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NCEP Overview

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NCEP Overview

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  1. NCEP Overview 31st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Boulder, CO October 23, 2006

  2. Overview • NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products • Service Center Perspective • Model Perspective • Multi-model Ensembles • Implications for NCEP • Future • Building Update

  3. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days • Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 • Tropical Storms to Day 5 • Severe Weather to Day 3 SPC AWC SEC Hours Minutes

  4. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week Global Forecast System Days Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Model North American Forecast Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS

  5. Climate Forecast System: First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004 • Climate Test Bed established in 2005, focused on improving the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal

  6. Multi-Model Ensembles: Implications for NCEP • From climate to the mesoscale, arguments are being made for multi-model ensembles • Computer resources do not exist to run all of these model systems internally – even with upcoming 3 fold upgrade of operational computers • A need for partnerships: • SREF – • NCAR (WRF core) run internally at NCEP • NAEFS – • NCEP runs 80 members GFS/day • Canada runs 20 members at CMC/day • Navy plans to run ensemble members at FNMOC • Output sent to UNIDATA for real-time distribution • MME for climate/SI; exploring options • Operational centers? • Research centers? All centers share output

  7. Exploring Options for MME for Operational SI Prediction at NCEP • SAB for Climate Test Bed recommends the use of MME approach • Initial results indicate that inclusion of CFS with DEMETER (3 operational) adds skill to the US/CFS ensemble product stream • NCEP exploring the possibility of an MME with European operational centers

  8. Future • CFS upgrade scheduled for 2010 • Upgraded GFS • Upgraded MOM4 • Continued expansion of CTB activities to improve current CFS and prepare for future versions • Continue the fight for reanalysis required for the upgrade(s) • Continue the effort to enhance computational resource for all of the above • Work for the expansion of climate/weather/water prediction into non-traditional areas (Advanced Study Institute)

  9. Strategic Opportunities • NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction offers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to • Apply Team NOAA approach to address current and future strategic advancements in environmental prediction (e.g., ocean modeling) • Link NOAA research and operations to larger research and academic communities (USWRP; WRF; THORPEX) • Co-locate with UMD interdisciplinary centers – basis for the Advanced Study Institute for Environmental Prediction

  10. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists NCEP Central Operations, Environmental Modeling Center, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Groundbreaking occurred 13 March 2006

  11. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

  12. Appendix

  13. 4-month Lead 1-month Lead 3-month Lead 0-month Lead For NDJ 2005/2006 as the Target; Forecasts From Different Leads 2-month Lead

  14. 4-month Lead 1-month Lead 3-month Lead 0-month Lead For JAS 2006 as the Target; Forecasts From Different Leads 2-month Lead

  15. 4-month Lead 1-month Lead 3-month Lead 0-month Lead For SON 2006 as the Target; Forecasts From Different Leads 2-month Lead