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The Oregon Grass Seed Industry. “A Reality Check” Matt Herb, President OSTA, OSC, OSGL. October 23, 2009. DROP IN DEMAND . General economic conditions Uncertainty of future Unemployment Lower housing starts Different priorities Higher input costs for consumers Fuel Fertilizer

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the oregon grass seed industry

The Oregon Grass Seed Industry

“A Reality Check”

Matt Herb, President

OSTA, OSC, OSGL

October 23, 2009

drop in demand
DROP IN DEMAND
  • General economic conditions
    • Uncertainty of future
    • Unemployment
    • Lower housing starts
    • Different priorities
  • Higher input costs for consumers
    • Fuel
    • Fertilizer
    • Chemicals
    • Labor
  • Lower tax revenues - lower spending on schools, parks, roadsides
  • Lower golf rounds
  • Lower beef cattle numbers, milk prices
  • Stronger dollar against foreign currencies
increase in input costs
Increase in Input Costs
  • Higher
    • Fuel
    • Fertilizer
    • Chemicals
    • Labor (Oregon is #2 for minimum wage)
    • More Legislation that increases cost
      • Burn ban
      • Bio-fuels
      • Taxes
      • User fees
      • Licenses
annual ryegrass
ANNUAL RYEGRASS

5 year average usage 253 million lbs.

‘08/’09 usage 228 million

‘09/’10 est. usage 228 million

July 1, 2009 carryover 50 million

’09 est. crop 216 million

July 1 2010 carryover 38 million

14 month supply

perennial ryegrass
PERENNIALRYEGRASS

5 year average usage 213 million lbs.

‘08/’09 usage 146 million

‘09/’10 est. usage 166 million (20 mill less for MN & CAN)

July 1, 2009 carryover 100 million

’09 est. crop 154 million

July 1 2010 carryover 88 million

18 month supply

tall fescue
TALL FESCUE

5 year average usage 228 million lbs.

‘08/’09 usage 228 million

‘09/’10 est. usage 198 million (30 mill add MO K-31)

July 1, 2009 carryover 120 million

’09 est. crop 210 million

July 1 2010 carryover 138 million

20 month supply

orchardgrass
ORCHARDGRASS

5 year average usage 15 million lbs.

‘08/’09 usage 10 million

‘09/’10 est. usage 10 million

July 1, 2009 carryover 3 million

’09 est. crop 13 million

July 1 2010 carryover 6 million

19 month supply

red clover
RED CLOVER

4 year average usage 5.5 million lbs.

‘08/’09 usage 3.5 million

‘09/’10 est. usage 3.5 million

July 1, 2009 carryover 2 million

’09 est. crop 5 million

July 1 2010 carryover 3.5 million

24 month supply

white clover
WHITE CLOVER

4 year average usage 2.8 million lbs.

‘08/’09 usage 1.9 million

‘09/’10 est. usage 1.9 million

July 1, 2009 carryover 1 million

’09 est. crop 4.5 million

July 1 2010 carryover 3.5 million

34 month supply

what can we do
WHAT CAN WE DO?

Reduce acres to match current demand

Alternative crops

Reduce inputs and input cost

Reduce labor

Explore programs- FSA, NCRS, ODA, etc.

Develop a cropping plan

Develop a marketing plan

decisions
DECISIONS

Decide to be profitable!

Decide to think outside the box!

Decide to control fear and greed!

Decide to think “industry” instead of “self”!