Whether Our Levers Are Long Enough and the Fulcrum Strong?

1. Whether Our Levers Are Long Enough and the Fulcrum Strong? Exploring the Soft Underbelly of Adaptation Decisions and Actions Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO USA Living with Climate Change: Are There Limits to Adaptation? • London • February7-8. 2008

2. A Quick Lesson in Physics Give me a lever long enough, and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world. Archimedes (287 BC – c. 212 BC) Principles: - A lever helps to move a big object (placed near a pivot point) by exerting only a small force (applied from a longer distance from the pivot point). - The longer the lever, the smaller the force needed to move an object of a given weight. - The fulcrum is what focuses and multiplies the force applied to the object that is to be moved.

3. Overview of Presentation • The case for moving beyond “adaptive capacity” • Governance: Definition and key questions • A decision-centered, diagnostic approach to governance • The choice of where we (plan to) adapt • The institutions and players involved • The influences on adaptation decisions • Living with the aftermath of our choices • Conclusions • Coda: Ethical imperative for scientists

4. Need for a Critical Examination of Our True Ability to Adapt • Concern with the fast pace of climate change, specter of abrupt climatic shifts • Persistent and growing gap between rich and poor, in any country • High societal vulnerability to climate extremes even in developed countries • System lags in social systems • Impatience with the rather slow response of national and local governments to climate change impacts to date • Critique of the almost exclusive emphasis on adaptive capacity while neglecting the question of use and realization in actual adaptation actions

5. The Levers: Determinants of Adaptive Capacity • Economic resources • Technology • Information, knowledge and skills • Infrastructure • Institutions • Equitable access to the above (Commonly, variable across space, time, sectors, and social groupings) (e.g., Smit, Pilifosova, et al. 2001; Yohe and Tol 2002; Adger et al. 2007)

6. The Fulcrum: What is Governance? = The set of decisions, actors, processes, institutional structures and mechanisms (incl. decision authority and underlying norms) involved in determining a course of action. • More than institutional analysis • More than “government” – i.e., not restricted to public-sector actors, but all actors involved • Dialectic tension between structure and agency • Decisions and decision-makers are central

7. The Fulcrum: Governance as the Support on Which the Levers Turn Some Guiding Questions for Theme 3: • In what ways do governance structures and processes matter in principle for the enhancement or realization of adaptive capacity? • To what extent are governance structures and processes in any specific instance in place, functional, and effective in supporting the use of economic, technological, policy, and informational levers one could apply to affect change? • When and how do governance structures enable and channel adaptive actions, when do they delay or render them ineffective? • When do these structures and processes function as (mutable) barriers or even as de facto (non-negotiable) limits to adaptation?

8. Decision-Centered Diagnostic Approach Politics, Economy Culture, Science • In which arena are adaptation decisions to be made? • Who initiates or holds responsibility for developing adaptation options? Who has (potentially) decision-making and implementation authority? • What influences adaptation decisions? • What are the outcomes of a decision, once made, and how do the decision-makers and affected stakeholders live with them? Community Sector Companies Agencies Stakeholders Decision-makers Decisions

9. The Adaptation Arena • In which arena are adaptation decisions to be made? • Who initiates or holds responsibility for developing adaptation options? Who has (potentially) decision-making and implementation authority? • What influences adaptation decisions? • What are the outcomes of a decision, once made, and how do the decision-makers and affected stakeholders live with them?

10. management responsibility social norms and expectations enabling legislation research funding status of scientific knowledge research programs disciplinary stove-piping, blind spots available technical expertise prevailing economic goals and priorities relative importance via science, assessments selective valuation of some aspects of our lives political attention/ maneuvering/ silencing Adaptation Arenas: Why this and not that? political, social, scientific context of adaptation governance occurrence of focusing/ distracting event range of parties interested, partaking Societal values competing knowledge claims public discourse/ civic mobilization perceived “solutions” presence/ absence of leader or champion stage in evolution of issue domain

11. In which arena are adaptation decisions to be made? Who initiates or holds responsibility for developing adaptation options? Who has (potentially) decision-making and implementation authority? What influences adaptation decisions? What are the outcomes of a decision, once made, and how do the decision-makers and affected stakeholders live with them? Decision-making entity Individual decision-makers Interactions among decision-makers Initiation, Planning, Implementation

12. Which government agency/ies or private-sector entity/ies? At which level(s) of governance? How is this level of decision-making linked to other levels, sectors, communities, and constituents? General mandates and authority? Scale of decision impact? Laws, rules and regulations that guide, constrain decisions? Do they allow, enable, support or hinder adaptation actions? Accountability for decisions? Financial resources available for adaptation planning and implementation? Specific mandate to engage in adaptation planning and action? Level of support from leadership, staff, and constituents? Historic experience with the entity’s/ies’ functionality and accountability? Initiation, Planning, Implementation:A. The decision-making entities Action space within which decision-makers can maneuver

13. Mission and mandate Authorities and duties Job description Accountability Requirement to consider climate change “Soft” factors professional identity personal ambition work ethic Resource availability, access, and rights or entitlements Sense of entitlement, capacity, and empowerment Perception of climate change as “extra” or “integral” Perception of climate change as a priority Perceptions of vulnerability, capacity to affect the problem Ability to balance attention to climate change with other priorities and responsibilities Initiation, Planning, Implementation:B. Individual decision-makers Perceived flexibility/constraints on taking action on climate change

14. Initiation of adaptation planning process? Leadership? Elite/exclusive or broad/inclusive decision process? Identification of relevant participants? Collaboration among neighboring decision-makers? Collaboration across scale? Collaboration across management sectors? Engagement of stakeholders? Resource access? Authorities, responsibilities of involved actors? Complementary or contradictory missions and goals? Formal and informal “rules of engagement”? Novelty of interaction, historical legacies? Quality, form, frequency of communication and interaction? Initiation, Planning, Implementation:C. Interactions among decision-makers Effectiveness, expediency of communication & interaction; trust building; information sharing; collective learning; power struggles; inequities

15. In which arena are adaptation decisions to be made? Who initiates or holds responsibility for developing adaptation options? Who has (potentially) decision-making and implementation authority? What influences adaptation decisions? What are the outcomes of a decision, once made, and how do the decision-makers and affected stakeholders live with them? Personal values, beliefs, attitudes, and capabilities Decision-support resources The “solutions” options Influences on Adaptation Decisions

16. Awareness, concern with climate change science and impacts? Underlying, general environmental values and perceptions? Knowledge and understanding of the issues involved? Ability and inclination to acquire necessary information and knowledge, learn, use information in decision-making? Personal interests, ambitions, and goals, duties and obligations vis-à-vis work? Perceived power and capacity, role at work, in society, vis-à-vis posterity? Social norms and expectations, peer pressures, peer support? Motivation Knowledge/ Information Resistance/ Barriers Adaptation Action Influences on Adaptation Decisions:A.Values, beliefs, attitudes, capabilities Adapted from Moser & Dilling (2007) Motivation to lead, participate; capacity, willingness, and incentives to engage

17. Access to critical information, tools, and knowledge Understand the problem, causation, future trends Develop and critically assess response options Monitor impacts for adaptive management More than information... Sensitivity of decision to various uncertainties Useful scale and format to easily integrate into existing decision processes Timing of delivery Contested knowledge? Periodic review of state of knowledge? Willingness and capacity to learn Influences on Adaptation Decisions:B.Decision-support resources Decision support can motivate; Lack thereof can present hurdle, but not absolute limit to adaptation.

18. Perceived or real barriers to action The options Feasibility of implementation Effectiveness “Collateral”: Expected impacts of different choices The primacy of technological “solutions” Availability Accessibility Affordability Advisability Acceptability Influences on Adaptation Decisions:C. The “solutions” options Source: http://www.ecoboot.nl/ The 5 A’s of technological responses may constitute mutable barriers or de facto limits to adaptation.

19. Adaptation Outcomes • In which arena are adaptation decisions to be made? • Who initiates or holds responsibility for developing adaptation options? Who has (potentially) decision-making and implementation authority? • What influences adaptation decisions? • What are the outcomes of a decision, once made, and how do the decision-makers and affected stakeholders live with them?

20. Mechanisms to trace the impacts of adaptation choices? near-term, longer-term environmental, differential social impacts Institutional mechanisms to revisit previous adaptation choices? Social/political mechanisms to address social justice concerns, power imbalances? Definition and measurement of effectiveness? According to whom? Weighting and comparison of differential outcomes? Adjudication among different goals, embedded values? Reversibility of adaptation actions and (non)actions? Flexibility (socially, institutionally, politically) to respond and correct prior actions? Ethical obligations and legal (financial) liabilities to future generations, people and companies elsewhere? Forums for the expression of public discontent and redress? Mechanisms for “just” compensation? Adaptation Outcomes:Mechanisms for Adaptive Management Democratic ideals vs. reality may well undermine implementation, learning. Managing social discontents.

21. Conclusions: How Strong A Fulcrum? Only as strong as these allow: • Political, social, cultural, economic, scientific context • Institutional context • Interpersonal relationships • Decision-maker aspirations and capacities • Decision support • Availability and feasibility of “solutions” • Monitoring, evaluation, adaptive management options, and mechanisms for social redress

22. Coda: The Ethical Imperative Knowing what I do, there would be no future peace for me if I kept silent. Rachel Carson, 1958

23. Thank you! Contact: smoser@ucar.edu More information: http://www.isse.ucar.edu/moser/ http://www.isse.ucar.edu/moser/california/ http://www.isse.ucar.edu/communication/