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Developing Predictive Hypotheses: Understanding Cognitive, Non-Cognitive, and Personality Criteria

This chapter explores the development of predictive hypotheses by defining concepts and operational definitions of predictors and criteria. It clarifies the distinctions between theory, hypothesis, predictors (KSAOs, or other attributes), and criteria (outcomes), emphasizing their roles in experimental research. The chapter discusses the importance of cognitive abilities, the Five Factor Model of personality, and the relevance of context and learning curves. It aims to provide a thorough understanding of how these elements interplay in predicting performance across different populations and occupations.

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Developing Predictive Hypotheses: Understanding Cognitive, Non-Cognitive, and Personality Criteria

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  1. Chapter 3Developing Predictive Hypotheses Cognitive & Non Cog Abilities Personality Criteria Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  2. Conceptual & Operational DefinitionsPredictors & Criteria • F. Kerlinger’s definitions • Concept or construct: What’s the difference? • Theory v. hypothesis: what’s the difference? • Predictive Hypothesis: • Grounded in theory (explanation relationships) • Predictors & Criteria: defined at two levels: • conceptual & operational: What’s the difference? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  3. Predictors (KSAOs, other attributes) • (independent vars for experimental research) • Give some examples with operational definitions • Criteria (performance/results) • Outcomes (dependent vars for experimental research) • Give some examples with operational definitions Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  4. Theory Building and Testing fig 3.1 p 53 • 1. Theory: • predictor construct(height) is related to • criterion construct(basketball ability) • 2. Predictive hypothesis (testable): • predictor measure(height in inches) is related to • Criterion measure(number dunks in 2 minutes) • 3. Predictor measureis valid measure of height • 4. Criterion measureis a valid measure of basketball ability • 5. Predictor measureis related to the Criterion construct • (confirms prediction and supports theory) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  5. Theory and Practice • Specification of Population • For what populations does the theory hold? • Why would this be important? • Give some examples, • e.g. women in the military? • Geographical differences? • Specification of time intervals • What’s the optimal timeframe for criterion collection? • When and how long should the criterion? • Give examples for jobs with different learning curves Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  6. Specifying functional relationships • Linear • Give examples linear relationships • Curvilinear • Give examples of curvilinear relationships Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  7. Criteria • Criterion constructs • Inferring Constructs from Measures • A theory of Performance • Performance Components and Determinants • Contextual Behavior • Trainability Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  8. Predictors & Predictive Hypotheses • Avoid “folklore theories” • Use standardized measures proven to work • E.g. Cognitive ability, which is usually superior to non-cognitive measures. • Cognitive Factors (ability to think) • perceive, process, evaluate, compare, create, • Understand, manipulate (ideas), reason • 75 years of Factor Analytic studies Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  9. Cognitive • 7 Primary Mental abilities (Thurstone, ‘38) • Verbal comprehension • Word fluency • Spatial ability • Perceptual speed • Numerical facility • Memory • Inductive reasoning Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  10. Cognitive Abilities • General Mental Ability (GMA) intelligence • “Processes of • Acquiring, • Storing (memory) • Retrieving • Combining, (relationships) • Comparing, (relationships) • Using in context new concepts (abstraction)” • (Humphreys, ‘79) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  11. GMA • Spearman’s (1927)“g” • Fluid intelligence (Gf) • Basic reasoning • Crystallized intelligence (Gc) • Acquired knowledge (e.g. vocabulary tests) • Carroll (1993) using factor analytic studies • Three stratum model • First order factors (several) • Second order factors (R. B. Cattell’sGf, Gc) • Third order “g” (like Spearman’s) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  12. Job Specific Ks & Ss • O*Net – three occupational skills list • Basic • Cross functional • Occupation specific • Think of some for the IO psychologist’s job Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  13. Personality Constructs • Trait – habitual way of thinking or behaving in response to a variety of situations. • Value, goal, beh tendency to seek or avoid • Sometimes role specific • Called “work styles” “occupational values” (O*Net) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  14. Personality • Five Factor Model (universal) • NEO (CANOE) • Guion & Highhouse • Surgency (extravert, dominance, assertive) • Agreeableness (likeability, friendly) • Conscientiousness (responsible, dependable) • Emotional Stability • Open to experience (intellectance) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  15. Personality • Integrity and conscientiousness • Not engaging in counter-productive behavior • Stealing, • embezzlement • cheating customers • Others? • Trustworthy • Work hard without surveillance Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  16. Personality • Other traits (just a few) • Core Self-evaluation (Judge, Eraz, Bono) • Locus of Control (Rotter) • Smith, Trompenaars & Dugan (2007) • PA/NA (positive/ negative affect) • Watson, Clark, Lee Tellegen (1988) • GCOS • General Causality Scale Description (Deci & Ryan) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  17. Personalitysome questions • Are traits malleable? • Are they job specific? • How, if so should they be used in selection? • What needs to be done to improve their use? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  18. Physical and Sensory CompetenciesWhat effect has ADA had? • Physical Characteristics • At what cost are accommodations to the workplace (for ADA?) • Find some examples? • What role does human factors play? • Physical Abilities • Fleishman, Hogan (have studied them) • Are they important in sports? • Are they important in the military? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  19. Non-Cognitive • Emotional Intelligence (Goleman, ‘95) • Perceive, appraise, express emotions • (Mayer & Salovey, ‘97) • Lacks conceptual coherence • Not psychometrically sound • Redundant with other measures? • E.g. cognitive ability, personality traits? • (Matthews, Roberts, & Zeidner, ‘04) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  20. Experience, Education, Training • Credentials are rarely useful • Unless based on a Job Analysis • Some majors may be useful • If knowledge is comparable to professions • Can you think of some? • Can competencies be assessed via testing? • What would Prometricsay? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  21. Team Selection Predictors • Technical (often needed) • Stevens & Campion (‘94) Team KSAs • Interpersonal & Self-management • The knowledge, skill, and ability requirements for teamwork: Implications for human resource management (Michael J. Stevens Michael A. Campion, ‘94) • Staffing Work Teams: Development and Validation of a Selection Test for Teamwork Settings (Stevens & Campion, ‘99) • Selection in Teams: An Exploration of the Teamwork Knowledge, Skills, and Ability Test (McClough & Rogelberg, ‘03) • Use of situational judgment tests to predict job performance: A clarification of the literature. (McDaniel, et al. ‘01) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

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