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Navigating the Winds of Change in the Energy Sector

The U.S. is transitioning into a new energy era, with reductions in oil, coal, and carbon emissions. While these changes are positive, the long-term sustainability remains uncertain. Wind and solar power hold great potential, but challenges in grid access and growth rates persist. The impact of transportation on electric vehicles is closely tied to the source of electricity. Generalizations about civilization and emissions reduction strategies are up for debate. Can countries truly gain a competitive advantage by cutting carbon emissions rapidly?

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Navigating the Winds of Change in the Energy Sector

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  1. Winds of Change • “The US has entered a new energy era, ending a century of rising carbon emissions”  way too soon to know • 2008 decreases: • 5% less oil (true) • 1% less coal (true) • 3% lower carbon emissions (true) • All good news …

  2. But only if • Those rates sustain themselves over the next 20 years! • Yes demand is falling because of economic conditions – do we really expect this to continue? • 102 wind farms  8400 Megawatts of electricity generating capacity  but is this a little or a lot?

  3. Wind and Solar • “300,000 MW” of wind projects await access to the grid  how do you know; in principle 3 TW await access • Solar Cell Installations growing at 40% a year  sounds good, but is this fast enough for solar to effectively replace coal fired electricity?

  4. Transportation • “Gains” in electric/plug-in hybrid vehicles depends critically on source of electricity • At 52% coal fired electricity, nationally, there is little to no gain and in fact, in principle, we would have to build new (coal) generation to charge up EVs  that would be beyond stupid

  5. Big Generalizations • “Civilization is in Trouble” • When is “civilization” not in trouble …? • China’s strategy is “changing fast”  how would anyone know? China is still building a dirty coal plant each week … until that stops, there is no change.

  6. A flawed premise? • “The countries that cut carbon emissions fastest will have a competitive advantage” • Why? • Does anyone really believe this? • Competitive advantage in what context?

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