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Solar Variation and Climate

Solar Variation and Climate. Hunter Clasen 4/26/11 EAS 4480. Introduction. Does the 11-year sunspot cycle control variation in solar flux? Is there a correlation between solar flux and SST? Three time series (1950-2010) Sunspots Solar Flux GMSST (global mean sea surface temperature).

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Solar Variation and Climate

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  1. Solar Variation and Climate Hunter Clasen 4/26/11 EAS 4480

  2. Introduction • Does the 11-year sunspot cycle control variation in solar flux? • Is there a correlation between solar flux and SST? • Three time series (1950-2010) • Sunspots • Solar Flux • GMSST (global mean sea surface temperature)

  3. Periodogram: Sunspots Periodogram: Solar Flux Coherence: Sunspots and Solar Flux Correlation Coefficient: .9956 P = 0.0000 (Both time series are detrended)

  4. Solar Flux and GMSST Correlation Coefficient: -0.0080 P = 0.9832 Correlation Coefficient (1960-2000): 0.2242 P = 0.0000

  5. CPSD: Solar Flux and GMSST

  6. Phase Spectrum Lag = 15 τ = 11 years ∆t = .5 years

  7. Coherence

  8. Lomb-scargle: Solar Flux Power Frequency (Hz)

  9. Lomb-scargle: GMSST Power Frequency (Hz)

  10. Solar Flux and GMSST • detrended yearly averages used instead of monthly data • GMSST smoothed with 3 year running mean Correlation Coefficient: 0.1627 P = 0.2103 Correlation Coefficient (1960-2000): 0.4212 P = 0.0055

  11. Coherence: Solar Flux and GMSST

  12. Conclusion • The variation in solar flux is strongly correlated with the sunspot cycle • Solar flux has a strong effect on SST • SST is also affected by other processes: • Greenhouse effect • Ocean circulation

  13. Sources NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/ • MATLAB sunspot data

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