Decision Tables

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# Decision Tables - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Decision Tables. Agenda. Video: Building Green How to Choose: “The decision ladder” Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables +/- 1-10 Calculations. The Decision Ladder.

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## PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Decision Tables' - hetal

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Presentation Transcript
Psychology of Personal Decision-Making

### Decision Tables

Agenda
• Video: Building Green
• How to Choose: “The decision ladder”
• Prioritized Lists
• Screening
• Fact and Value Tables
• Decision Tables
• +/-
• 1-10
• Calculations
• Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!
• Decision Tree
• 1-10 Decision Table
• +/- Decision Table
• Screening
• Prioritized List
Prioritized Lists
• Single alternative
Prioritized Lists
• Build a robust list of alternatives!
• ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept)
• + go to the coast to hunt for shells (reject)
• - drive smelly grandma to airport (accept)
• --bathe grandma (reject)
Ways to Prioritize
• Intuition vs. Analysis
• Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives
• One usually feels best, so we choose
• Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves
• If the decision is important, use analysis!
After Analysis is complete…
• “Does this really make sense?”
• “Does it seem right?”
• If no…
• Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives, weights)
• Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the truth)
• Both are wrong
Errors in intuition
• World is flat
• Highly streamlined shapes best for earth re-entry
• Odds 2 people will have same birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30)
• Galileo and Tower of Pisa
• Others?
Choosing among alternatives
• Either:
• Choose alternative giving you the most ammo for justifying the choice to others
• Choose based on good outcomes or consequences
• Beware of “rule of thumb” justifications
• “2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth”
Explain to me?
• “When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, it’s time to reef your topsails then”
If rules of thumb are in conflict:
• Consider outcomes or consequences
Screening
• A lot like panning for gold
• Consider 1 attribute at a time and reject
• TV purchase : Store first, then warranty, then…
• Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon
• Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo
Problem with screening
• You may have screened something really good out!
• FIX: Screen the most important value first
• If doubt about keeping an alternative, keep it!
• This way mistakes will not be huge
• TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound
Very high importance screening example
• Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken Bones
Decision Tables
• Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives
• Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence
• Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad
Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Creative Alternative???

Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Creative Alternative???

• We hope to find it, but caution!
• May indicate superior alternative
• Also irrationality/extremes
1-10 value tables: RWAM!
• Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse people)
• Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable but may not be in your range
• Weight
• Use magic wishes
• Multiply Down
Relative Importance
• Can help to think about relative:
• Magnitude
• Duration
• Probability
• Number of people impacted
Commitment
• Bumper sticker slogans
• Written sentences