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Public priorities and expectations of climate change impacts in the United Kingdom

This study examines UK residents' expectations and priorities regarding climate change impacts, comparing them to expert assessments. It also investigates predictors of resource allocation to specific impacts. Findings show differences between public priorities and expert assessments, highlighting the need for better communication and understanding.

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Public priorities and expectations of climate change impacts in the United Kingdom

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  1. Public priorities and expectations of climate change impacts in the United Kingdom Dr Andrea Taylor1,2, Prof Suraje Dessai2, Prof Wӓndi Bruine de Bruin1,3 Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment Email: a.l.taylor@leeds.ac.uk

  2. Funding

  3. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 and 2017. • Threats • Heavy rainfall and flooding • Heatwaves • Food security • Water security • Biosphere • Increased energy use (cooling) • Opportunities • Lower winter morbidity • New crops • Tourism • Reduced energy use (heating)

  4. UK residents associate climate change more strongly with wet than hot weather • (Taylor et al., 2014) • Hot weather elicits positive emotions • (Lefevre et al., 2015) • Public expectations and priorities don’t always match the outputs of formal risk assessment.

  5. What are UK residents’ expectations and priorities with respect to climate change impacts • How do UK residents’ expectations of potential climate change impacts compare to expert assessments? • What are the predictors of willingness to allocate resources to specific impacts?

  6. Secondary analysis of a national survey data (Ipsos MORI, Jan 2013, n=2007). • Randomly presented with 10 out of 19 climate change impacts. • Planned missing data design.

  7. Public services being disrupted as a result of heavy rainfall. More homes being flooded as a result of heavy rainfall. More people’s health suffering in extreme heat due to more frequent heat waves. Some types of wildlife are lost or decline in number…. Fewer vulnerable people dying in the cold due to milder winters. Cities and large towns, which trap heat, becoming unbearably hot due to heat waves. Poor harvests, due to extreme weather, pushing up food prices New crops become more common in the UK due to a warmer climate. Droughts causing serious water shortages due to changes in rainfall patterns

  8. Measures • Likelihood: Agreement that impact likely to occur by 2050 (1=strongly disagree, 5=strongly agree) • Concern: How concerned would you be if impact did occur (1=not at all concerned, 4=very concerned) • Priority: Resources you would be prepared to allocate to the impact (out of 15 tokens) • Climate Change Belief (three items: 1=not at all concerned, 4=very concerned) • Demographic controls (age, gender, education) • Expert Measure of Urgency: 1=highest priority, 4=lowest priority (CCRA, 2017)

  9. Expected likelihood Food and Water supply Rainfall Biosphere Immigration Heat Opportunities

  10. Anticipated concern Food and Water supply Opportunities Immigration Rainfall Biosphere Heat

  11. Priority 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 4 4 1 2 1 1 4 4 Food and Water supply Rainfall Biosphere Heat Opportunities Immigration

  12. What are UK residents’ expectations and priorities with respect to climate change impacts. • Threats related to flooding, food security, and the biosphere rated as most likely. • Threats related to food security, water security and flooding perceived to be most concerning. • Threats related to food security, water security, flooding and hazards to human health prioritised for investment.

  13. How do UK residents’ expectations of potential climate change impacts compare to expert assessments? • Those climate changed impacts prioritised as most urgent in the 2017 Climate Change Risk Assessment were not always those expected to be most likely. • Token allocation suggest that public less willing to prioritise taking advantage of opportunities than experts.

  14. What are the predictors of willingness to allocate resources to specific impacts? • Concern about specific impacts was the only consistent predictor of prioritisation in the model. • Climate change belief did not independently predict resource allocation to any particular impact.

  15. Conclusions • Differences between expert assessments of urgency and public priorities. • UK residents may underestimate the threat posed by heat extremes. • This could potentially lead to them not being prioritised for investment. • Concern about the severity of specific climate change impacts more important for prioritisation.

  16. Supplementary material

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