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Theory and Hands On: Habitat Risk Assessment. Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Gregg Verutes. Goals for this session. Gain an understanding of science behind the model Understand the data you need to run the model and practice running it yourself

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Theory and Hands On: Habitat Risk Assessment


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slide1

Theory and Hands On: Habitat Risk Assessment

Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Gregg Verutes

goals for this session
Goals for this session
  • Gain an understanding of science behind the model
  • Understand the data you need to run the model and practice running it yourself
  • Share examples of how the model can be used to meet management and conservation goals
habitats provide services
Habitats provide services

Habitat for fisheries Recreational opportunities Storm protection

slide6

Habitat

Risk

Scenarios

Services

questions the model can answer
Questions the model can answer
  • Which habitats are most at risk and where?
  • What types of management options may be useful for reducing risk?
  • Where may human activities create trade-offs among environmental services by posing risk high enough to compromise habitat structure and function?
final output
Final output
  • habitat risk
  • ecosystem risk
related models and approaches
Related models and approaches

Consequence

HIGH RISK

  • Cumulative impact mapping (Halpern et al 2008)
  • InVEST Habitat Quality model
  • Risk assessment literature

Exposure

  • Human health, safety engineering, oil, military, aerospace
  • Fisheries science
what do we mean by risk
What do we mean by risk?

Should I walk over the ice to my car?

  • Where is the ice in relation to my car and me?
  • Has the ground been sanded?
  • Is the ice just thin and patchy or more dangerous?
  • If I fall, how bad will my injury be?
  • Am I young and resilient or old? Will I break an arm or leg?
  • Am I wearing high heels or snow boots?
criteria
Criteria

Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. 2007

criteria ratings
Criteria Ratings

Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. XXX

Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al 2007

criteria ratings1
Criteria Ratings
  • Weighted average
  • data quality
  • importance
  • Weighted average
  • data quality
  • importance
outputs risk maps where is risk highest
Outputs – Risk mapsWhere is risk highest?
  • cumulative
  • habitat risk
  • ecosystem risk
outputs risk hotspots where may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future
Outputs - Risk hotspotsWhere may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future?

RISK TOCORALS

RISK TOMANGROVES

RISK TOSEAGRASS

Habitat Risk Assessment

Low

Medium

High

outputs risk plots strategies for reducing risk
Outputs – Risk plotsStrategies for reducing risk

Intensive intervention:

if this area overlaps with high benefits, then limit damaging uses and restore here

Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc.

HIGH RISK

Consequence

(endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc)

Develop

uses here

Low intensity intervention

LOW RISK

EXPOSURE

(exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc)

applications
Applications
  • Belize – coastal zone management plan
  • WCVI – site activities, trade-offs among services
coastal zone management plan for belize
Coastal zone management plan for Belize

Consequence

HIGH RISK

Stakeholder, local scientists

and government officials

EXPOSURE

Fisheries

Coastal protection

Tourism opportunities

  • Draft zoning plans
  • current uses
  • future uses
  • stakeholder engagement
  • reports
  • Risk to habitats
  • coral
  • mangroves
  • seagrass
slide20

Outputs - Risk hotspotsWhere may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future?

High

RiskArea

(km2)

98.70

6.44

56.10

RISK TOSEAGRASS

Habitat Risk Assessment

Low

Medium

High

slide21

Crop Pollination

Water Purification

Marine Water Quality

Aquaculture

Renewable Energy

Managed Timber Production

Reservoir Hydropower Production

Habitat Risk Assessment; Biodiversity

Coastal Vulnerability

AestheticQuality

Sediment Retention

Groundwater Recharge

Coastal Protection

Recreation

InVEST Models & Linkages

Agricultural Production

Flood Risk Mitigation

Fisheries (including recreational)

Overlap Analysis

Carbon Storage&

Sequestration

(Blue Carbon)

Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting service

Optional model linkage, no sequencing

Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service

Required/optional model linkage, sequencing needed

Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service

Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies service

Marine model: Tier 0

Model coming soon!

data requirements
Data requirements
  • Shapefiles for all habitats
  • Shapefiles for all stressors
  • Criteria rating table
slide25

You have a risk map! Now what?

Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats)

slide26

1.

2.

3.

Which stressors pose the greatest risk?

Where are the risk hotspots?

Where will there be trade-offs among activities?

slide27

1.

2.

3.

Which stressors pose the greatest risk?

Where are the risk hotspots?

Where will there be trade-offs among activities?

slide28

Sketch out possible futures

New resort

Eelgrass restoration

New clearcuts

New shellfish tenures

Eelgrass restoration

Recreation and tourism

Forestry

Shellfish harvest

slide29

Shellfish harvest, tourism

Habitat extent

Effects on other services that depend on healthy habitats?

slide30

Trade-offs among services

Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats)

slide32

Now you know where the risk hotspots are, and which stressors are driving them…how can you prioritize your management?

slide33

Intensive intervention: limit damaging uses and restore here, esp. if overlap with important benefits

Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc.

CONSEQUENCE

(endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc)

Develop uses here

LOW RISK

Low intensity intervention

EXPOSURE

(exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc)

slide34

Space matters: reduce incompatibilities by shifting activities in space

Restore eelgrass in high risk, high benefit locations

Move shellfish tenures away from population centers

slide39

Take-away messages

  • InVEST HRA can:
  • Screen the risk of current and future stressors.
  • Prioritize management where it’s most needed and effective.
  • Identify trade-offs among ecosystem services.
future directions
Future directions
  • Ability to modify criteria
  • Functionality to calculate habitat connectivity
  • Spatial variation in criteria – esp. intensity, management effectiveness
  • Expand sample data
  • Other ideas?
slide43

Acknowledgements

Marine Team

Greg Guannel, Anne Guerry, Mary Ruckelshaus, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Spencer Wood