The Future of Technology

1. The Future of Technology CIO Summit, Lansdowne, VA April 6, 2008 Edward Granger-Happ CIO, Save the Children Chairman, NetHope Executive Fellow, Tuck/Dartmouth

2. The Future of Technology • Looking Back: From where have we come? • Looking Ahead: what are the leading indicators, principles and broad themes? • IT Strategy and the Future: what are our bets and hedges?

3. "The art of prophecy is very difficult-- especially with respect to the future." --Mark Twain

4. Looking Back "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” --George Santayana

5. The price index for computers has dropped 99.997%.

6. In 7 yrs, cost drops 30x and speed increases 400x

7. A Triad of IT Drivers Metcalf’s Law the network effect is exponential Nielsen’s Law high-end user's connection speed grows by 50% per year Moore’s Law CPUs double every 18 months

8. Everything Old is New Left Brain (60s, 90s) Centralized Standardized Generalized Rationale Autocratic Big is Better In-source Tight Right Brain (70s, 80s) Decentralized Customized Specialized Creative Democratized Small is Beautiful Outsource Loose IT Pendulum between the Extremes The next wave?

9. User Revolutions • Users of technology find ways to get what they need • Case of the Wall Street analysts and the Apple II • Centralized and controlling technology policies usually invite revolt among the users. • Seeing this again with influx of consumer applications like SKYPE, Blogger and Facebook in the workplace. • IT managers would do well to heed Lyndon Johnson’s advice: • “better to have them inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in.”

10. Looking Ahead Some Broad Principles

11. Advice from a Hockey Legend “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” --Wayne Gretzky

12. What’s a computer going to be? Verizon FIOS service 100 MB/sec fiber to homes! This is the same speed as the backplane of a laptop 3 years ago!

13. Don’t Bet Against the Network By the time it will take you to work around the connectivity issues, the network will be where you need it to be.

14. Who is Your Leading Indicator?

15. Another Leading Indicator

16. Current University Students • I asked Dartmouth Graduate students: • So what do you use to communicate more, IM or Texting? • Answer: Neither • Neither? • We do everything in Facebook

17. It’s the Social Network not the Wired Network

18. “Did You Know?” presentation, Arapahoe High School in Centennial, Colorado, United States.

19. Why? • The social network is about the way people relate to each other, then work together • Working together in loose-tight ways • “Loose” geography (e.g. the NGO community) • “Tight” purpose (e.g. disaster relief) • Richer collaboration(e.g. NetHope)

20. Who are you spending time with? “If you’re a CIO, you need to spend a lot of time out on the fringes of the Web because that’s where the innovation’s taking place. You need to spend a lot of time with people under 25 years old.” –Gary Hamel

21. For the rest of the world, this is the Internet

22. Looking Ahead The Big Themes

23. Top Ten Themes (for nonprofits) • Continuing explosion of computing hardware triangle • Global communication growing geometrically • The Thomas Friedman Effect • Retirement of the current middle class • Run-the-business software (SaaS ERP) • Increasing regulatory framework • Results-oriented philanthropy • Rise in world-class, operational excellence • Rise in merger and acquisitions • Disruptive innovations

24. Top Ten Themes (for nonprofits) • Continuing explosion of computing hardware triangle • Global communication growing geometrically • The Thomas Friedman Effect • Retirement of the current middle class • Run-the-business software (SaaS ERP) • Increasing regulatory framework • Results-oriented philanthropy • Rise in world-class, operational excellence • Rise in merger and acquisitions • Disruptive innovations

25. 4. Retirement of the current middle class • 50% of people in technology jobs will be leaving their jobs in the next 10 years.  With this will go their knowledge & experience.  More importantly there are fewer technology people to take their place.  : • NASA has 3 times number of people over 60 versus those under 30 • More than 50% of IT workers in US government are eligible to retire by 2013 • Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Case: 40% of TVA’s staff is eligible to retire in 5 years • Immediate impact will be on staffing positions (technology and others!), with a resulting sellers market and bidding war among organizations. This will require three responses: • moving more jobs offshore, developing our field locations to do more headquarters jobs, • moving up food chain to do higher-level tasks in HQ (e.g., integration rather than development for IT), and • use of more standard, off-the-shelf software and tools. • opportunity is keep aging workers engaged, with more creative retirement and semi-retirement plans

26. 8. Rise in world-class, operational excellence • Following corporations, we can expect a rise in world-class, operational excellence to be a factor in nonprofit success. • We will see streamlining programs such as Work Out, Six Sigma and Lean Thinking applied to nonprofits • Our own recent experience with business process improvement (BPI) in Leadership Giving, and the streamlining task force are cases in point. • However, in order to be world class in programs, nonprofits will need to take a “good enough” approach to IT • Corporations will need to do the same

27. 10. Disruptive Innovation • Value chain for a typical non-profit • from donor through fundraising and programs (nonprofit products) to beneficiary • driven by mission • Internet-based technologies making it possible to directly connect donors to beneficiary projects, cutting out the typical role non-profits play. • Not unlike disruption caused by iTunes and MySpace in the music industry. • Three non-profit “dot-com’s” provide the cases to which non-profits need to pay attention • Global Giving, Donors Chose, and Kiva challenge nonprofit value chain. • Role change from providing end-to-end donor-beneficiary experiences to unbundling programs, programs delivery, and quality assurance. • Social entrepreneurs, such as Mohammed Yunus, bring business principles to social problems so that programs are economically sustainable

28. Looking Ahead Strategy & The Future

29. Leveraging IT New Program Venues e.g., US Literacy Program; Bolivia Education Program 1. Child-facing Work Flow Application Program Delivery Program Mgmt, Supply Chain, M&E., etc. 2. Field-facing Increasing Strategic Leverage Work Flow Applications Revenue/Donation Delivery Grant Mgmt, Web Donations, Donor Mgmt 3. Donor-facing 4. Supporting Infrastructure: “Keeping the Lights On” Desktop PC’s, Email, Internet, Servers

30. Six strategic questions ED/CEOs should ask • How can we ensure Convergence rather than Divergence? • How do we balance innovation and foundation building? process and work-flow applications, and reserve some • What’s the technology future and what’s the past? • How do we meet near-term business needs while building for the long term? • How do we invest enough and not too much? • From where will disruptive innovations come for nonprofits come?

31. Six questions for Nonprofit CIOs • What new programs (that directly serve beneficiaries) have you helped engender that would not have been possible without the new use of technology? • What have you done to help close the "productivity gap" in the way your nonprofit delivers programs and operates as an organization? • How have you helped bridge the divide that will be caused by disruptive innovations in the nonprofit space? • For relief organizations: How have you helped disaster response be 50% faster with 50% greater impact? • How have you helped your organization attract and retain knowledge workers (and IT professionals) in the face of crisis of the baby boom generation retirement wave? • What are you doing to move commodity functions out of your organization and contribute time, dollars and support to the truly value-added functions of your agency?

32. What if we’re wrong? Strategy is about making bets!

33. A final piece of advice Before you make your bets: • when there is rapid change and uncertainty, smart organizations vary like mad. • Run pilots, experiments and test ideas. Throw away what doesn’t work. Take to scale that which succeeds.

35. Questions?

36. Appendix • Additional detail slides

37. Worldwide cellular access is exploding

38. International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2002-2005

39. To Build Capacity We Need to Do Seven Things More Effective Impact At Greater Scale Effective, Efficient, Scalable Programs Hiring Training Partnering Processes Standards Advocacy Tools Systems Impact Funding Support