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HAF: An Operational, Event-driven Solar Wind Forecast Model

HAF: An Operational, Event-driven Solar Wind Forecast Model. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Murray Dryer murray.dryer@noaa.gov. 1. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Goal: Improve Space Weather Forecasting. 100%. Accuracy. 0%. 0. Forecast Lead Time. 2.

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HAF: An Operational, Event-driven Solar Wind Forecast Model

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  1. HAF: An Operational,Event-driven Solar Wind Forecast Model Exploration Physics International, Inc. Murray Dryer murray.dryer@noaa.gov 1

  2. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Goal: Improve Space Weather Forecasting 100% Accuracy 0% 0 Forecast Lead Time 2

  3. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Geomagnetic Storm Prediction System CoronalModel v, n, BIMF Solar WindModel Near Earth Models Event Proxies 3

  4. Exploration Physics International, Inc. HAF Model Inputs: Ambient Solar Wind • Steady State: • Source surface (2.5 Rs) • B, v synoptic maps • Maps from: • SEC (Arge & Pizzo) • Solar observatories (NSO, MWO, WSO) VSS = V0 + V1- 4

  5. Exploration Physics International, Inc. HAF Model Inputs: Solar Events 5

  6. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Study • NOAA/SEC, EXPI, GI/UAF • February 1997 - present • Interplanetary shock arrival time (SAT) at Earth • Ensemble of three models (HAF, ISPM, STOA) • Benchmark forecast skill 6

  7. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Study 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 7

  8. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “April Fools Day” 2001 Events Events FF#Start date/timeVsLocationComment 254 20010327 1632 677 N22 E33 M2.2/1N 255* 20010328 1240 1000* N18 E02 M4.3/SF 256 20010329 1004 1300 N16 W12 X1.7/1N 257* 20010330 1559 1850 S10 W90* Blowout? 258* 20010330 1620 1600 S10 E115? Blowout? Forecast #256 issued 29 March 2001, 2055 UT HAFv.2: Shock will overtake the two previous interplanetary ICMEs, and the combined structure's shock will arrive at 1800 UT, 30 March 2001. SSI = 1.0, and delta(dynamic pressure) = 13.2 nPa. 8

  9. Speed Density Log(P/P) Dynamic pressure Exploration Physics International, Inc. “FF” #255-258, issuedMar. 28-30, 2001 HAF ModelPrediction 3/28/01 4/05/01 9

  10. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “April Fools Day” 2001 Event 10

  11. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Bastille Day” 2000 Event “Fearless Forecast” issued at 20:31 UT on July 14, 2000: “Strong shock will arrive at 15 UT on July 15, 2000.” [Dryer et al.,Solar Phys., 2001]. 11

  12. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Metrics Contingency Table 12

  13. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Metrics Feb. 1997 - Oct. 2000 173 events, 68 observed shocks • Success rate > 50 % • False alarm rate ~ 50% • Hit/Miss Ratio STOA best for strong shocks • HAF best for medium, weak shocks • Heidke skill score ~ .15 - .20 • RMS error T (SATPRED - SATOBS) ~ 11 - 12 hours 13

  14. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Solar Cycle 23 - Lessons Learned • CIRs produce shocks. Dec. 25, 1998, 20 UT 14

  15. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Solar Cycle 23 - Lessons Learned • Initial shock speed is the most important input to the SAT prediction. • SAT forecast skill is best near Central Meridian. • SAT forecast skill is worst for limb events • because Metric Type II speeds are too low. 15

  16. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Future of Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Solar Wind Predictions • Better Customer Collaboration: • Specify Needs • Improved Forecast Skill: • Assimilate Data • Predict Bz + = • Increased Customer Support: • Make Advanced Operational Decisions 16

  17. Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Web Site http://gse.gi.alaska.edu Email: gfry@expi.com 17

  18. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Metric Type II Speed

  19. Exploration Physics International, Inc. Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF)Solar Wind Model • Provides realistic background and event-driven solar wind conditions at L1 and elsewhere. • Takes in solar observations and event reports. • Uses “modified kinematic” approach to track solar wind fluid parcels. • Predicts interplanetary shocks in the global heliosphere. • Drives downstream empirical and first-principle space weather models.

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