UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, 14-16 April 2010

1. UNECE Task Force on the analysisof international migration estimates using different length of stay definitionsProgress report UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration StatisticsGeneva, 14-16 April 2010

2. Overview • Objectives of the Task Force • Data & metadata collected • Comparative analysis • Discussion of results • Conclusion and discussion

3. Issues raised at previous meetings • Countries have different residency rules • Definitions and availability of data on short-term migration Impact on comparability of international migration estimates

4. The definition problem UN recommended definition: Long-term migrant = person who changes his/her country of usual residence for more than 12 months • Inconsistencies in definitions used across UNECE region • Recent increase in short-term migration • What is the impact of the use of different definitions on the estimation of international migration flows ?

5. Task Force • United Kingdom – Jonathan Smith (chair) • Austria – Stephan Marik-Lebeck • Netherlands – Han Nicolaas • Norway – Kare Vassenden • Slovenia – Janja Povhe • Switzerland – Marcel Heiniger

7. Defining Migration • Broader definition covers more moves larger migration estimates • Alternative definitions considered: • > 1 month • > 3 months • > 6 months • > 12 months

9. Key points • Broader length of stay definition results in larger migration estimates in all countries • England & Wales: largest difference between ‘longer than 1 month’ and ‘longer than 3 months’ • Netherlands: very short-term migrants (staying for less than 4 months) are not registered

11. Key points • England & Wales: largest proportion of very short-term moves (1-3 months) • Netherlands, Austria, and Switzerland: largest proportion of long-term moves (longer than 12 months) • Slovenia: different pattern – underestimation of long-term migration (data based on intentions to stay in the country)

12. Expected vs. actual length of stay • Trade-off between timeliness and accuracy • Time lag when interviewing individuals on departure or waiting until they have been resident for 12 months • Sample port survey: not possible to collect information retrospectively on individuals who never depart • Uncertainty may be particularly acute with short-term moves (less than 12 months)

14. Immigration vs. emigration • Emigration is generally more difficult to estimate than immigration • England & Wales: passengers are sampled on entry and departure • Switzerland: underestimation of emigration due to non-deregistration on departure • Netherlands: administrative corrections made

15. Conclusion • Broader definitions of migration result in larger migration estimates • Impact of using broader definitions varies across countries considered • Common issues identified with collection methods used - relevant to all migration data but more acute with shorter moves

16. Aims of the Task Force • Assess impact on international migration estimates when using different length of stay thresholds • Assess how well different data sources can be used to measure migration using a range of definitions • Assess availability and accuracy of short-term migration data

17. Discussion • Relevance of this study to other countries • Further analysis: • emigration data and implications on net migration • additional information collected: reason for visit, age and sex) • year on year fluctuations • Further investigation into data collection methods – implications for countries developing or refining their systems