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A Platform Structure for Behavioral Models. By Dr. E. L. Perry Northrop Grumman. Methodology for Analysis. Use Values, beliefs, worldview Operational history Perceptions, motivations Current capabilities Situational factors Decision processes

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a platform structure for behavioral models

A Platform Structure for Behavioral Models

By

Dr. E. L. Perry

Northrop Grumman

methodology for analysis
Methodology for Analysis
  • Use
    • Values, beliefs, worldview
    • Operational history
    • Perceptions, motivations
    • Current capabilities
    • Situational factors
    • Decision processes
  • To infer probable intent and likely behavior
methodology 2
Methodology (2)
  • Use
    • Probable intent and likely behavior
    • Vulnerabilities
    • Susceptibilities
    • Accessibility
  • To create
    • Recommendations for decision maker
the problem
The Problem
  • Can we build a computer model from the analyst’s methodology?
    • Capture the input
    • Use it to predict and model the range of responses expected from this adversary
    • Use the model in war games
motivation cultural dimensions
Motivation – Cultural Dimensions
  • Website for Geert Hofstede. http://www.geert-hofstede.com/
  • Website for Fons Trompenaars and Charles Hampton-Turner. http://changingminds.org/explanations/culture/trompenaars_culture.htm
inputs from the analyst
Inputs from the Analyst
  • Each input is a statistical normal distribution
  • Range for mean is -100 to 100
  • Example: For the value of “life” input, a value of 100 would indicate a high value for human life, a value of 0 would indicate a neutral value for human life while a value of -100 would indicate a complete disregard for human life.
  • Uncertainty is 0 to 50 representing the 3-sigma uncertainty of the information
  • Example: If analyst inputs 0 for the mean value of a parameter with uncertainty of 50 then the computer model is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and sigma of 50/3 = 16.66
a decision box
A Decision Box
  • For each of the 42 coordinates define an upper (u) and lower (l) bound for the box on this coordinate

-100 < l <= u < 100

The computer generates a random value from the distribution of each parameter. If all 42 values fall between the upper and lower bounds then the decision is “yes” otherwise it is “no.”

summary
Summary
  • Developed a way for an analyst to build a computer model of an adversary using the normal analysis process
  • Models show the range of behavior expected from the adversary
  • Currently used in war games
  • Research continues toward a predictive model