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The Economic Phases Comparison Study: Soft vs. Hard Landings in 2007/2008

This report from Dr. Gernot Nerb of the Ifo Institute examines the potential economic scenarios for 2007/2008, comparing the likelihood of a soft landing akin to 1995/1996 or a hard landing like in 1973/1974/1975 and 1990/1991/1992/1993. Analyzing the business cycles and industry trends, it provides insights into current business conditions and future expectations in the manufacturing sector.

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The Economic Phases Comparison Study: Soft vs. Hard Landings in 2007/2008

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  1. Comparisons of Downswing Phases Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute November 2007 OECD-EU Workshop

  2. Which scenario is most likely in 2007/ 2008 ?

  3. Soft landing as in 1995/1996 or 1998/1999

  4. … or hard landing as in 1973/1974/1975 or 1990/1991/1992/1993 ?

  5. 30 Upswing Boom Jan. 2004 20 10 October 2007 0 Jan. 2003 -10 -20 WTC Attack Sept. 11 -30 Downswing Recession -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Ifo Business Cycle Clock - Manufacturing Industry1) Assessment of current business situation vs. business expectations Jan. 2006 Jan. 2000 Jan. 2007 Jan. 1998 Jan. 2005 Expectations for the next 6 months Jan. 2001 Jan. 1999 Jan. 2002 Current business situation 1) Manufacturing industry including food, beverages and tobacco.Balances, seasonally adjusted. Sources: Ifo Business Survey, Germany.

  6. Good chances for a soft landing Thank you

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