Mike Sestak & Doug Fox CIRA Susan O ’ Neill & Sue Ferguson USDA Forest Service, Seattle

1. Integration of Wildfire Emissions into Models-3/CMAQ with the Prototypes: Community Smoke Emissions Modeling (CSEM) System and BlueSky Mike Sestak & Doug Fox CIRA Susan O’Neill & Sue Ferguson USDA Forest Service, Seattle Jason Ching NOAA/EPA

2. What is the problem? • Increased use of fire • Agriculture, forestry, military, and rangeland • Competition for air shed

3. Fire Effects - Visibility • IMPROVE program measures visibility & speciated aerosol data representing Class I areas & relates them to each other for the regional haze rule. • Majority of fine particle species emitted from fires are organic and elemental carbon. • Carbonaceous gas to particle conversion is poorly understood. • Wildland fire contributes to the 20% worst visibility days, especially in the west. • Monthly OC contribution to total fine mass reaches 80% in some western US locations, longer term 10-30%. • IMPROVE monitoring suggests a range of 10%-40% of OC (organic carbon contribution to PM2.5) on the high mass days (20% worst visibility) may be from wild fires.

4. On-going research is attempting to quantify fire’s contribution to organic aerosols Organic Carbon % contribution to total extinction Elemental Carbon % contribution to total extinction

5. BlueSky and The Community Smoke Emission Model (CSEM) • Two efforts are underway to Develop Emissions Models for Wildland Burning • BlueSky • Designed to provide real-time estimation of fire emissions for use in a variety of modeling systems: CALPUFF, Hy-Split, CMAQ • CSEM • Designed to provide historical fire emissions estimates for use in CMAQ and REMSAD • Both systems rely upon the Emission Production Model (EPM) and Fuel Consumption Model (CONSUME) used throughout the fire community.

6. System Synergy • The BlueSky and CSEM Systems Complement Eachother • BlueSky: • is an example of where the Fire Community wants to BE. • but we can only be there in the Pacific Northwest because of the unique combination of Agencies, and Reporting and Modeling tools. • CSEM: • is necessary for integrating Fire into CMAQ. • is necessary for historical/scenario simulations. • will be invaluable to getting BlueSky operational in other parts of the country where resources similar to the Pacific Northwest do not exist.

7. Steps Common to Smoke Emission Modeling • Read Fire Description Information • Determine the Fuel Loading • Obtain Local Meteorological Data • Calculate Fuel Consumption (CONSUME) • Calculate CO, CO2, CH4, PM, PM2.5, PM10, and Heat Released (EPM) • Calculate Plume Rise for each Fire. • Integrate Fire Emissions into the Modeling System.

8. What we CSEM is trying to do… • Goal: to build a tool to generate emissions from forest burning for use in regional air quality modeling with the following characteristics: • Scale is regional to national with resolution ranging from 1 km to 36 km; • Temporal resolution from hourly to multi-year; • Chemical species including all NAAQS & visibility components & their precursors; • Accuracy equivalent to other emissions estimates.

9. FIRES Fire Generator (hourly, 1km resolution) Identify Fire Boundaries (daily, 1 km resolution) Read from National Fire Occurrence database Identify vegetation cover & fuel loadings (1 km resolution) Read from NFDR fuel model coverage Modify with National FCC coverage CSEM MM5 Meteorology 2pm local time Temperature; Relative humidity; Cloud cover; Wind speed Daily Temperature range; Relative humidity range Past 7 days Precipitation; Same as above Generate species Emissions & Plume Rise (hourly, regional model resolution) Develop emissions profiles to scale species from EPM generated emissions & to generate hourly emissions distributions. Estimate plume rise based on Briggs at appropriate resolution for the spatial scale of emissions. Calculate Fuel Moisture Content (daily, weekly, regional model resolution) NFDR calculations based onMM5 input for range of variables at 36 km resolution Calculate Fuel Consumption (daily, regional model resolution) Utilize CONSUME to generate fuel consumption and EPM to estimate emissions & heat release rate for each fire.

10. CSEM Approach • Identify fire boundaries; • Identify vegetation & fuels involved; • Calculate fuel moisture content; • Calculate fuel consumption; • Calculate fire emissions; • Speciate fire emissions & calculate plume rise.

11. FIRES Fire Generator (hourly, 1km resolution) Identify Fire Boundaries (daily, 1 km resolution) Read from National Fire Occurrence database Identify fire boundaries • Time, location, & size of fires determined from National Fire Occurrence Database(Hardy, et.al. Missoula Fire Lab.) • Federal & most State fires, from 1986-1996, at 1km resolution in a daily GIS database .

13. Identify vegetation & fuels • Identify NFDR fuel model at 1 km resolution from Bergen, et.al., 1998 • Modify fuel loading, if necessary, using fuel National Current Condition Class coverage (Hardy, et.al. Missoula Fire Lab.) Identify vegetation cover & fuel loadings (1 km resolution) Read from NFDR fuel model coverage Modify with National FCC coverage

15. Calculate Fuel Moisture Content • Use NFDR equations based on data from MM5 including daily temperature & RH range, wind speed, cloud cover, precip. • Drought indices from MM5 • Resolution from MM5 Calculate Fuel Moisture Content (daily, weekly, regional model resolution) NFDR calculations based onMM5 input for range of variables at 36 km resolution

16. Calculate Fuel and Emissions • Use CONSUME with NFDR model estimates of fuel loading & moisture content. • Use EPM to generate PM10, PM2.5, CO & heat release rate. Calculate Fuel Consumption (daily, regional model resolution) Utilize CONSUME to generate fuel consumption and EPM to estimate emissions & heat release rate for each fire.

17. Speciate Emissions and Calculate Plume Rise • Develop emissions profiles from ratios of species to calculated CO emissions from current research results. • Calculate plume rise using Briggs per SASEM Generate species Emissions & Plume Rise (hourly, regional model resolution) Develop emissions profiles to scale species from EPM generated emissions & to generate hourly emissions distributions. Estimate plume rise based on Briggs at appropriate resolution for the spatial scale of emissions.

18. Emissions Speciation CE = CO2 / {CO+CO2+CH4+Cother} MCE = 0.15+.86*CE

19. BlueSkySmoke Modeling Framework • Local and Regional applications • Real-time predictions • Automated, centralized processing • Emission tracking • Predicted of surface concentrations • Quantitative verification • Community model development • Web-access control and output products

20. 1.Burn Plan Data 2.Burn Accomplishments 3.Fuel moisture 4.Ignition pattern Variable rate of heat, gas, & particles Full physical, 3-D, with detailed PBL 1.Regulatory approval 2.NAAQS output 3.Visibility 4.Chemistry Interactive Web Mapping BlueSky: Basic Elements Source Characteristics Weather Emissions Dispersion Output Products

21. BlueSkyRAINS • EPA Rapid Access INformation System (RAINS) • Overlay Data • Static Data - Sensitive Receptors, Geo-Political Boundaries • Transitory Data - Meteorological Data, Trajectories, Smoke Dispersion • Orthogonality of Design - Time, Space, Data • Ability to “Drill-In” to the Data - Burn Reports, Time Series • Turn Fires on and off • Obtain Fire Contribution Information at Receptors

22. The BlueSkyRAINS System MM5 FASTRACS CALMM5/CALMET EPM/CONSUME v1.02 MM52ARL CALMET2netCDF EPM2BAEM CALPUFF HYSPLIT CALPUFF2netCDF PAVE Animations CALPUFF/ArcIMS Linkage (netCDF2SHP (?)) Preliminary BlueSky web page BlueSky Linux System Burn Report Display Time Series Display ArcIMS (SDE, SQLserver) TRAJREAD BlueSkyRAINS Windows System

23. http://www.BlueSkyRAINS.org

24. BlueSkyRAINS:Hysplit forward trajectories

25. BlueSky: Predicted Surface Concentrations

26. BlueSky: Predicted Surface Concentrations

27. USFS/Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Smoke and Meteorology (FireCAMMS)

28. Comparison of CSEM and BlueSky Preliminary Results • Comparative data inputs from 2002 Oregon fire (actual vs. 1996 met) • BlueSky CSEM • Area of Burnsite [acre] 500 500 • 0 - 0.25 inch fuel [tons/acre]1.0 2.9 • 0.25 - 1 inch fuel [tons/acre]2.2 2.3 • 1 - 3 inch fuel [tons/acre]1.6 5.6 • 3 - 9 inch fuel [tons/acre] 5.4 13.2 • 9 - 20 inch fuel [tons/acre] 24.6 0 • 20+ inch fuel [tons/acre]0.1 0 • Duff 8.0 2.5 • Burn-site slope [percent]50 50 • Ignition time [HHMM]1400 1400 • 10-hr fuel moisture 9 13.5 • Surface wind speed (mph) 6 5.5

29. Comparison of CSEM and BlueSky Preliminary Results Heat Released PM10

30. Summary • Two efforts are underway to Develop Emissions Models for Wildland Burning • BlueSky - Uses available Burn Reporting Systems • CSEM - Fire Occurrence Database, NFDRS • Both systems rely upon the Emission Production Model (EPM) and Fuel Consumption Model (CONSUME) and produce similar results. • The BlueSky and CSEM Systems Complement Eachother • BlueSky is an example of where the Fire Community wants to BE. • CSEM is necessary for integrating Fire into CMAQ.