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The US Presidency and American Foreign Policy

The US Presidency and American Foreign Policy. The Most Powerful Job on Earth. Presidential Powers. Article 2, Section 1: Executive Power in a Prez and VP for 4 years Article 2, Section 2: Commander-in-Chief Pardons Make treaties Nominate and appoint and fill vacancies.

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The US Presidency and American Foreign Policy

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  1. The US Presidency and American Foreign Policy The Most Powerful Job on Earth

  2. Presidential Powers • Article 2, Section 1: • Executive Power in a Prez and VP for 4 years • Article 2, Section 2: • Commander-in-Chief • Pardons • Make treaties • Nominate and appoint and fill vacancies

  3. Presidential Powers • Article 2, Section 3: • Information on State of the Union • Convene Special Congressional Sessions • Receive Foreign ambassadors • Article 2, Section 4: • Removed by Impeachment for treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanors

  4. Presidential Powers • 20th Amendment: • Changed term to begin January 20 • 22nd Amendment: • 2 terms • 25th Amendment: • Presidential succession and disability

  5. Presidential Expectations • Chief of State • Chief Executive • Commander-in-Chief • Chief Diplomat • Chief Legislator • Party Chief • Voice of the people • Protector of the Peace • Manager of the Prosperity • World leader ALL AT THE SAME TIME!!

  6. Presidential Limitations • Congress • Courts • Bureaucracy • Federalism • Capitalism • Public • Time • Outside Forces

  7. Evolution of the Presidency • Traditional “Do Nothing” Presidency • “Modern Presidency” • greater formal and informal powers for initiative • increased staff and advisory capacity • Brownlow Commission Report (1937) • EOP (1939) • agenda setter • most visible national actor

  8. Presidential Leadership • No-Win Presidency? • Lead by Command or by Persuasion? • The President’s Helpers • The One, The Few, or The Many?

  9. Advising the President The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

  10. The Good: Brent Scowcroft (?) • NSA to Ford and “41” • General, USAF (ret.) • PhD Columbia • (pic courtesy www.scowcroft.com)

  11. The Bad: John M. Poindexter (!) • NSA to Reagan ’85-86 • Vice Admiral, USN (ret.) • convicted in 1990 of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and destruction of evidence in connection with the Iran-Contra affair • Overturned on appeal • (Don Rypka-AFP) • Condi is a close second?

  12. The Ugly: You pick…

  13. The “First” • McGeorge Bundy • JFK and LBJ, 1961-1966 • Harvard’s Dean of the Faculty at 34 • 1919-1996 • Actually the first was Robert Cutler for Ike

  14. The Current • Stephen J. Hadley • Rice’s Deputy • CIA called him twice to waive off the Niger uranium story • Lawyer, and worked at the Scowcroft Group • NSC (Staff) in Ford administration (NATO and Europe) • b. 1947, Toledo, OH • BA, Cornell (’69) ; JD, Yale (’72) (Pic stolen from usinfo.state.gov)

  15. It’s MY power! • National Security Act 1947 • NSC • JCS • SecDef (et al.) • CIA • Increasing reliance on NSC staff • Centralization of policymaking in the White House

  16. OK, not really all “in” the White House: Eisenhower (Old) Executive Office Building

  17. Advising the President • Short Run Advantages for the President • Long Run Disadvantages for the Presidency? • Principal-Agent Relationships

  18. Advising the President • Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980)

  19. Staffing Systems(Ideal Types) • Formalistic • Competitive • Collegial

  20. Formalistic Systems

  21. Formalistic Systems

  22. More Formalism

  23. Competitive System

  24. Collegial Model

  25. Decision-Making Tasks • Survey Objectives • Canvass Alternatives • Search for Information • Assimilate and Process New and Discrepant Information • Evaluate Costs, Risks, Implications • Develop Implementation, Monitoring, and Contingency Plans

  26. Irving Janis: Groupthink Process-Outcomes

  27. Process-Outcome Link? • Herek, G. M., I. Janis and P. Huth, Decision Making during International Crisis: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome? Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (1987): 203-226. • Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow“The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink,” International Studies Quarterly 46 (March 2002): 45-68. • Figure from John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer, International Politics on the World Stage (Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2004, 5/ed brief edition)

  28. Getting it Right • George: Multiple Advocacy • Not sure I can tell you how to guarantee success, but I can tell you how to nearly guarantee failure. And scandal.

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