Patrick j ayd and joshua w scheck noaa national weather service bismarck nd
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Patrick J. Ayd and Joshua W. Scheck NOAA/National Weather Service – Bismarck, ND. 20 May 2009 HeatBurst Across South Central North Dakota. Outline. How rare are heat bursts? Ingredients for a heat burst? Review of the 20 May 2009 Heat Burst Significance in operations. How Rare Are They?.

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Patrick j ayd and joshua w scheck noaa national weather service bismarck nd

Patrick J. Ayd and Joshua W. Scheck

NOAA/National Weather Service – Bismarck, ND

20 May 2009 HeatBurst Across South Central North Dakota


Outline
Outline

  • How rare are heat bursts?

  • Ingredients for a heat burst?

  • Review of the 20 May 2009 Heat Burst

  • Significance in operations


How rare are they
How Rare Are They?

  • In order for a heat burst to be noticed it either has to be reported by a spotter, or seen within surface observational data.

    • How often do spotters not report weather phenomena?

    • Would you notice a rapid rise in temperature at a non ASOS site?


How rare are they1
How Rare Are They?

  • Dependent on the density of the observational network, and actually having the phenomena pass over the sensors.

  • Do we actively seek to find a heat burst?


How rare are they2
How Rare Are They?

  • The rarity of a heat burst may be due in large part to our inability to sense microscale events and properly analyze all data sources to acknowledge their presence.


Heat burst
Heat Burst

  • Ingredients:

    • High LCL

    • Large subcloud dewpoint depression

    • Shallow nocturnal inversion – How shallow?

    • Cumulonimbus cloud/Downdraft initiation



07 utc 850 hpa ruc analysis
07 UTC 850 hPa RUC Analysis


07 utc 500 hpa ruc analysis
07 UTC 500 hPa RUC Analysis


07 utc 700 500 hpa lapse rate
07 UTC 700-500 hPa Lapse Rate





7 utc 20 may 2009 proximity nam bufr sounding
7 UTC 20 May 2009ProximityNAM BUFR Sounding


00 utc 20 may 2009 bismarck sounding
00 UTC 20 May 2009Bismarck Sounding





0705 utc kbis 0 5 velocity
0705 UTC KBIS 0.5° Velocity


Heat burst 7 miles south of st anthony
Heat Burst 7 Miles South of St. Anthony

  • 235 am CDT 20 May 2009

  • Two thermometers in spotter’s yard read 90.5 and 95.6 respectively.

  • 8 foot corral doors blown 25 ft from their rail road ties



Tatanka prairie raws
Tatanka Prairie RAWS



Significance
Significance

  • How does this play into operations?


Significance1
Significance

  • Low POD, High FAR for any attempts at High Wind Warnings.

  • Best served by Nowcasts, SPS and AFDs

    • Be sure to include inherent uncertainty in the timing, location and severity of the event.

  • Can we tell the difference between a shallow inversion that can be displaced and one that cannot?


Questions
Questions

  • Thank You