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Stork Delivered Babies: Myth or Reality?

This study explores the age-old belief that storks bring newborns by analyzing data from various sources dating back to the 1930s. The correlation between stork population, human births, and town growth in Oldenburg raises questions about causation and lurking variables. Through an examination of confounding factors, such as smoking during pregnancy and birth weights, we delve into the intriguing relationship between storks and babies. Join us in unraveling the mystery of where babies truly come from.

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Stork Delivered Babies: Myth or Reality?

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  1. Where do babies come from? As is well known, storks bring newborns. Here’s my evidence: Data adapted by Box, Hunter, and Hunter from G. Fischer, OrnithologischeMonatsberichte, vol. 44, no. 2, Jahrgang, 1936, Berlin and vol. 48, No. 1, Jahrgang, 1940, Berlin, and StatistichesJahrbuchDeutscherGemeinden, 27-33, Jahrgang, 1932-1938.

  2. Where do babies come from? As is well known, storks bring newborns. Here’s my evidence: Data adapted by Box, Hunter, and Hunter from G. Fischer, OrnithologischeMonatsberichte, vol. 44, no. 2, Jahrgang, 1936, Berlin and vol. 48, No. 1, Jahrgang, 1940, Berlin, and StatistichesJahrbuchDeutscherGemeinden, 27-33, Jahrgang, 1932-1938. The correlation is 0.94.

  3. Does correlation = causation? • The population of Oldenburg grew steadily in the 1930’s. • As the population increased, there was more building construction, providing more nesting places for storks. • As the population increased, there were more people to have babies.

  4. Does correlation = causation? • The population of Oldenburg grew steadily in the 1930’s. • As the population increased, there was more building construction, providing more nesting places for storks. • As the population increased, there were more people to have babies.

  5. Is population a lurking variable?

  6. Example of confounding: Smoking in pregnancy is associated with lower birth weights.

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