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More advanced techniques. & A quick look at POLS 603. Simultaneous Equations. There are times when we are unsure of causation Consider the following hypotheses Presidents use military force intentionally to boost their popularity

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more advanced techniques

More advanced techniques

&

A quick look at POLS 603

simultaneous equations
Simultaneous Equations
  • There are times when we are unsure of causation
    • Consider the following hypotheses
      • Presidents use military force intentionally to boost their popularity
      • When popularity is high, presidents are les restrained in their decisions to use force
    • Does use of force cause changes in popularity, or do changes in popularity cause presidents to elect the use of force?
a model of presidential popularity
A Model of Presidential Popularity
  • So:
  • Note that since Use of Force is related to ut, and Popularity is related to et, there are correlated errors.
  • We sometimes refer to this as an endogeneity problem.
variable types
Variable types
  • This leads us to classify the variables in a model as one of three types:
    • Endogenous variables – those that are determined within the model structure. The dependent variable is endogenous.
    • Exogenous variables – those that are determined outside the model. The independent variables are exogenous.
    • Lagged endogenous variables, which are often treated as exogenous variables due to their prior causation.
simultaneous causation
Simultaneous Causation
  • Because of our prior hypotheses, we can infer that Presidential Popularity and the decision to use Military Force cause each other.
    • They are simultaneously determined.
    • For a sociologist, this is a non-recursive model.
conditions to estimate simultaneous models
Conditions to estimate Simultaneous models
  • In order to estimate such a model, we have to satisfy certain conditions, which we call Identification:
    • Order Condition: In order for an equation to be identified, it must exclude at least M-1 variables.
      • Just Identified
      • Over identified
    • Rank Condition: An equation is identified if and only if at least one non-zero determinant of order (M-1)(M-1) can be constructed from the coefficients of the variables excluded from that equation.
methods of estimation
Methods of estimation
  • 2 Stage Least Squares (2SLS)
  • 3SLS
  • FIML
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Uses
  • Macroeconomic models of the economy.
  • Sometimes, thousands of equations.
pols 603
POLS 603
  • Easier course than 602
    • Readings harder in that they are more complex models, with more complex math
    • Expectations about math are less
    • Requirements
      • Take home final with general comp style questions
      • Paper using 1 advanced method
topics for 603
Topics for 603
  • Matrix Algebra
  • Time Series
    • Univariate
    • Multivariate
    • Polled Cross sectional time series
    • Vector Autoregression
    • Others
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Event History analysis

    • Duration
    • Survival
  • Count Models
  • Social Network Analysis
  • Bootstrapping
  • Computational Models (AI)