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De-Confounding of Relations Between Land-level and Sea-level Change in Northern California Cal-Trans Briefing 2014 Tom Leroy, Jason Patton, & Todd Williams. Jeff Anderson, Ray Weldon, Reed Burgette Mark Hemphill-Haley Whelan Gilkerson.

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slide1

De-Confounding of Relations Between Land-level and Sea-level Change in Northern California

Cal-Trans Briefing 2014

Tom Leroy, Jason Patton, & Todd Williams

Jeff Anderson,

Ray Weldon, Reed Burgette

Mark Hemphill-Haley

Whelan Gilkerson

Cascadia GeoSciences, Northern Hydrology, HSU Geology, U of O Geology, & HBI members

slide2

Humboldt Bay Vertical Reference Group

    • US. Fish and Wildlife Service
    • Northern Hydrology
    • Pacific Watershed Associates
    • Humboldt State University
    • University of Oregon
variables that determine locally observed sea level
Variables that determine locally observed sea level
  • Eustatic (global water volume changes)
  • Tectonic (land-level changes)
  • Sediment Accretion (local sediment deposition)
variables that determine locally observed sea level1
Variables that determine locally observed sea level
  • Eustatic (global water volume changes)
  • Tectonic (land-level changes)
  • Sediment Accretion (local sediment deposition)
slide6

Bathymetry,topography, and primary faults of the Cascadia subduction zone

52Ê52Ê50Ê50Ê48Ê48Ê46Ê46Ê44Ê44Ê42Ê42Ê40Ê40Ê240Ê238Ê236Ê236Ê234Ê234Ê232Ê232Ê

slide8

Interseismic

(between earthquakes)

Coseismic

(during earthquake)

Atwater & Satake, 2009

slide10

Why is this important?

This demonstrates the elastic nature of the crust.

The sense of motion for interseismic and coseismic land level changes are inverted.

slide14

other deformation estimates for Cascadia

Flück, et al.,

1997

Wang, et al., 2003

how can we determine the spatial distribution of vertical land level change
How can we determine the spatial distribution of vertical land level change?
  • Tide gage analysis
  • Historic level survey analysis
slide18

HBV Tide Gage Deployment Locations

  • 2013-2014
    • Mad River Slough
    • Eureka (Chevron Dock)
    • Hookton Slough
slide19

Additional Records

  • 1978-2014
    • NOAA
      • North Spit
  • 2010
    • US ACOE
      • Fields Landing
      • Samoa
slide20

Monthly Mean Sea Level (Station Datum, mm) plotted vs. Time

  • Mad River Slough Relative to CC
    • Mad River Slough subsides relative to Crescent City at 4.2mm/yr.
  • North Spit Relative to CC
    • North Spit subsides relative to Crescent City at 5.4 mm/yr.
  • Hookton Slough Relative to CC
    • Hookton Slough subsides relative to Crescent City at 6.8 mm/yr.

* assumes 2.28 mm/yr SLR

slide21

Historic Leveling,

Humboldt Bay

1931: San Jose – Eureka

1931: Eureka – Grants Pass

1944: Arcata – North Spit

1967: Longvale – Crescent City

1988: Eureka – Redding

1988: Westport – Arcata – North Spit

1992: Garberville – Loleta

2004: State Hwy – Countywide GPS

Source: NGS Integrated Database; compiled by Don Campbell, CalTrans Dist. 1, 2010.

~ 70 control points surveyed from 1931-1992

~ 40 observed either 1944-1967 or 1967-1988

~ 20 observed 1944-1988

slide22

Land level Change

(mm/yr)

* assumes 2.28 mm/yr SLR

-1.18

  • Land level – Tide Gage Misfit
    • Site(mm/yr)
    • CC 0.69 ± 0.38
    • MRS 0.40 ± 0.20
    • NS 0.31 ± 0.36
    • HS 0.10 ± 0.51

-2.38

-3.58

slide23

Future Projects and Objectives:

Campaign Tide Gage – densify network of tide gages in Humboldt Bay to better understand the spatial variation in vertical deformation.

Continuous GPS collocated with tide gages – to continuously tie the tide gage water surface elevation data to the tide gage station datum; to provide independent measure of vertical land level change

Permanent Tide Gage at Hookton Slough – to better model higher order controls on sea level (meteorological, storms, ENSO, etc.)

Repeated Level Surveys Around Humboldt Bay – to better understand the spatial variation in vertical deformation

Geodetic Modeling– build a predictive model for estimates of vertical motion between benchmarks and tide gages

Sediment Coring – to characterize the prehistoric record of Paleodeformation