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ECMWF medium-range forecasts and products

ECMWF medium-range forecasts and products. David Richardson David.Richardson@ecmwf.int Met Ops Section, Jean Bidlot, Mark Rodwell, Roberto Buizza. ECMWF Operational Forecast System. Atmospheric data assimilation 4-dimensional variational data assimilation at 25/80 km resolution and 91 levels

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ECMWF medium-range forecasts and products

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  1. ECMWF medium-range forecasts and products David Richardson David.Richardson@ecmwf.int Met Ops Section, Jean Bidlot, Mark Rodwell, Roberto Buizza Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  2. ECMWF Operational Forecast System Atmospheric data assimilation • 4-dimensional variational data assimilation at 25/80 km resolution and 91 levels Atmospheric global forecasts • Forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 25 km resolution and 91 levels • 50-member ensemble to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 50 km resolution, 62 levels Ocean wave forecasts • Global forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 50 km resolution • European waters forecast to five days from 00 and 12 UTC at 25 km resolution Monthly forecasts: Atmosphere-ocean coupled model • Global ensemble to one month (weekly) 125 km, 62 level atmosphere; 1°, 29 level ocean Seasonal forecasts: Atmosphere-ocean coupled model • Global ensemble to six months (monthly): 200 km, 40 level atmosphere; 1°, 29 level ocean Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  3. Changes to the forecasting system 2005 – 2006 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  4. Medium-range forecast performance Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  5. Time series Acc=0.6 N Hemisphere Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  6. Time series Acc=0.6 S Hemisphere Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  7. Time series Acc=0.6 Europe Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  8. Spring 2006 (MAM) over Europe Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  9. Comparison with other centres Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  10. Time series Z500 N Hemisphere Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  11. Time series Z500 N Hemisphere Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  12. Other centres Z500 N hem 2006 v 2005 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  13. Other centres Z500 Europe 2006 v 2005 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  14. Consistency of high resolution forecast Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  15. Forecast consistency Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  16. Forecast consistency Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  17. Forecast consistency Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  18. Weather parameters – this afternoon Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  19. Waves Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  20. Wave analysis – scatter index Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  21. Wave forecast – scatter index Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  22. Waves – other centres Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  23. Ensemble Prediction System- this afternoon (Roberto Buizza) Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  24. Brier Skill Score for Europe for 96h EPS forecast of precipitation exceeding various thresholds Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  25. EPS spread/skill A diagnostics for the EPS spread (standard deviation of Gaussian) is now available on the internal web site. Problems similar to the one in May 2005 could be identified and corrected Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  26. Diagnostic tool: Standard deviation of gaussian problematic forecast Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  27. Reading plume for 20051125 00UTC run Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  28. Future developments Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  29. VAREPS (2006) • Plan to extend forecast range of EPS to day 15 • Two additional fixed-resolution calibration forecasts will be run • Current products to day 10 will be unaffected • T799 deterministic will remain as now (days 1-10 only) Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  30. VAREPS • Initial implementation • No changes required to access products to day 10 • Individual EPS members archived to day 15 • Straightforward to access days 10-15 (note resolution change at day 10!) • No change required to MARS requests or EMOSLIB (current version: cy281) • First post-processed products • Ensemble mean and spread (standard deviation) to day 15 • Calculate on model grid (was 1.5 degree lat-lon) • Probabilities extended to day 15 (same thresholds as now) • Longer term • EPS products to day 15 will be developed • 15-day VAREPS will be combined with the monthly system (coupling with ocean model) Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  31. Products Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  32. ECMWF Forecast Products • Global forecasts (deterministic) • Fields (Model variables, GRIB) • Time series (BUFR Meteograms) • Direct Model Output (DMO) only • EPS • Fields (GRIB) + Time Series (BUFR EPSGRAMs) • Post-processed products (Clusters, Tubes, EFI) • Monthly and seasonal forecasts: atmosphere-ocean coupled model • Anomalies (Field + Time series) Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  33. EPS forecasts: timeseries (EPSgram) EPSgram for Reading Base Tue 14/06/06 00UTC Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  34. EPS forecasts (post-processed products) Extreme forecast index for 2m temperature Base Sat 10/06/06 00UTC, Valid Wed 14/06/06 12UTC Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  35. Medium-range forecast products • Global Extreme Forecast Index • Indicates areas where today’s EPS has signal of extreme relative to model climate distribution • New EFI climatology introduced with high-resolution system • Verification against observations has started • More this afternoon • Tropical cyclone tracks • More realistic structure in higher resolution system • Indication of reduction in position and intensity errors • 2006 Atlantic season started (Alberto) … • EPSgrams – combine deterministic and EPS forecasts Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  36. Tropical Storm Alberto Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  37. Forecasts of Katrina for Monday 29 Aug. 12 UTCobserved pressure 922 hPa T511 T799 t+36 t+36 t+72 t+72 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  38. T511L60 T799L91 Position error in high resolution T799 is smaller at all forecast steps compared to the T511. Deterministic Scores – T511 vs T799 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  39. T511L60 T799L91 The intensity of tropical cyclones is more realistic in the T799. Deterministic Scores – T511 vs T799 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  40. Combined prediction system developmentMark Rodwell Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  41. CPS - Motivation Mumbai • Highly useful product but… • What should I believe? • At D+2 • At D+5 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  42. CPS – Concept Combining a 10-member ensemble of equally likely members (orange squares) with a single more accurate forecast (yellow rectangle) Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  43. CPS – Results 2001-2005 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  44. CPS – Weights 2001-2005 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  45. CPS – Meteogram Mumbai Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  46. CPS – Meteogram Mumbai Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  47. ECMWF visits to Member and Co-operating StatesAutumn 2005 – spring 2006 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  48. Member State visits – comments (1) • Generally very happy with ECMWF products • High resolution system introduced halfway through this round of visits • How is consistency of T799 model? • No significant change from previous model • ECMWF boundary conditions for limited area models • Some requests for hourly updates (currently 3-hourly) • Discussed at TAC BC subgroup and TAC 2005; agreed not to change • High-impact weather early warnings (medium-range) • We are still interested in feedback and examples, especially of how ECMWF products may be useful Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

  49. Member State visits – comments (2) • Big range of use for the EPS (internal; specific users; general public) • Clusters – • some use ECWF clusters, some do own clustering • ECMWF clustering needs updating • Request for extra area • EPSgrams – noted requests for additional parameters (H/M/L cloud, wind) • How should the EPS be used? • How can EPS be used together with T799? • Increasing interest in monthly forecasts • Interest in potential of seasonal forecasts Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006

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