Feedback from terrestrial productivity changes to the climate
Download
1 / 36

Feedback from terrestrial productivity changes to the climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 96 Views
  • Uploaded on

Feedback from terrestrial productivity changes to the climate Model predictions of greenhouse gas emission at a regional scale Klaus Butterbach-Bahl Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Feedback from terrestrial productivity changes to the climate' - indiya


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

  • Feedback from terrestrial productivity changes to the climate

  • Model predictions of greenhouse gas emission at a regional scale

  • Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

  • Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research

  • Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU)

  • Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe

  • Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany


Change climate

Nitrification

Soil C and N

turnover

Denitrification

Manag.

Soil microbial

community

Temp.

Physico-chemical environment

(radiat., soil T& - moist., compact., O2, C/N avail.)

Plant litter (QA/QN)

& Exudation

Biospere-Atmosphere Exchange of CH4 & N2O

Precip.

Plant species

composition

CO2

CH4-Prod.

Plant Physiology

(WUE, Photosynthesis)

N-Dep.

(O3, …)

CH4-Oxid.

Global Changes and soil N2O and CH4 exchange

Land use

Climate

change

Atmosph.

Compos.


+soil climate

microbial

activity

+soil

N-

cycling

-O2

avail.

+DOC

avail.

Increased N2O

Understanding the environmental feedbacks between C and N cycling

VOC

Increased SOC

NOx

CO2

90%

N2O

60-70%

Photosynthesis

CH4

Isoprenoid-

production

60-70%

Nitrification

Denitrification

CH4-Oxidation

Methanogenesis


The challenge: Regional fluxes climate

  • Bridgingthegap: processunderstanding ↔ ecosystem/ regional fluxes

  • Empirical/ statisticalapproachesforinventories

  • IPCC andemissionfactors

  • Robust (mostlikely), but canhardlybeusedfor

    • evaluatinglanduse/ landmanagementstrategies, or

    • assessingclimate-biospherefeedbacks

  • Processorientedmodeling

  • DayCent, DNDC, CERES, COUP, etc.

  • Complex processesdescriptions, highparameterdemand

  • still needfurtherdevelopmentand UC assessment, but

    • providerealisticsimulationofecosystemprocesses

    • allowtotesthypotheses,

    • canbeusedtoassess global changefeedbacks

4 | V. Name | Organisationseinheit | TT.MM.JJJJ



GIS coupling for GIS – the problem of data climate

GIS database for DNDC

Data source

Data content

format

ISRIC-

WISE

ESDB v1

Clay content

pH

bulk density

Polygon

10km x 10km Grid

Spatial

information

SOIL

Map of Topsoil

OrganicCarbon

SOC

1x1 km2

Grid

GIS

DATABASE

MM5

Temperature

Precipitation

PAR

Latitude

10x10 km2

Grid

CLIMATE

EMEP

N deposition

50x50 km2

Grid

DNDC

CAPRI

Crop type/area

1x1 km2 Grid

EUStat

Fertilizer input

Yield (kg/ha)

NUTS Regions

MANAGEMENT

Emission

Inventory

of European

agricultural soils

Sowing and

Harvest date

(2003)

LUCAS

Points


Global N climate2O budget


Model testing climate


Model testing climate


Model testing climate


Motivation climate

Strategy

Sites&Methods

Results

Australia

Global

Outlook

Model testing

Simulated N2O-emissions [g N ha-1]

Measured N2O-emissions [g N ha-1]


Global GIS climate


Global GIS climate


Global GIS climate


Global N climate2O inventory

Werner et al., 2007, JGR – Global Biogeochem. Cycl.


Interannual variability climate

Werner et al., 2007, JGR – Global Biogeochem. Cycl.


Comparison with earlier estimates climate

  • What is the area we are talking about?(all N2O emissions scaled to the area used in this study; orange: scaled / white: original)

  • Matson and Vitousek 1990: 1.8 Tg N yr-1 (2.4 Tg N yr-1)

  • Bouwman et al. 1995: 1.5 Tg N yr-1 (2.3 Tg N yr-1)

  • Potter 1998: 1.3 Tg N yr-1

  • Breuer et al. 2000: 2.6 Tg N yr-1 (3.55 Tg N yr-1)

  • Stehfest and Bouwman 2006: 1.5 Tg N yr-1 (1.17 Tg N yr-1)

  • This study: 1.3 Tg N yr-1 (± 0.3 SD)

Werner et al., 2007, JGR – Global Biogeochem. Cycl.


Predictions for Europe climate

GIS database for DNDC

Data source

Data content

format

ISRIC-

WISE

ESDB v1

Clay content

pH

bulk density

Polygon

10km x 10km Grid

Spatial

information

SOIL

Map of Topsoil

OrganicCarbon

SOC

1x1 km2

Grid

GIS

DATABASE

MM5

Temperature

Precipitation

PAR

Latitude

10x10 km2

Grid

CLIMATE

EMEP

N deposition

50x50 km2

Grid

DNDC

CAPRI

Crop type/area

1x1 km2 Grid

EUStat

Fertilizer input

Yield (kg/ha)

NUTS Regions

MANAGEMENT

Emission

Inventory

of European

agricultural soils

Sowing and

Harvest date

(2003)

LUCAS

Points



Identifying key regions climate

Crop yield - statistics

Simulated N2O

Simulated NO3 leaching

Crop yield - DAYCENT

Del Grosso et al., 2006, J. Env. Qual.


Inventorying soil N trace gas fluxes and identifying feedbacks

Simulated forest area of Europe: 1 410 477km2


Climate change feedbacks feedbacks

( 2031-2039) - (1991-2000) [A2 scenario]

ECHAM4  MCCM/MM5 regionalisation (60kmx60km)


Climate change feedbacks ( 2031-2039) - (1991-2000) feedbacks

Seasonal changes in soil moisture

Kesik et al., 2006, JGR - Biogeosciences

23 | V. Name | Organisationseinheit | TT.MM.JJJJ


Climate feedbacks on forest soil N feedbacks2O/NO emissions

NO

N2O

Temp.

Precip.

Kesik et al., 2006, JGR - Biogeosciences


Climate feedbacks on forest soil N feedbacks2O/NO emissions

Kesik et al., 2006, JGR - Biogeosciences

25 | V. Name | Organisationseinheit | TT.MM.JJJJ


Climate feedbacks on N feedbacks2O/N2 ratio. Is this realistic?

Kesik et al., 2006, JGR - Biogeosciences


+ feedbacks

+

+

+

?

+

+

?

+

+

?

?

?

?

?

C/N

ratio

+

Primary

production

+

+

?

+

Carbon Cycle

Land use change

Fossil fuel

burning

Industrial N2

fixation

Human

drivers

Atmospheric

CO2

Atmospheric

reactive N

Atmospheric

drivers

Climate warming

N2 fixation

Biogeochemical Cycles

Biologically

Available N

Denitrification

N-Cycle

Gruber & Galloway, Nature 2008


  • Summary feedbacks

  • Nr emission/ deposition processes are by far more complex as compared to e.g. CO2-exchange processes, due to

    • Complexity of involved processes

    • Complexity of feedbacks to environmental drivers

    • Nr cascading on landscape/regional and global scales

  • Understanding of microbial production and consumption processes under changing environmental conditions is still incomplete, and

    • Link between process understanding, field observations and model implementation cannot always be established

    • Closing the N cycling remains difficult due to uncertain N2 losses

  • Long-term measurements are needed [holistic approach]

  • Models need to address the regional scale and linking of biogeochemical models to hydrological models is needed


Atmosphere feedbacks

PLANT PROCESSES

  • Phenology

  • Ressource capture

  • Partitioning

  • Senescence

CO2, N2O,

NH3, NO

SOIL TRANSFERS

  • Heat (Fourier)

  • Water (Tipping bucket)

  • Nitrate (Convective)

mineral N

organic N

C-N BIOTRANSFORMATIONS

Mineralisation - Immobilisation

Nitrification - Denitrification

Soil

Groundwater

Process oriented modeling of ecosystem N- (C-) fluxes

Atmospheric N input

Human

management

Biomassremoval

Crop type/

fertilization

crop residues

absorption

Tillage/

drainage

drainage,

nitrate leaching


aerobic soil matrix feedbacks

anaerobic soil matrix

Conceptual model of an anaerobic balloon

CH4-consumption

CO2

CH4

DOC

CH4

CO2

CH4-production

denitrification

NO3-→ NO2-→ NO → N2O → N2

N2O

NO

NO3-

NO2-

NH4+

nitrification


Model evaluation: SOC dynamics feedbacks

Illinois, USA

Rothamsted, UK

wheat/fallow

Winter wheat

barley/potato/wheat/sugarbeet

Bad Lauchstädt, Germany

Waite, Australia

Li, Frolking, Butterbach-Bahl, Climatic Change, 2005


Model evaluation: N feedbacks2O fluxes

Li, Frolking, Butterbach-Bahl, Climatic Change, 2005


Model evaluation: NO fluxes [forests] feedbacks

Kesik et al., 2006, Biogeosciences


34 feedbacks | V. Name | Organisationseinheit | TT.MM.JJJJ


Eh changes driven in CH feedbacks4/N2O fluxes in rice paddies

Li et al., 2005,Glob.Biogeochem. Cycl.


Model evaluation: Soil water fluxes feedbacks

Altdorf

Flossenbürg


ad