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Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. ECMWF reanalysis: present and future. Background ERA-15  ERA-40  ERA-Interim Product quality Reanalysis plans at ECMWF. CONTENTS. ERA-15 1979 – 1993 ERA-40 1957 – 2002

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Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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  1. Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF reanalysis: present and future

  2. Background ERA-15  ERA-40 ERA-Interim Product quality Reanalysis plans at ECMWF CONTENTS

  3. ERA-15 1979 – 1993 ERA-40 1957 – 2002 ERA-Interim 1989  … ECDAS ECMWF reanalysis projects

  4. ERA-40 ERA-15 1980 1980 1980 1985 1985 1985 1990 1990 1990 1995 1995 1995 2000 2000 2000 2005 2005 2005 Operational forecast performance 1980-2007 ERA-Interim Monthly time series Moving average Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential ANC reaching 60% Tropics 850 hPa wind vector ABC reaching 70% Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential ANC reaching 60%

  5. Improved data assimilation system Assimilating model T159L60 3D-Var FGAT Analysis of O3 More extensive use satellite radiances ERA-15 experience  ERA-40 blacklist More comprehensive use of conventional observations Use of Meteosat reprocessed winds, CSR data passive Improved SST & ICE dataset Ocean wave height analysis ECMWF reanalyses ERA-40 1957-2002 ERA-15 1979-1993

  6. Observing Systems in ERA-40 2002 1957 METEOSAT Reprocessed Cloud Motion Winds 1982 1988 1979 TOMS/ SBUV 1973 AIRCRAFT DATA CONVENTIONAL SURFACE AND UPPERAIR OBSERVATIONS NCAR/ NCEP, ECMWF, JMA, US Navy, Twerle, GATE, FGGE, TOGA, TAO, COADS, … 1973 1979 1987 VTPR TOVS: HIRS/ MSU/ SSU SSM/I 1991 ERS-1 1995 Cloud Motion Winds ERS-2 1998 ATOVS: AMSU-A

  7. CRUTEM2v (Jones and Moberg, 2003) ERA-40 Trend and variability in two-metre temperature Linear trend (1979-2001): CRUTEM2v 0.31OC/decade ERA-40 0.28OC/decade NCEP 0.19OC/decade

  8. Precipitation change (cm of snow per year): ERA-40 (1992-2001)+ ECMWF OP (2002-03) Satellite radar altimeter 1992-2003 (Davis et al. Science 2005 Vol 308 No. 5730) Surface elevation change rate (cm per year): 1992  2003

  9. The Great Flood of 1953 The greatest surge on record for the North Sea as a whole occurred on 31 January and 1 February 1953. In the Netherlands 1,800 people drowned and in eastern England 307 people died.

  10. February 1953 00UTC The 500 hPa “Carpet” donated to ECMWF by the Netherlands

  11. Sunday 1 February 1953 00UTC 500 hPa geopotential Analysis

  12. Forecast +7D Analysis 1 Feb. 1953 T+168 hours

  13. Wave Analysis 1 Feb. 1953 T+36 hour Wave forecast

  14. ERA-Interim 1989  to continue as CDAS  ERA-40 1957-2002 • Serves as an intermediate reanalysis before the next extended reanalysis • Assimilation has reached September 2004 and will reach real time in the end of 2008 • 1989 - 1998 products publicly available • Input data based mainly on ERA-40 and ECMWF operational observations with a few reprocessed datasets

  15. ERA-Interim 1989  to continue as CDAS  ERA-40 1957-2002 • Data-assimilation system T159L60  T255L60 / 12 hour 4D-Var New humidity analysis and improved model physics • Satellite level-1c radiances Better RTTOV and improved use of radiances, especially IR and AMSU Assimilation of rain affected radiances through 1D-Var Variational bias correction • Improved use of radiosondes Bias correction and homogenization based on ERA-40 • Correction of SHIP/ SYNOP surface pressure biases • Use of reprocessed - Meteosat winds - GPS-RO data CHAMP / UCAR 2001 , GRACE and COSMIC - GOME O3 profiles 1995  • New set of Altimeter wave height data 1991

  16. Daily mean total column water vapour 1989-1998

  17. Daily mean total column water vapour 1989-1998, ERA-Interim-ERA-40

  18. Daily mean total column water vapour 1989-1998, ERA-Interim-SSM/I

  19. Global Total Column Water Vapour

  20. Mean daily precipitation,1989-1998, ERA-Interim

  21. Mean daily precipitation, 1989-1998 ERA-Interim-ERA-40

  22. Tropical Ocean areas

  23. Forecast performance, ERA-40, ERA-Interim and Operations

  24. ERA-75? ERA-Interim • Research & Development as a collaborative effort 2009-2011 • Start of production in 2012 • 1938  2015 and continue as CDAS • Important components • Recovery, organization and homogenization of observations • Improved SST & ICE dataset • Variational analysis technique aimed for reanalysis • Comprehensive adaptive bias handling • Handling of model biases • Coupled atmospheric-ocean reanalysis?

  25. 15 February 2005 00 UTC 500 hPa analysis 4D-Var CONTROL All observations 3D-Var “Surface pressure observations only” 4D-Var “Surface pressure observations only”

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