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Solar Power Potential with PRT

Solar Power Potential with PRT. Ron Swenson ATRA Santa Cruz 2006 November 18.

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Solar Power Potential with PRT

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  1. Solar Power Potential with PRT Ron Swenson ATRA Santa Cruz 2006 November 18

  2. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... The Elevator Speech Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric. • Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle • Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway • GM’s Yellow Gas Cap • Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol. Only solar energy will do the job. Solar is sufficient to power high capacity PRT -- 100 percent -- using only the system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  3. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... A Little Personal History If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  4. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... Objective To demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute, and is in fact the only viable transport alternative. Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options… • Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels. • Global Warming will force out coal and uranium. • Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale. • Social Equity will prevail against war for oil. Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers… • Politics: Energy Independence • Economics: Quick Payback • Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) • Environment: Carbon Divestment If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  5. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: Global Warming • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  6. Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.

  7. Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries Tons CO2 per person Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars

  8. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 Context: Peak Oil If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

  9. We know the peak is coming … but what can we do about it? Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?

  10. American Consumers Do Understand

  11. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 Context: BioFuels • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832...

  12. Net Production of Biomass in the USA www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

  13. The All-New DonCar! www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

  14. There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. • Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35 • Specific gravity of Ag = 10.50 Ag Ag

  15. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 Context: Social Equity If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

  16. Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion. www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

  17. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequence of Delayed Investment Net Energy Production begin investment before decline Begin investment during decline www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

  18. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... Energy Independence If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  19. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 Non-Oil, Power Exporting … • Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..) • Cities… (Santa Cruz?) • Colleges… (UCSC?) • Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day) • Citizens… (You and I?) But “energy independence” is an elusive goal. To get a clue, let’s go back to the future… • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832...

  20. Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

  21. Global Solar Energy Balance www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

  22. 120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

  23. Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

  24. PV Oil PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr Peak +5 +10 +15 www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday

  25. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … The Solution: Solar PRT • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  26. Solar on Rail www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran

  27. SkyTran Solar Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

  28. jPod Solar www.jPods.com

  29. Similar Solar Systems Exist

  30. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Economics • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  31. Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile

  32. Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel

  33. Calculate Passengers per Day www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

  34. Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

  35. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Science • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 • not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

  36. Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … • Pennsylvania? • Saudi Arabia? • Off-shore? Plus … • Ravaged land/oceans • Greenhouse gases • Water contamination And it’s getting worse… EROI = 10±

  37. Thermodynamics of PV • EROI: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped And it’s getting better… EROI = 1030 ~ electric

  38. Environment

  39. Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

  40. Back to solid fuels? A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year. How much more would a tractor need?

  41. Lessons from History! The original buggy whip protest!

  42. Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… … It is ephemeral, like solar power. Can you lift it? See it? Touch it? A match made in heaven.

  43. The Electric Rail

  44. Solar PRT www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

  45. Solarevolution™ More at www.SolarEvolution.com

  46. Additional Information More about Global ConditionsMore about California ConditionsMore about Santa Cruz ConditionsMore about PRTMore HistoryMore about EthanolMore about TeraWatts

  47. More about Global Conditions: Peak Oil

  48. Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth

  49. Consumption by Sector, USA

  50. Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures

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