‘01

‘02

‘03

‘03

’04

’04

general formation of air quality models
General Formation of Air Quality Models

Keyword

Roadside

Meteorological Model

Nanoparticle

2-300km

Airflow Model

1km

Regional Scale Model

Secondary organic

aerosol formation

Condensation

Roadside Model

Coagulation/

Evaporation

Nucleation

Nanoparticle Model

Deposition

Model Integration

slide16

(1) Air Quality Model Data Flow

Meteorological model

Emission inventory estimate other than automobiles

Secondary Aerosol Model

Macro-scale emission inventory Estimate

(Regional / Urban

Air Quality Model)

Macro-scale traffic flow Simulation

Multi-scale Air Quality Simulation Model

(Regional Air Quality Model)

Air pollutant concentrations incl. nanoparticles at roadside ~ in urban area ~ regional area

Effect evaluation of

Automobile

emissions

Road linkage

Road structure

Transport demand

(OD, PT data)

Emission measurement

on chassis-dynamometer

High-emitting vehicle

actual condition survey

(Remote-sensing)

Micro-scale emission inventory Estimate

(Roadside Air Quality

Model)

Roadside Air Quality Simulation Model

Micro-scale traffic flow simulation

2 sensitivity analysis method outline

Present state

Conc.

Data replacement

∂c

Sensitivity analysis

∂e

Parameter

(2) Sensitivity Analysis Method Outline

Sensitivity analysis method in URM

->Decoupled Direct Method (DDM)

(What is DDM?)

Parameterp = e P

(Initial condition, boundary condition, emission inventory, wind speed,

diffusion coefficient, etc.)

Transportation / reaction equation for

Analogous with concentration equation

Solve in parallel with concentrationc

For emission inventory simulation, simulation target place can be appointed.

sensitivity to no 2 time series analysis at kanda central of tokyo

Observed value

Calculated value

Initial conc.

Boundary conc.

Wind speed

Diffusion coefficient

Deposition rate

NOx emissions

Sensitivity to NO2(Time-series analysis at Kanda-Central of Tokyo)

High sensitivity to wind speed in the morning while calculated values are underestimated

High sensitivity to emission inventory while calculated values are small

High sensitivity to deposition rate at night

NO2 conc.

Dec.9

12:00

Dec.9

00:00

Dec.10

12:00

Dec.10

00:00

slide19

(3) Key Points in Air Quality Model development

- Measures for simulation precision improvement

through sensitivity analysis -

  • Establish Multi-scale model

ii)Reproduce complex

weather condition at

city center

iii) Consider

trans-boundary air

pollution

iv) Establish tertiary

grid cell emission

source data

3 1 integration of long range air pollution transportation effect

JCAP I

(3)-1 Integration of long range air pollution transportation effect

Boundary condition: Apply CMAQ simulation results of grid cells ranging

from 10 to 4 km square

CMAQ boundary is set based on East Asia area simulation results

Initial condition: Start the simulation 8 days before the evaluation target day

Dec.8, 1999

Utsunomiya - NO2

URM

Utsunomiya - SPM

CMAQ G2

CMAQ G1

CMAQ East Asia area

Dec.7

00:00

Dec.7

12:00

Dec.10

00:00

Dec.10

12:00

Dec.9

12:00

Dec.8

00:00

Dec.8

12:00

Dec.9

00:00

CMAQ

Observed value

3 2 remote sensing device

(2)

(3)

(1)

(4)

(3)-2 Remote-Sensing Device

(1) Speed-Acceleration Detector

- Comprehend test vehicle driving

conditions

- Exclude inaccurate analysis results because

of exceeding acceleration and deceleration

(2) Emissions Detector

- CO,CO2,HC*: Measurement using Infrared rays (IR)

-NO,PM**: Measurement using Ultraviolet rays (UV)

  • * Conversion into propane (C3H8)
  • ** Conversion into PM weight per 100g of fuel (smoke factor) instead of Opacity

(3) Automatic License Plate Reader

- Test vehicle information such as vehicle type, applicable regulations, GVW,

fuel type, etc. is obtained from license plate. Information is used for emission

test result analysis.

(4) Data Processing Equipment

- Speed-Acceleration, emission measured values, imagery of test vehicles are recorded in real time. Number plate information is input separately.

high emitting vehicle emission inventory estimate method gasoline vehicles only
High-emitting vehicle emission inventory estimate method (Gasoline vehicles only)

2800

RSD Emission inventory measurement

Limit speed/acceleration range, and

set Cut Point for high-emitting vehicles

(Ex. NO: 1250ppm, corresponding to

level of US I/M test Cut Point * 2)

Ratio estimate in number of

high-emitting vehicles by model year

Set emission factor for high-emitting vehicles (Basis: ’78 reg. meeting

vehicle w/o catalyst)

High-emitting vehicle emission

inventory estimate

1978 reg. meeting vehicle

2400

=>

2000

1600

NO [ppm]

1200

800

Cut Point

400

0

-400

=>

-800

2002

1999

1990

1995

1997

1994

1998

2000

1992

1993

1996

2001

1991

1989

1988

First registration year

16

=>

1978 reg. (+ ’98 reg. Idling control) reg. meeting vehicle

14

[%]

(Incl.☆,☆☆,☆☆☆)

2000 reg. meeting vehicle

12

10

8

=>

6

Ratio of high-emitting vehicles

4

2

0

4 yrs

3 yrs

5 yrs

2 yrs

7 yrs

9 yrs

6 yrs

8 yrs

1 yr

0 yr

12 yrs

11 yrs

10 yrs

13 yrs

14 yrs

Vehicle age (First registration year: 2002)

3 3 emission inventory estimate from all emission sources
(3)-3 Emission inventory estimate from all emission sources

Example of emission inventory distribution (NOx)

JCAPⅠ Grid cell size: about 5km

JCAP Ⅱ Grid cell size: about 1km

Add other emission sources which had been excluded from consideration:

Construction, industrial and agricultural machinery, open burning, etc.

slide25

200

(mg/m3)

0

SPM Concentration Distribution (Dec. 10, 18:00)

JCAP I

JCAP II

JCAP I

Emission inventory data

Latest emission inventory data

Air pollution monitoring station observation data

JCAP I

Update of emission inventory

Update of model /

meteorological condition

Consideration of long range air pollution transportation

slide26

64.0

-50.9

29.5

-40.1

36.3

-25.7

45.9

-38.2

38.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

51.1

-69.9

41.3

-48.3

30.6

-34.8

39.7

-41.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

SPM Simulation precision

SPM average conc.

in target area

Normalized Mean Bias

Measured value

JCAP I

JCAP I

Upgrade of model /

meteorological condition

Update of model /

meteorological condition

Update of

emission inventory

Update of

emission inventory

Consideration of

Long range air

pollution

transportation

Consideration of

Long range air

pollution

transportation

SPM average conc. in target area (mg/m3)

Normalized Mean Error

Unpaired Peak Accuracy

JCAP I

JCAP I

Update of model /

meteorological condition

Update of model /

meteorological condition

Update of

Emission inventory

Update of

emission inventory

Consideration of

Long range air

pollution

transportation

Consideration of

Long range air

pollution

transportation

slide28

Automobile

Automobile

Mobile source

Mobile source

Large-scale

point source

Large-scale

point source

Small-scale

point source

Small-scale

point source

Tire wear

Road dust

Total Emission Inventory Estimate

Total emission inventory in the specified area for

Automobile NOx/PM Laws in Kanto bloc (t/day)

NOx

Year 2000

Base case (Spontaneous turnover

before 2005 reg. introduction)

-22%

Introduction of 2005 reg. &

High-emitting vehicle elimination

-32%

Year

2015

Case 1: Emission level reduction to

½ of 2005 reg.

-27%

Case 2: Emission level equivalent

to US 07 reg.

-30%

SPM

Year 2000

Base case (Spontaneous turnover

before 2005 reg. introduction)

-29%

Introduction of 2005 reg. &

High-emitting vehicle elimination

-32%

Year 2015

Case 1: Emission level reduction to

½ of 2005 reg.

-29%

-30%

Case 2: Emission level equivalent

to US 07 reg.

slide29

0

70 (mg/m3)

Year 2000 (with HE /

ME emission factor)

Year 2015 (with HE /

ME emission factor)

Year 2015 (w/o HE.

with ME emission factor)

NOx: -50%, PM: -50%

NOx: -87%, PM: -52%

SPM concentrations

Daily average SPM conc. distribution

Year 2000

(with HE / ME

emission factor)

Year 2015

(with HE / ME

emission factor)

Year 2015

(w/o HE, with ME

emission factor)

NOx: -50%

PM: -50%

NOx: -87%

PM: -52%

Highest conc. in the specified area for NOx/PM Laws

Average conc. in the specified area for NOx/PM Laws

Average SPM conc. (mg/m3)

Highest SPM conc. (mg/m3)

HE: High-emitting vehicle

ME: Ministry of the Environment

5 summary
5.Summary

JCAP II Air Quality Model Study are summarized as follows:

  • Sensitivity Analysis method was introduced for prediction accuracy improvement
  • Multi-scale model, Emission data accuracy and precise meteorological data in central metropolis. are key points for simulation accuracy improvement
  • Air quality simulation is an effective way for policy making to improve future air quality
  • JCAP Model will be opened to the public widely when the JCAP II finished