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Modeling Attacks to Chesapeake Bay Shipping. LT Sarah Watson LT Matt Yokeley. Project Overview. What is this project about? T he goal of this project The scope of this project. Background. Terrorism continues to threaten international cargo

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modeling attacks to chesapeake bay shipping

Modeling Attacks to Chesapeake Bay Shipping

LT Sarah Watson

LT Matt Yokeley

project overview
Project Overview
  • What is this project about?
  • The goal of this project
  • The scope of this project
background
Background
  • Terrorism continues to threaten international cargo
  • There is a larger threat to sea born attack than air born
  • Long term effects of shipping attacks

$

=

+

the network
The Network
  • Chesapeake Bay
    • Covers 64,299 square miles
    • More than 150 rivers feed into it
  • Abstraction
    • One “dummy” start node
    • Three supply ports
    • Ends at Chesapeake Lighthouse
    • 55 arcs
the model
The Model
  • Built using Max-flow

Subject to:

the dual
The Dual
  • The dual gave us optimal attack points

Subject to:

  • Iterated through attacks to find optimal subsequent attacks
process
Process

Select max number of attackers (x= 1-4)

Determine plan of attack

Remove attacked arcs from list

Find number of CG vessels required to prevent complete network shutdown

analysis of one attacker
Analysis of One Attacker
  • Maximum flow of network = 180,235.3 tons

Attackable arcs

Optimal arc for terrorist to attack

Defended arcs

At this point the entire path out of Hampton Roads is protected from attack

analysis of two attackers
Analysis of Two Attackers
  • Maximum flow of network = 180,235.3 tons

Attackable arcs

Optimal arc for terrorist to attack

Defended arcs

analysis of three attackers
Analysis of Three Attackers
  • Maximum flow of network = 180,235.3 tons

Attackable arcs

Optimal arc for terrorist to attack

Defended arcs

analysis of four attackers
Analysis of Four Attackers
  • Maximum flow of network = 180,235.3 tons

Attackable arcs

Optimal arc for terrorist to attack

Defended arcs

The terrorist is able to employ this extra attack as a “reserve” to keep the network down

conclusions
Conclusions
  • It’s possible to shut down all cargo flow by only attacking two arcs
  • Attacker/defender ratio is not one-to-one
  • Compounding increase in goods near the bay entrance causes it to be the major point of concern
  • What’s next?
    • Model distance from CG stations to attack points
    • Use probabilities of attack on arcs
    • Assign priorities to arcs base d on cargo