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Drought Outlook Discussion for August 2016

Drought Outlook Discussion for August 2016. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Call in number 877-680-3341 Passcode : 858747. Drought Monitor. Drought areas Southern California and Western region AZNM- a weak monsoon Tennessee Valley

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Drought Outlook Discussion for August 2016

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  1. Drought Outlook Discussionfor August 2016 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought Call in number 877-680-3341 Passcode : 858747

  2. Drought Monitor Drought areas • Southern California and Western region • AZNM- a weak monsoon • Tennessee Valley • Ohio , Penn and Northeast 2003 2000 % of the CONUS cove

  3. P anomalies over the United States July • Dryness over the Northeast (3 months) • Weak monsoon over the AZNM • Dry Texas • Dry Southeast • Wet North Central Recent 30 days rainfall anomaly La Nina infleunce Base period 1951-2010

  4. Monsoon Daily rainfall over Arizona and New Mexico Below normal over most places AZ NM Thanks Wei Shi

  5. SPI drought areas: • California south of 36N, Southern states • Northeast • Ohio Valley, Michigan and Pennsylvania, N.Y.

  6. June Streamflow (USGS) • Dryness over the Northwest improving • Southern California, AZ • Northeast, Ohio , Pennsylvania, N.Y. • Southeast :Georgia Feb mean 2016 April June 14-day map of low flow areas

  7. Mean drought indices based on the EMC NLDAS Integrated Drought index=mean of SRI3, SMP and SPI3 and mapped to a uniform distribution Concurrence measure- % of members agree with the IDI Thanks for the CPO funding to make this possible

  8. Mean Tfor July

  9. ssta ENSO neutral but La Nina watch is on La Niña is slightly favored to develop during August - October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17. • OLRA shows suppressed convection over the Tropical Pacific

  10. 60% chance for La Nina to develop in NDJ, 55% in DJF • La Nina watch is on JAS JFM 2017

  11. NMME SSTA fcsts DJF 2017 SON 2016 The pattern is the same but cold SSTA in the Tropical Pacific weakens a bit

  12. ASO La Nina Precipitation Composites From cpc enso website

  13. Rainfall and Temp forecasts SON 2016 SON 2016 Not a confident forecasts Spread is large except the dryness over the Northeast

  14. GFS 1-7 and 8-14 fcstsp anom 11-17 aug fcst anomaly 18-24 aug fcst anomaly

  15. CPC seasonal outlook P ASO Temp ASO

  16. SPI6 SPI3 SPI6 SPI3 SPI forecasts ICs Jul 2016 August 2016 September 2016 / October 2016

  17. September 2016 October 2016 Nov 2016

  18. ESP UCLA/UW MSU Lifeng Luo Target date August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 Hydro climate Fcsts

  19. Summary ENSO • We are in a ENSO neutral condition, but La Nina watch is on • There is about 50-60% probability for La Nina to develop in DJF Current conditions: • Drought conditions in Southeast ,Tennessee, Southern California and the Northeast, from Ohio to New York • Dry monsoon so far Prediction • ENSO There is about 50-60% probability for La Nina to develop in DJF • Drought: . • Normal to wet monsoon • Dry conditions persist over the Northeast for one-two months

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