simulation and analysis of cascading failure in critical infrastructure n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 16

Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 109 Views
  • Uploaded on

Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure. Robert Glass 1 , Walt Beyeler 1 , Kimmo Soram ä ki 2 , Morten Bech 3 and Jeffrey Arnold 3 1 Sandia National Laboratories 2 European Central Bank 3 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “heavy tail” region.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure' - hunter


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
simulation and analysis of cascading failure in critical infrastructure

Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure

Robert Glass1, Walt Beyeler1, Kimmo Soramäki2,

Morten Bech3 and Jeffrey Arnold3

1Sandia National Laboratories

2European Central Bank

3Federal Reserve Bank of New York

first stylized fact multi component systems often have power laws heavy tails

“heavy tail”

region

First Stylized Fact: Multi-component Systems often have power-laws & “heavy tails”

“Big” events are not

rare in many such systems

Earthquakes: Guthenburg-Richter

Extinctions, Forest fires

log(Frequency)

Wars, Epidemics, Cities

Traffic jams, Stock crashes

Power Blackouts

Telecom outages

log(Size)

power law critical behavior phase transitions

Dissipation

Power Law - Critical behavior – Phase transitions

Equilibrium systems:

e.g., Magnets & the Curie point

What keeps a non-equilibrium system at a phase boundary?

Correlation

External Drive

Temperature

Tc

slide4

Drive

Relaxation

Cascade from

Local Rules

1987 Bak, Tang, Wiesenfeld’s “Sand-pile” or “Cascade” Model

Lattice

“Self-Organized Criticality”

power-laws

fractals in space and time

slide5

Second Stylized Fact: Networks are Ubiquitous

Food Web

Molecular

Interaction

New York state’s

Power Grid

Illustrations of natural and constructed network systems from Strogatz [2001].

special properties of the scale free network
Special properties of the “Scale-free” network

Power-law degree distribution

Hierarchical with

“King-pin” nodes

Properties:

vulnerable to informed attack…

tolerant to random failure

slide7

Other

Networks

Nodes

Links

Tailored

Interaction Rules

Actors

Drive

Dissipation

Our Conceptual Approach: Rules ON Networks for Bottoms up Simulation of Infrastructures

PolyNet

Built in Repast

Network

Adapt

& Rewire

slide8

Development & Applications

Abstract Studies

Stylized Physical Infrastructure Applications:

High Voltage Electric Power Grids

Payment and Banking Systems

Information Networks

Physical + SCADA + Market + Policy Forcing

Stylized Social Applications:

Epidemics

Social/Report Network Evolution

Self-organized Terrorist/Extremist groups

Crisis and recovery from WMD & Bio attacks

Where we are headed:

Combined Physical-Human “Infrastructure” Systems

slide9

Fish-net

or Donut

size

time

Scale-free

log(freq)

log(size)

BTW sand-pile on varied topology

Random sinks

Sand-pile rules and drive

10,000 nodes

slide10

Fish-net

Fish-net

or Donut

size

time

Scale-free

Scale-free

size

time

Cascading Blackouts

Sources, sinks, relay stations, 400 nodes

DC circuit analogy, load, safety factors

Random transactions between sources and sinks

slide11

Balance

0

Opening

balance

adapts to

control risk

0

Time

Trading Day

Pay

Balance

Training Period

Cascading Period

Balance

0

Time

Cascading Liquidity Loss within Payment Systems

banks

payments

slide12

Patterned Transactions

Random removal vs Attack of the Highest Degree node

bank defaults

time

liquidity

time

Cascading Liquidity in Scale-free Network

slide13

Agent classes

Teen Laura Glass’s Groups

me

Links

&

Frequency

me

Extended Family

me

Teen Extra

Class Specific

Parameters

me

me

  • Infectivity
  • Mortality
  • Immunity
  • Etc.

Nuclear Family

Classes (There are 6 of these)

Kids

Teens

Everyone

Adults

Seniors

Cascading Infectious Diseases

Parameters can change when

Symptomatic

13

slide14

Influenza Epidemic in Structured Village of 10,000:

Increasing Realism

Without Immunity

Agent differentiation

With Immunity & Mortality

Behavioral Changes when Symptomatic

Structure: Heterogeneous Network + Like with Like

14

slide15

Seniors only (yellow)

Current policy

Kids & Teens!

Flu Epidemic Mitigation: Vaccination Strategies

<60% required

Network Structure + Physics of Transmission Process

Allows Effective Mitigation Design

slide16

General Remarks:

Concepts from Complexity Science are valuable and allow a simulation approach for critical infrastructures that is flexible and has wide ranging applications

Focus on POLICY

Detailed applications with

Domain experts

Developmental directions

Generalization/Abstraction

Encapsulation/Integration

-NABLE

-BOF simulator

Tools/Insight for Rapid deployment