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‘Predicting’ Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ?

‘Predicting’ Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ?. Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager. Making ‘Predictions’. How CEM ‘Predictions’ are made…. Subject X. A* / A. C. 0 2 4 6 8. Regression Line – specific to each subject or Trend Line or Line of Best Fit. Physics. Maths.

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‘Predicting’ Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ?

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  1. ‘Predicting’ Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ? Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager

  2. Making ‘Predictions’

  3. . How CEM ‘Predictions’ are made… Subject X A* / A C 0 2 4 6 8 Regression Line – specific to each subject or Trend Line orLine of Best Fit

  4. Physics Maths Psychology Sociology Latin Photography English Lit Some Subjects are More Equal than Others…. A B >1 grade Grade C D E C B A A* Average GCSE Using a trend line specific to each subject / qualification is of critical importance

  5. However…. Subject X ? Do we really know this ? GCSE or … ?

  6. Measuring Ability

  7. Measuring Ability Choice of Baseline • Average GCSE Score • CABT (Computer Adaptive Baseline Test) Why 2 Baselines ?

  8. Why 2 Baselines ? • Average GCSE correlates very well to A-level / IB etc, but by itself is not sufficient…. • What is a GCSE ? • Students without GCSE ? • Years out between GCSE & A-level ? • Reliability of GCSE ? • Prior Value-Added ?

  9. Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6 The Effect of Prior Value Added Beyond Expectation +ve Value-Added In line with Expectation 0 Value-Added Below Expectation -ve Value-Added Do these 3 students all have the same ability ?

  10. Appropriate Baseline • Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with differing value-added have the same ability ? • How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus can you maximise their potential ? • Has a student got v.good GCSE scores through the school effort rather than their ability alone ? • How will this affect expectation of attainment in the Sixth Form ? • Can you add value at every Key Stage ? Baseline testing provides a measure of ability that (to a large extent) is independent of the effect of prior treatment.

  11. Computer Adaptive Baseline Test (CABT) • Test performed online – results automatically transmitted to CEM. • Minimal installation / setup required - if any. • Adaptive – difficulty of questions changes in relation to ability of student. • Efficient – no time wasted answering questions that are far too easy or difficult. • Wider range of ability • Less stressful on students – more enjoyable experience than paper test. • Less demanding invigilation. • Test designed to be completed in 1 hour or less. • No materials to courier In 2010 / 2011 over 68,000 students sat this test in Alis To try it out… www.intuproject.org/demos

  12. X         

  13. Baseline & Predictive Feedback

  14. Intake Profiles

  15. Full Alis 2009 Demo School (999) Banana, Brian Banana, Brian IPR... Studying : Maths Physics Chemistry Biology ?

  16. Prediction Reports Predictions Based on Baseline Test Predictions Based on GCSE Probability of achieving each grade Expected Grade

  17. Which predicted grades are the most appropriate for this student ?

  18. Predictions Based on GCSE (7.0) B B C B B Predictions Based on Test (106) C B D B C What is this Student’s ability ? What Grades should we expect her to get ? If she gets C’s instead of B’s, is this a problem ?

  19. Predictive Feedback Real Life Examples

  20. Student 1

  21. Student 2

  22. Student 2 - IPR

  23. Student 3

  24. Student 3 - IPR

  25. Impact of Baseline Choice on VA Scores

  26. GCSE as Baseline Same School - Spot the Difference ? Test as Baseline

  27. GCSE as Baseline Test as Baseline

  28. A2 Biology GCSE as Baseline Test as Baseline

  29. A2 Biology Student B GCSE as Baseline Student A Student B Test as Baseline Student A

  30. A2 Biology Student A Student B How well did these students perform ?

  31. Dr Robert Clark Alis Project Manager robert.clark@cem.dur.ac.uk 0191 33 44 193

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