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Uma tarefa difícil – missão impossível?

Uma tarefa difícil – missão impossível?. Antony Mueller UFS. De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura na Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos. Para receber o data show. Website : www.continentaleconomics.com Blog internacional: www.continentaleconomics.com/blog Blog em Português:

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Uma tarefa difícil – missão impossível?

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  1. Uma tarefa difícil – missão impossível?

  2. Antony MuellerUFS De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura na Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos

  3. Para receber o data show • Website: • www.continentaleconomics.com • Blog internacional: • www.continentaleconomics.com/blog • Blog em Português: • www.economianova.blogspot.com • e-mail: • antonymueller@yahoo.com

  4. A herança • Duas guerras sem perspectiva de vitoria • US “soft power” (poder suave) no chão • Crise financeira • Crise econômica • Crise social • Dívida externo • Dívida pública • Dívida pessoal • Indústria de automóvel perto do calote • Setor financeiro em bancarrota

  5. Fim de uma economia ilusória • “For the past several years people thought we had a real economy and we didn’t. We had a bubble. All we did is borrow a trillion dollars from the rest of the world and now we can’t pay the bills.” • Peter Schiff, fund manager and financial analyst

  6. Os desafios • Quebrar a formação de um circulo vicioso entre desemprego e desvalorização dos ativos (imóveis e ações) • Parar a aprofundamento da crise financeira (com pulverização da poupança de aposentaria) • Controlar a explosão da dívida pública • Manter as promessas

  7. Taxa de desemprego

  8. O “plano Obama” • “…we risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further,” … • work out details of an “economic recovery plan” that will be “big enough to meet the challenges we face that I intend to sign soon after taking office” on Jan. 20. • “It will be a two-year, nationwide effort to jumpstart job creation in America and lay the foundation for a strong and growing economy,”… • “We’ll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernizing schools that are failing our children, and building wind farms and solar panels; fuel-efficient cars and the alternative energy technologies that can free us from our dependence on foreign oil and keep our economy competitive in the years ahead.”… • The initiatives will address “this immediate crisis” and represent “long-term investments in our economic future that have been ignored for far too long,” • O planoeconômico de Obama, Novembro 2008

  9. Confrontando a realidade – Os desafios intelectuais de Obama • Maior perigo: cair vítima dos próprios mitos, da propaganda e das ilusões, entre eles: • Confundindo mito e realidade da economia americana • Confundindo mito e realidade da origem da crise financeira • Confundindo mito e realidade do poder Americana • Aplicando falsas teorias

  10. A economia Americana • Um saco vazio?

  11. Poder econômico • Mito: A economia americana é a economia dominante do mundo com um nível altíssimo de produtividade e inovação • Realidade: Como mostra o déficit comercial, a economia americana se tornou mais e mais dependente do exterior durante os últimos 25 anos produzindo uma dívida externa insustentável.

  12. Dependência financeira

  13. Os Estados Unidos – Um país “dependente”

  14. Dívida pública

  15. Uma nação em dívida

  16. Dívida federal em mão de investidores internacionais e externos

  17. Poupança pessoal

  18. Necessidade de uma mudança cultural

  19. Gastos do governo do camarada Bush

  20. Top 5 em PIB • GDP at purchasing power parity 2007 in USD trillion • World 65.6 • EuropeanUnion 14.4 • United States 13.8 • China 7.1 • Japan 4.3 • India 3.0 • Memo: • Brazil 1.8 Rank 11

  21. FMI Quotas Setembro 2008 • Estado Unidos: 17.09 % • Cinco maiores economias da UE: 21.50 % • Japão: 6.13 % • China: 3.72 % • Argentina: 0.97 % • Brasil: 1.40 % • Chile: 0.39 %

  22. Gastos militares • Militaryexpenditures (USD bilhões) • WorldTotal • 1,470 • United States • 711 • People'sRepublicof China • 61 • Brazil • 24

  23. Dimensões do Poder:Gastos militares

  24. Continuidade imperialista?

  25. NationalIntelligenceCouncil Nov. 2008 • The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game. • Dollar will lose its role as the leading reserve currency • The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future. • Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply. • The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East. http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

  26. A tarefa • Da suporte ao processo de mudar a cultura Americana de uma de dívida e da “gratificação instantânea” para uma cultura de responsabilidade, poupança, e sacrifício • Evitar confrontação com China, mas levar o país ao bordo para confrontar os problemas globais • Aceitar o papel reduzido dos poderes “norte Atlântico” em gerenciar a economia global e fortalecer o grupo 20 (G 20) • Resistir o protecionismo

  27. Continuidade dos donos do poder • “Naturally, people are making lists of what the new administration should do to begin to reverse the decades-long trends toward rising inequality, unrestrained corporate plunder, ecological disaster, military adventurism and constricted democracy. But if naming our favored policies is the main thing we do, we are headed for a terrible letdown. Let's face it: BarackObama is not a visionary or even a movement leader. He became the nominee of the Democratic Party, and then went on to win the general election, because he is a skillful politician. That means he will calculate whom he has to conciliate and whom he can ignore in realms dominated by big-money contributors from Wall Street, powerful business lobbyists and a Congress that includes conservative Blue Dog and Wall Street-oriented Democrats. “ • Frances Fox Piven, in The Nation, November 2008

  28. Military-industrialcomplex • “The signs are amassing that BarackObama put a political con job over on the American people. He is now daily buying into the entrenched military-industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned Americans about in his farewell address.” • Ralph Nader

  29. At a recent Reuters Global Finance Summit former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead was interviewed. He was also Ronald Reagan's Deputy Secretary of State and a former chairman of the N.Y. Fed. He says America's problems will take years and will burn trillions. He sees "nothing but large increases in the deficit ... I think it would be worse than the depression. ... Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody's and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds." It'll get worse because "the public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs, all very costly and all done by the government." Reuters concludes: "Whitehead said he is speaking out on this topic because he is concerned no lawmakers are against these new spending programs and none will stand up and call for higher taxes. 'I just want to get people thinking about this, and to realize this is a road to disaster,' said Whitehead. 'I've always been a positive person and optimistic, but I don't see a solution here.'"

  30. As previsões de Gerald Celente:Os Estados Unidos vai se tornar numa nação "undeveloped" ("dedesenvolvida")com- taxrevolt (rebelião contra imposts)- job marches (demonstrações trabalhistas- foodriots (rebelião para comida)- squatterrevolt (rebelião de pessoas sem moradia)Gerald Celente prevê um período de tempo pior que a grande depressão.Em vez de "wecan" o novo governo vai realisar que "wecan't".Os Estados Unidos vai entrar num declínio econômico geral.Até hoje os Estados Unidos ainda não estão preparado para este choque e continuam estar em um estado de negação, incluindo negar que já estamos numa forte recessão.Fim do da festa natal como evento de consumo eszessivo.

  31. Military-industrialcomplex • The signs are amassing that BarackObama put a political con job over on the American people. • He is now daily buying into the entrenched military-industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned Americans about in his farewell address.” • Ralph Nader

  32. A continuidade do poder • “Naturally, people are making lists of what the new administration should do to begin to reverse the decades-long trends toward rising inequality, unrestrained corporate plunder, ecological disaster, military adventurism and constricted democracy. But if naming our favored policies is the main thing we do, we are headed for a terrible letdown. • Let's face it: BarackObama is not a visionary or even a movement leader. He became the nominee of the Democratic Party, and then went on to win the general election, because he is a skillful politician. That means he will calculate whom he has to conciliate and whom he can ignore in realms dominated by big-money contributors from Wall Street, powerful business lobbyists and a Congress …“ • Frances Fox Piven, in The Nation, November 2008

  33. Quem é ela?

  34. Obama’smother • Her parents, Madelyn Payne and Stanley Dunham, met in Wichita, Kansas, and married on May 5, 1940.[10] She had English, Irish, German, and Cherokee heritage from her parents. She was a distant cousin of Vice President Dick Cheney, George Bush, and Harry Truman.[11]

  35. Quem é Obama?

  36. Obama • In Obama's case, the US president-elect may be able to trace part of his European roots back to a man by the name of Christian Gutknecht, who emigrated from the village of Bischwiller in what is today the French region of Alsace, but at the time was a Bavarian duchy. • http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/front/Obama_could_boost_genealogy_craze.html?siteSect=105&sid=10009597&rss=true&ty=st

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