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Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Decision Tables. Agenda. Video: Building Green How to Choose: “The decision ladder” Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables +/- 1-10 Calculations. The Decision Ladder.

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Presentation Transcript
  • Video: Building Green
  • How to Choose: “The decision ladder”
  • Prioritized Lists
  • Screening
  • Fact and Value Tables
  • Decision Tables
    • +/-
    • 1-10
    • Calculations
the decision ladder
The Decision Ladder
  • Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!
the decision ladder1
The Decision Ladder
  • Decision Tree
  • 1-10 Decision Table
  • +/- Decision Table
  • Screening
  • Prioritized List
prioritized lists
Prioritized Lists
  • Bad decisions:
    • Single alternative
    • No Devil’s advocate (groupthink)
    • Unanimous adoption of bad idea
prioritized lists1
Prioritized Lists
  • Build a robust list of alternatives!
    • ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept)
    • + go to the coast to hunt for shells (reject)
    • - drive smelly grandma to airport (accept)
    • --bathe grandma (reject)
ways to prioritize
Ways to Prioritize
  • Intuition vs. Analysis
  • Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives
    • One usually feels best, so we choose
  • Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves
  • If the decision is important, use analysis!
after analysis is complete
After Analysis is complete…
  • Ask yourself (using intuition):
    • “Does this really make sense?”
    • “Does it seem right?”
  • If no…
    • Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives, weights)
    • Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the truth)
    • Both are wrong
errors in intuition
Errors in intuition
  • World is flat
  • Highly streamlined shapes best for earth re-entry
  • Odds 2 people will have same birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30)
  • Galileo and Tower of Pisa
  • Others?
choosing among alternatives
Choosing among alternatives
  • Either:
    • Choose alternative giving you the most ammo for justifying the choice to others
    • Choose based on good outcomes or consequences
    • Beware of “rule of thumb” justifications
      • They can be contradictory
        • “2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth”
explain to me
Explain to me?
  • “When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, it’s time to reef your topsails then”
if rules of thumb are in conflict
If rules of thumb are in conflict:
  • Consider outcomes or consequences
  • A lot like panning for gold
  • Consider 1 attribute at a time and reject
    • TV purchase : Store first, then warranty, then…
    • Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon
    • Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo
problem with screening
Problem with screening
  • You may have screened something really good out!
  • FIX: Screen the most important value first
    • If doubt about keeping an alternative, keep it!
    • This way mistakes will not be huge
  • TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound
very high importance screening example
Very high importance screening example
  • Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken Bones
decision tables
Decision Tables
  • Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives
  • Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence
  • Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad
fact tables assembling beliefs
Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Creative Alternative???

fact tables assembling beliefs1
Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Creative Alternative???

about dominance
About dominance
  • We hope to find it, but caution!
    • May indicate superior alternative
      • Also irrationality/extremes
1 10 value tables rwam
1-10 value tables: RWAM!
  • Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse people)
    • Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable but may not be in your range
  • Weight
    • Use magic wishes
  • Multiply Down
  • Add Across
relative importance
Relative Importance
  • Can help to think about relative:
    • Magnitude
    • Duration
    • Probability
    • Number of people impacted
  • Bumper sticker slogans
  • Written sentences