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T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m

中 国 可 持 续 能 源 项 目. T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m. The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, in partnership with The Energy Foundation. Implications of China’s Energy Growth. Michael Wang, Ph.D.,

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T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m

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  1. 中国可持续能源项目 T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, in partnership with The Energy Foundation Implications of China’s Energy Growth • Michael Wang, Ph.D., • Argonne National Laboratory • Doug Ogden, The Energy • Foundation

  2. The Energy Foundation Toward a Sustainable Energy Future Foundation Partnership

  3. Why Energy? SMOG Percent of emissions due to energy ACID RAIN GLOBAL WARMING NUCLEAR WASTE TOXICS Sources: EPA, DOE

  4. Why Energy: Global Warming Carbon Emissions United States Million Metric Tons China Projected Source: LBNL

  5. Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Why Energy: Chinese Pollution in U.S. • 40% of U.S. mercury pollution originates overseas • China emits 25% of global mercury Source: Harvard; USEPA

  6. China: Coal Dependence Carbon Emissions from Coal Use • China consumes 95% more coal per year than the U.S., and rising. Million metric tons Source: EIA 2004

  7. China: Growing Oil Dependence Oil Use in China • By 2020, China will import 80%of its oil Million barrels per day (mbd) Source: EIA 2004

  8. China’s Energy Mix China 2002 World 2002 Source: IEA, 2004

  9. China’s Energy Growth • GDP: Rising at 9.1 percent • Energy: Rising at 10% • Electricity: Rising at 15.5% • Oil up 18% in 2004 (1/3 US) Source: International Energy Outlook, 2004

  10. Heavy Industry Growth • Industry is 63% of GDP • Raw material sector growing faster than expected • Infrastructure construction priority Refined Copper Iron Ore Aluminum Nickel Platinum

  11. Health Impacts • Air pollution levels exceed WHO standards • China has 16 of the 20 most air polluted cities globally Every year: 500,000 premature deaths 75,155,000 asthma attacks Source: World Bank; World Health Organization

  12. China’s Emissions With Advanced Technology

  13. China’s Energy Investment

  14. 2020 Development Target • Quadruple 2000 GDP (4 x $1.08 trillion) • Increase per capita GDP from $850 in 2000 to $3000 in 2020 • Attain “Three Transcendences”: • Sustainable development • Peaceful rise as a great power • Rule of law; harmonious socialist society

  15. World GDP Thru 2050 28% 15% 4% Source: Keystone India

  16. Population Source: International Energy Outlook, 2004

  17. GDP Per Capita U.S. China Source: CIA World Factbook, 2004

  18. Energy Consumption Per Capita Source: Energy Information Administration, 2002

  19. China’s Energy Intensity

  20. China’s Reach for Oil Security World Crude Oil Flows: 43 million barrels/day (2004) of which 35 million via sea lane “chokepoints”

  21. China’s Oil Diplomacy Diversifying supply relationships Buying equity in oil fields Strengthening diplomatic & trade ties with exporters/rogues Seeking sea lane security Asserting South China Sea territorial claims Building strategic petroleum reserve Source: Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 2005

  22. Implications for the U.S. • Rise of “energy nationalism” • Competition for control of sea lanes • Cooperation with rogue nations (e.g., Iran) • Solution: Actively build cooperative institutions • Invite China’s participation in G-8, IEA joint oil reserves initiative • Actively help China reduce energy demand

  23. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Potential

  24. Role of Government • Address failure of markets to recognize public impacts of technologies • Penalize externalities, incentivize beneficial technologies • Commercialization policies: guarantee volume, catalyze learning curve

  25. China’s Efficiency Progress

  26. China’s Efficiency Investment

  27. Energy Growth Far Faster Than GDP Since 2001 Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

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