Safety Risk Management Tools  EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation

1. Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation Presented byDanny HoSafety & Security Div.EVA Air CorporationAug 30, 2013

2. Philosophy on Safety Risk Management • Predictive thinking, proactive implementation and reactive response. • Comprehensive, effective, feasible and sustainable. • Effective safety management requires the ability to have the right system to collect and analyze the right information at the right time.

3. Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation-Traditional Practice Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM)+Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)

4. Real Time Monitoring: ACMS & AHM FSD MCD

7. 90 80 70 50 40 30 Post Flight Analysis WGBBS Daily Trend Analysis Hazard Identification & Risk Management FDM/Aerobytes (QAR) FlightData Animation DFDR A/CPerformance Analysis

8. Quarterly Report Annual Report Trend Analysis Report Training Improvement & Procedure Modification FDM/FOQA Event Review Event Review Meeting Flight Data Alert Event Daily Report FDM Statistics/Data base Detect Event

9. Before the flight! Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis,what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation ?

10. Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the Flight Operation Before the flight During the flight After the flight FORAS ACMS/AHM FOQA/FDM

11. FORASFlight Operations Risk Assessment System • FORAS is a system which designed to capture risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft functionality and sector threats, and allow risk mitigation efforts could be deployed before the flight.

12. Flight Operation Risk • Newly check out Captain and F/O flying together • Fatigued crew with MRT • Non precision approach or ILS out of service • Strong cross wind • Low visibility with rain or snow • Thrust Reverser INOP • RWY is not grooved with percipitation • The complexity of approach procedure& runway configuration • Operating crew never operating into this airport before …

13. Project Background FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee Think Tank of FSF Sponsored by : NASA Prototype Developed by : Dr. Michael Hadjimichel FORAS Development EVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel

14. System Introduction FORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in flight operations. Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and aircraft’s status etc. A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure. A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool. Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety. Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk mitigation to ensure a safe operation.

15. CRTS FIS SMIS NOTAM Weather System 2. System Architecture CRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking System FIS: Flight Information System SMIS: Safety Management Information System FORAS Fuzzyinference engine EVADatabase FORAS Models FORAS CPIengine

16. FORAS • Flight Operations Risk Assessment System DRV : Departure Risk Value ALRV : Approach & Landing Risk Value DRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.

17. Model structure DRV / ALRV • Crew Variable (Dep77;Arr85) • Sector Variable (Dep6;Arr11) • Aircraft Variable (Dep1;Arr1) Rule Tables (Dep133;Arr166) Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146) T value definition Raw Data (D-Value: Dep116;Arr141)

18. Crew Functionality Intercrew Communication Pilot Fatigue Pilot Experience TransientFatigue CumulativeFatigue A/C FlyingExperience Airport Familiarity Experience Pairing Rank Composition Comm. Proficiency Airportrecency Specialairport/runway Numbers of previous visits

19. A/C FlyingExperience Flyingrecencyas PF TotalHours Sectors Typelanding EVA typehours Pre-EVAhours EVA hours Landingat rank EVAlanding

20. TransientFatigue Pre-workload Pre-flight Rest In-flight fatigue Previous sectorsflownon this duty period Duty hourssince beginning Duty hoursofthis flight In-flightrest hours In-flightRest Pre-flightrest hours Pre-flightcircadian night Extra crewavailability Crew bunkavailability

21. Cumulative Fatigue Work Amount Rest Previous Flying Schedulestability Rest recency Rest amount Pre-7 daysworkload Pre-90 daysworkload Pre-30 daysworkload

22. Aircraft Functionality DRV & ALRV-related MEL Fleet Items A330 : 64 B747 : 64 B777 : 104 MD11 : 79

23. SectorThreat Airport Weather WeatherComplexity VisualCondition AmbientLight CeilingMargin Visibility Margin CrosswindComponents ConvectiveWx Issues Precipitation

24. Airport ATCFunctionality ApproachComplexity Congestion ATCcontrol quality A/P Familiarity ATCEnglish proficiency Runwaycomplexity Airportbusy hour

25. ApproachComplexity Specialairport/runway FlyingComplexity RunwayComplexity Precisionapproach Approachgo-aroundrate Airportterrain/obstacle Groovedrunway Sunlighteffective issues

26. Conclusion Why we need FORAS? • The core elements of Safety Management System is hazard identification & risk management. FORAS is playing a vital & predictive role on Safety Risk Management.

27. FORAS Promotion Program • Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenue • Airlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund according to its fleet size. • Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee of trustees • The Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future development of FORAS, and other aviation risk management initiatives.

28. Frontend Server DB FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q4 2013. Inference Engine Airline A Internet Frontend Server Inference Models Airline B DB XML Backend Workstation Frontend Server DB Airline C

29. Thank you! Q&A