Future of Critical Infrastructure

1. Future of Critical Infrastructure September 24, 2010

2. The infrastructure environment is changing rapidly Over the next 20 years, those charged with protecting infrastructure will face unprecedented challenges brought on by accelerating change.Here a but a few examples:

3. But not everything will change … We are dealing with deteriorating infrastructures while addressing the challenges of emerging infrastructures And the functions of today’s sectors will continue to be vital, However these “sectors” will become more interdependent and their uniqueness will begin to blur www.foxnews.com/static/managed/img/World/Haiti Haiti Earthquake, January 2010

4. Nine conditions that underlie the future infrastructure and risk environment By exploring these conditions and their convergences, we can gain a better understanding of the potential risks associated with the future CIKR environment

5. Climate change will place greater strain on existing and future infrastructure Coastal floods, rain, droughts, fires, and other climatic events will test a wide range of critical infrastructure Temperature Ice Melt Ocean Acidification • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/threats.shtml http://current.com/items/89163658_climate_change

6. Migration, urbanization, and population growth will change the way citizens rely on local infrastructure By 2025, the global population is expected to be 7.9 billion, mostly in developing countries. 60% of the world population will live in cities, many of which will be located on coastlines Global population growth will increase demand for scarce natural resources and strain infrastructures (water, food, energy, etc) Source: United Nations (adapted

7. Necessary maintenance, repair and replacement of aging infrastructure will take time and investment Near term costs are high, but long term costs could be disastrous • Bridges: it will cost over $930B over next 10 years to eliminate bridge deficiencies • Dams: $12.5B is needed over the next 5 years to address all critical non-federal dams • Transit: $15.8 billion is needed annually just to maintain existing transit conditions • Wastewater: EPA estimates it needs $390B over the next 20 years to meet increasing demand From: Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, ASCE 2009

8. Potential disruptive technologies have both positive and negative implications for infrastructure protection The convergenceof technology can have the most profound impact on society and may even create new emerging “sectors” • Nanotechnology • Biotechnology • Alternative fuels and energy • Robotics • Imaging • Sensing • Communications • Information Storage and Management • Materials • Networks

9. Unprecedented reliance on cyber and IT brings opportunity and risk to infrastructure protection • Cyber will cross all other infrastructures as we know it • Information and technology will enable a “smart” or more computer-controlled infrastructure and smarter protection of it • By 2020, use of mobile computing in health care will extend average life spans by 20 to 25 years • Implanted wireless devices will continuously monitor health, enabling the medical profession to treat most diseases in their absolute infancy Information and technology will enable smarter infrastructure and smarter protection and a emerging “virtual world” to consider http://www.osti.gov/innovation/research/cyberinfrastructure

10. Various technologies will lead to ubiquitous situational awareness across infrastructure sectors The convergence of sensortechnologies and wireless networking will give many people - both good and bad - access to infrastructure information Source: Open Geospatial Consortium http://www.opengeospatial.org/ogc/markets-technologies/swe

11. Blurred national borders will force us to rethink our approach to securing critical infrastructure • There will be less control over security as the US depends more on the global supply chain, and is less able to directly influence protection As the US is more connected to the global economy, the distinction between domestic and foreign infrastructure is increasingly unclear Integrated systems will exploit greater vulnerabilities. The world’s financial, economic, energy, environment, and other systems are becoming increasingly interconnected Source: Bill Kerr Blogsport http://billkerr.blogspot.com/

12. Hyper-empowered individuals and adversaries will become more sophisticated Terrorists are more likely to launch strategic attacks, aimed at causing significant disruption to our infrastructure systems • Individuals and groups will continue to attain greater access to worldwide knowledge, technology, and finances formerly achievable only by nation-states • There will be an increasingly asymmetric threat environment • Adversaries will be able to manipulate information systems, to disrupt response systems, halt public services, disable security systems, gain intelligence, and compromise public trust

13. The future domestic legal and regulatory environment must address increasingly complex systems Changes to our technological, economic and social fabric will force changes in the legal and regulatory environment for infrastructure protection • Questions of private rights versus open access will likely necessitate changes to existing privacy laws to regulate access to increasingly available information • Adversaries will remain agile within this information environment, as they are not bounded by domestic legal restrictions • As technological advancements occur at an increasingly rapid pace, regulation will become more complex as government will have to design regulations that keep up with a changing environment

14. All nine of these areas will occur in simultaneous and convergent ways Anticipating and preparing for convergences will be the primary challenges for those protecting our critical infrastructure in the 21st century

15. These conditions and convergences imply the need for specific actions Space Knowledge

16. These conditions and convergences imply the need for specific actions Space http://www.css.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/pstp/proj-prop/call-appel/infrastructure/infrastructure_s04-eng.asp

17. These conditions and convergences imply the need for specific actions

18. “It is critical that we think beyond the next budget cycle” Thank you Aaron Schulman, Toffler Associates aschulman@toffler.com