5th Follow up Committee Meeting HIVA-KUL, 6 th October 2009

1. ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measuresCase study: floods OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS 5th Follow up Committee Meeting HIVA-KUL, 6th October 2009 Website: http://www.ulb.ac.be/ceese//ADAPT/Home.html Pr Dr Walter HECQ - Coordinator

2. Context and new elements The methodology general overview Work plan and timing Presentation plan

3. It is known that adaptation measures will be necessary to protect populations and ecosystems against climate-related hazards in the next decades (IPCC, 2001; EEA, 2004). It remains for the policy-maker to select among a wide range of options and possibilities of adaptation measures. In general, the ways and means required to implement these measures appear to be considerable, when compared with the risks to be avoided. The decision-making principles advocated by international programs stipulate that the choice of adaptation measures must reflect their potential to produce benefits which will surpass their costs. Context The overall objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate an efficient management tool being a cost-benefit analysis based instrument for the integrated assessment of adaptation measures.

4. Context - New Elements About climate change • Impacts of Europe’s changing climate- EEA Report (Oct 2008) - Conclusions of the 4th assessment IPCC Reports (Feb 2007), The Stern Review (Nov 2006), the 3rd assessment IPCC reports (2001) are confirmed i.e. Mean winter precipitation in temperate latitudes. Projection for 2100: heavy precipitation will become more frequent About adaptation measures • EU White Paper (1 Apr 2009) Adapting to climate change: towards a European framework for action “Access to (…) the costs and benefits of different adaptation options.” • Guidance on Water and Climate Adaptation (Transboundary basins) - UNECE (Oct 2008) “The four major methods used for prioritizing and selecting adaptation options are cost-benefit analysis, multicriteria analysis, cost effectiveness analysis and expert judgment” • EU Floods DIRECTIVE (Dir 2007/60/EC - 23 Oct 2007) “Flood risk management plans shall take into account relevant aspects such as costs and benefits” • Plan “PLUIES” - Mapping of flooding areas The overall objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate an efficient management tool being a cost-benefit analysis based instrument for the integrated assessment of adaptation measures.

5. ADAPT - Methodology(general overview) Climate change modeling Hydrological modeling CCI-HYDR Water discharge IMPACTS (WP2.1 et WP2.2) Hydraulic modeling(WP2.1) RESPONSE (WP2. 3 et WP2.4) Primary impacts Technical Economic assess.(WP2.2) Non-technical Social assess. (id.) Adaptation measures Environmental assess. (id.) Secondary impacts Evaluation of adaptation measures (WP2.5) = Cost/benefits analysis

6. ADAPT - The methodology(general overview) Workplan Phase 1 1. Evaluating primary impacts of global change induced flooding on river basins (WP2.1) Assessment of flood characteristics and development of flood maps Translating hydraulic modelling results into input for the assessment of secondary impacts Phase 2 • 2. Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding on vulnerable sectors in river basins (WP2.2) • Risk assessment, stock at risk Assessment of environmental, economic and social aspects  Overall assessment of damage • 3. Determining and evaluating adaptation measures (WP2.3 & 2.4) • Definition of both technical and non-technical measures  Overall assessment of costs and benefits of adaptation measures • 4. Cost-benefit analysis (WP2.5) • Implementation of the cost-benefit analysis • Complementary analysis based on impact indicators using criteria analysis (MCA) • Recommendations on adaptation of measures

7. Timing • Phase 1:January 1 2006 to December 31 2007 • WP1 General study and evaluation • WP2 Case study - Floods • WP2.1Evaluating primary impacts of global change induced flooding on river basins • WP2.2Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding • on vulnerable sectors in river basins • WP2.3Determining adaptation measures EVALUATION BY FOREIGN EXPERTS September 24 2007 • Phase 2:January 1 2008 to January 31 2010 • WP2 Case study - Floods • WP2.2Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding on vulnerable • sectors in river basins • WP2.3Determining adaptation measures • WP2.4Evaluating adaptation costs • WP2.5Cost-benefit analysis • WP2.6Recommendations on adaptation of measures

8. AFTERNOON AGENDA 13h15 – 13h25 Introduction to the ADAPT project and the afternoon session – Walter Hecq (CEESE-ULB) 13h25 – 13h50 Adaptation scenarios considered and their expected impact on flooding in the Ourthe and Dender basin – Benjamin Dewals – Niels Van Steenbergen (HACH-ULg – KUL) 13h50 – 14h10 Evaluation of adaptation scenarios – Lieven De Smet (Arcadis)

9. 14h10 – 14h30 Evaluation of the direct tangible costs of flood damage and of the direct costs of adaptation scenarios – Eve Giron – Hélène Joachain (CEESE-ULB) 14h30 – 14h45 Evaluation of social flood risk– Ingrid Coninx (HIVA-KUL) 14h45 – 15h00 Evaluation of ecological impacts and opportunities – Jan Staes (ECOBE-UA) 15h00 – 15h10 Compilation of information on adaptation measures – Eve Giron (CEESE-ULB) 15h10 – 15h20 Conclusions, planning, prospect – Lieven De Smet (Arcadis) 15h20 - … Discussion

10. THANK YOU!