Influence of space climate and space weather on the Earth

1. Influence of space climate and space weather on the Earth Tamara Kuznetsova IZMIRAN Russia Heliophysical phenomena and Earth's environment, 7-13 September 2009, Sibenik, Croatia

2. Topic and its importance • Topic is connection between temporal changes of solar activity (W) and fundamental parameters of the Earth: global temperature (Tgl) and rotation velocity ()on different time scales • IPCC: solar influence on climate is the most unclear mechanism. Present trend in Tgl ~0.5-0.60C/100yr is effect of manmade gas CO2. Akasofu (2007): “IPCC rate contains significant natural components”

3. Aims of the study • To identify and to analyze temporal changes of oscillations with the same periods from the spectra of Tgl, W and ωin the past, present and close future • To compare long-term trends in W (which determines space climate) and in Tgl • Based on results of analysis to discuss possible physical mechanisms

4. Methods and data used • Nonlinear spectral method named by the method of global minimum (MGM).MGM allows self-consistent identification of non-stationary sinusoidsand trends from data (Kuznetsova et al,. 1995 Tsirulnik et al., 1997) • Annual sunspot numbers W for 1700-2005 • Global temperature – multi proxy data from 17 sites worldwide for the last 1000 years– Jones et al. (1998). Millennial temperature reconstraction, data series #1998-039. • Earth’s rotation rate  for period 1656-2000 - Sidorenkov (2002);

5. Long-term trend in temperature

6. Parameters of 1000-yr trend in Tgl

7. Parameters of 1000-yr trend in Tgl

8. Trends in W and Tgl

9. Comparison of spectra W, Tgl, ω • We analyze components of the spectra which statistical confidence level is higher than 95 % • Spectra of W and Tgl (within error bars) have cycles with the same periods: T=200, T=130, T=48, T=30, T=22, T=24, T=10 yrs • Spectra of W and ω (within error bars) have cycles with the same periods:T=200, T=130, T=48, T=30, T=22, T=24, T=10, T=5.3 yrs

10. 200-year cycle in Tgl and ω

11. 30-yr and 10-yr cycles in W and Tgl

12. 22-year cycles in W and Tgl

13. Analysis of 22-year cycles • 22-yr cycles in W and in Tgl vary in phase during all interval: even 11-yr solar cycles correspond to cooling of Tgl, but odd 11-yr cycles to warming • 22-yr cycles in Tgl and in ω vary in phase during all interval: necessary impulse moment for Tgl to be changed (change of atmosphere circulation) is not taken from the Earth. • 22-yr temperature cycle in NH and SH vary almost in opposite phase (but has different amplitudes): 22-yr cycle in Tgl is result of asymmetric influence of odd and even 11-yr solar cycles on the hemisphere temperature (can be explained by electromagnetic interaction of solar magnetic and electric fields with geospheres)

14. Conclusions • Contributions of trends play determining role in data of W and Tgl for analyzed time interval • Change of oscillation regime of the 1000-yr cycle in Tgl (trend) that lead to rise of its amplitude occurred in ~1250 during anomaly of Earth’s rotation. Rise of Tgl with rate ~0.50C/100 yr from Maunder minimum to present is comparable with what IPCC presents as CO2 effect. The cycle will reach its maximum at ~2200 yr. The 2000-yr cycle in W (trend) shows synchronous changes with the trend in Tgl for period 1700-2000. • Connection of W and Tgl has different character on different time scales: 130-yr cycles vary in phase before ~1870 and in antiphase after; 200-yr cycles – in phase; 30-yr and 10-yr cycles vary in opposite phase; 22-yr cycles vary in phase etc. The latter points to that even and odd 11-yr solar cycles influence by different way on Tgl.

15. Heliophysical phenomena and Earth's environment, 7-13 September 2009, Sibenik, Croatia THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!