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NTTS Satellite event 17 February Brussels Hugo de Bondt

Dutch growth accounts, intangibles and choice of ICT deflators. NTTS Satellite event 17 February Brussels Hugo de Bondt. Background. ICT deflators vary Byrne & Corrado 2016: “ Offi cial prices are found to substantially understate ICT price declines .”

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NTTS Satellite event 17 February Brussels Hugo de Bondt

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  1. Dutch growth accounts, intangibles and choice of ICT deflators NTTSSatellite event 17 FebruaryBrussels Hugo de Bondt

  2. Background • ICT deflatorsvary • Byrne & Corrado 2016: • “Officialprices are found to substantially understate ICT price declines.” • “The paper's primary conclusion is that real ICT price declines remain squarely in negative territory”

  3. Byrne and Corrado results

  4. Eurostat data on deflators • Deflators for computers in most EU member states go down:

  5. Computer prices (derived from net stocks) Source: Eurostat

  6. Eurostat data on deflators • But for software the picture is more mixed:

  7. Software prices (derived from net stocks) Source: Eurostat

  8. Implications for growth accounts • Deflators for computers differ from software • Allow for (more) quality-increases in software and telecommunications equipment • thereby adjusting the capital contribution

  9. Implications for growth accounts • 2012-2014 Research project ICT & economicgrowth • Financedbyministry of EconomicAffairs • Describe the role of ICT in the Dutch Economy • Replication of Chapter 3 in ICT and Economic Growth: • Use computer deflators for software and telecommunications equipment • Growth accounts based on ESA 2010;

  10. Implicationsforgrowth accounts • Dutch Growth Accounts • Based on ESA 2010 • Y-KLEMSand VA-KL • Both ex-ante andex-post rates of return tocapital • 2001-2015 • Commercial sector

  11. Implications for growth accounts

  12. Implications for growth accounts • Capital contribution more than doubles • Mainly because of the software-contribution • Telecommunication is larger, but are still zero due to its relative small cost share within capital services • Not yet researched: • Also the volume-change of value added changes (through own-account production) • This then changes the estimate of mfp (by the ratio of the value-added difference and the capital services difference)

  13. References • Byrne, D. and C. Corrado, ‘ICT prices and ICT services; what do they tell us about productivity and technology?’, The Conference Board EPWP Series #16-05 (2016). • Statistics Netherlands, ICT and Economic Growth, (The Hague/ Heerlen 2015).

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