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Session 8 Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

Session 8 Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism. John C. Pine, Louisiana State University William Waugh, Georgia State University. Terrorism.

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Session 8 Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

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  1. Session 8Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism John C. Pine, Louisiana State University William Waugh, Georgia State University Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  2. Terrorism • Terrorism or the threat of terror involves acts of violence used in peace, conflict or war and are acts that shock the senses of reasonable people (Simonsen). • Terrorism is violence or the threat of violence used and directed in pursuit of or in service of a political aim. Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  3. Definitions of Terrorism (Rosie 1987) • Violence or threatened violence intended to produce fear or change (simple definition) • Criminal violence violating legal codes and punishable by the state (legal) • National or other groups used to attack other interests (state-sponsored) • Power of the government used to repress its people to the point of submission (state) Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  4. Hoffman (1998) distinguishes terrorist acts from other types of criminal acts • Terrorism has political aims and motives • Terrorism is violent or acts that threaten violence • Terrorism acts have far-reaching psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victim or target; • The terrorist act is conducted by an organization with an identifiable chain of command or structure; • Perpetrated by a sub-national group or non-state entity. Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  5. Terrorist incidents may include: • Verbal or written threats of violence, • Physical attacks with or without weapons, • Attacks using chemical, biological agents, nuclear or radiological materials; • Destruction of power stations, water systems, and other critical infrastructure systems. Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  6. Continuity of government services Transportation Utilities Banking & Finance Information & Communication Public Health Emergency Services Recreation Religious, academic or cultural institutions Commercial or industrial sites Special events such as celebrations Potential Domestic Targets to Terrorism Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  7. Risk Assessment • Risk assessment involves the clarification of the nature of a risk, including its probability of occurrence and likely intensity, and measuring its potential impact on people, property and the environment. Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  8. Risk • Risk is reflected in the equation stating that risk is the likelihood of an event occurring multiplied by the consequence of that event. • Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x Consequence Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  9. Terrorism Risk Assessment • Terrorism is chronic and an ongoing threat; • The goal of terrorism risk assessment initiatives is to improve preparedness against potential terrorist attacks; • It may be used to establish local, regional and state priorities for terrorism planning; • It helps to clarify vulnerability of local, regional or state targets; • The impacts of a hazardous condition can come in the form of vulnerability or consequence assessment. Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  10. Vulnerability • A description or measure of what is exposed and susceptible to hazard impacts rather than a prediction of what will happen. • Vulnerability focuses on measurable physical, political, economic or social variables. Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  11. Terrorism Vulnerability Profile • The approach uses the concept of the “most likely scenario” as a basis of analysis. • The approach assumes that an attack would produce death, injuries, or infrastructure damage that would overwhelm the jurisdiction’s emergency response capabilities including any mutual aid agreements/assistance pacts. Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  12. Terrorism Events (Hoffman 1998) • Rarely uncontrolled • Premeditated and carefully planned • Targets and methods based on the sponsoring group’s: • Aims • Resources • Personalities of key members • Internal dynamics of the group Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  13. Level of Visibility • Invisible – Classified Location 0 • Very Low Visibility – Not aware of its existence 1 • Low Visibility – Probably not well known existence 2 • Medium Visibility – Existence is probably known 3 • High Visibility – Existence well known 4 • Very High Visibility – Existence is obvious 5 Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  14. Criticality of Target Site to Jurisdiction • No Usefulness 0 • Minor Usefulness 1 • Moderate Usefulness 2 • Significant Usefulness 3 • Highly Useful 4 • Critical 5 Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  15. Value of Target to Terrorist • None 0 • Very Low 1 • Low 2 • Medium 3 • High 4 • Very High 5 Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  16. Access to Target • (0) Fenced, Guarded, Controlled Access by Pass Only, No Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet • (1) Guarded, Controlled Access of Visitors and Non-Staff Personnel, No Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet • (2) Protected, Controlled Access of Visitors and Non-Staff Personnel, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet • (3) Controlled Access of Visitors, Unprotected Entry, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet • (4) Open Access to all personnel, Unprotected Entry, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet • (5) Open Access to all personnel, Unprotected Entry, Vehicle Parking within 50 feet Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  17. Site Population Capacity • 0 (0) • 1 – 250 (1) • 251 – 500 (2) • 501 - 1000 (3) • 1001 – 5000 (4) • > 5000 (5) Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

  18. Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties • 0 to 100 (0) • 101 to 500 (1) • 501 to 1000 (2) • 1001 to 2000 (3) • 2001 to 5000 (4) • > 5000 (5) Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

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