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Comprehensive Colorado Wildfire Outlook Proposal

This white paper by John Knaff discusses the pieces of FIRE dynamics impacted by weather and climate conditions. SPC integrates fire dynamics with weather and climate factors to address concerns about dry thunderstorms and lightning. USFS provides a tool for 7-day forecasts based on NDFD data.

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Comprehensive Colorado Wildfire Outlook Proposal

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  1. White Paper: Comprehensive GOES-R Wildfire Outlooks John Knaff

  2. The Pieces FIRE Dynamics Weather/Climate Conditions Wind Relative Humidity Temperatures Duration Vertical Profiles/Soundings

  3. The Pieces FIRE Dynamics Weather/Climate Conditions SPC takes Fire Dynamics and applies weather/climate conditions. Dry thunderstorms and lighting a great concern USFS has a point tool based on the NDFD and produces 7-day forecasts based on that information. • USFS (www.wfas.net) • Fuel Type • Fuel Conditions • Lightning efficiency • Haines (1988) index • Vegetation Health (Greenness and Temperature)information from AVHRR/GOES-R

  4. FUEL Fuel Types National Land Cover Database

  5. Fire Probability USFS USGS

  6. Fire Probability NESDIS SPC

  7. Other Factors Lightning ignition Static Stability

  8. Where We May Contribute (1) GOES-R/AVHRR Vegetation Health GLM (proxy lightning)

  9. Where We May Contribute (2) Model Fields/ Synthetic Imagery Satellite/lightning Early detection Lightning strikes Hot spots smoke Resource Deployment Manpower deployment/management Aircraft planning Evacuations • Where/When convection occurs in the model • Wind, Temperature, RH forecasts • Conditional forecast products • Dry thunderstorm potential • Lightning • Down draft • Fire laydown/takeoff timing

  10. Proposal Creation of a Comprehensive Colorado Wildfire Outlook • Combine • Fuel type • Fuel vegetation health conditions (GOES-R/AVHRR) • Greenness • Hotness • Lightning ignition potential • Meteorological conditions (Model) • Wind • RH • Stability • Lightning Occurrence/Convective Forecasts • Produce • Weekly resource guidance (reduced allocation, normal allocation, increased allocation) • where to put resources in the coming week • 0-48 hour outlook for new wildfire starts (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) • New wildfire nowcast (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) – places to monitor for new starts • Fire growth danger – if a fire develops how rapidly could it grow

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